CanPol - Fall election: Do we have an issue yet?

[ShaneWalter]

41% is very close to majority territory I think.

The problem is that if Harper decides to use the "The opposition isn't being cooperative so we're calling an election" card again, I think the Conservative's numbers would plummet.

The only way he can sustain those numbers is if the opposition brings down the government. At the same time, he has to try to look like he is cooperating, so he doesn't give the opposition a "hidden agenda" they can campaign with.

Harper would be walking a very delicate line if he caused an election. If these polling numbers stay the same (or improve for the Conservatives), I think this minority parliament will limp along for a very long time.

[Ben Kenobi]

With these numbers:

Conservatives +26 in Ontario.
Liberals -23
NDP -3

With 5 marginal ridings >= 1 pct.

Mississauga-East Cooksville
Mississauga-Brampton South
Mississauga-South
Mississauga-Streetsville
Brampton-Springdale
Brampton-West
Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Scarborough Southwest
Willowdale
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Etobicoke-Centre
York Centre

Vaughan
Richmond Hill
Ajax-Pickering
Pickering-Scarbourough East

Sudbury
Nipissing-Timiskaming
Sault Ste Marie

Don Valley-West
Eglinton-Lawrence

Kingston and the Islands
Welland
Ottawa-South
Guelph
London North Centre

[Ben Kenobi]

Electoral Results BC:

Interesting, the decimation of the NDP out west.

Conservatives: +10
Liberals -2
NDP -8

Esquimault-Juan de Fuca
Vancouver-Kingsway
Victoria
Burnaby-New Westminster
Vancouver-South
Burnaby-Douglas
BC Southern Interior
Skeena-Bulkley Valley
Nanaimo-Cowichan
Vancouver Island North

Out west:

Conservatives +2
NDP -2

Elmwood-Transcona
Edmonton-Sherwood Park

[Ben Kenobi]

And despite the reporting to the contrary, the CPC holds half their seats in Quebec, even with 15 percent of the vote.

CON -5
NDP -1
BQ -1
LIB +7

Roberval-Lac St Jean (BQ)
Charlesbourg-Haute-St.Charles (BQ)
Beauport-Limilou (BQ)
Jonquiere-Alma (BQ)
Pontiac (LIB)

Outrement (LIB)

Brome-Missiquoi (LIB)
Haute-Gaspesie-La Matis (LIB)
Gatineau (LIB)
Jeanne-Le Ber (LIB)
Ahuntsic (LIB)

[Ben Kenobi]

Overall results:

Conservatives + 38 - 5 (+33)
Liberals (-23+7 -2) (-18)
NDP (-1-8-3-2) (-14)
BQ (-1)

Standings: (143+33) + (77-18) + (49-1) + (37-14) =

176 CON
59 LIB
48 BQ
23 NDP

[Flubber]

Actually good luck for Iggy. I don't think he actually wanted to win the vote now that it arrived.

And with the latest numbers Iggy is loving that he lost that particular vote. I expect that Ignatieuf will suddenly find reasons to co-operate with the CPC if ever the others try to bring them down but in the meantime he can enjoy "opposing them" while hoping that such opposition increases his popularity.

I read a story that did a detailed analysis of the numbers and apparently the perception of Ignatieuf as an arrogant elitist is growing and his appeal to women voters in particular is waning. I hate negative advertizing but there can be little doubt that it is effective

Meanwhile Harper is " Getting by with a little help from my friends"-- Singing at an arts gala struck me as a brilliant move to humanize Harper. It won't repair his relationship with the arts communities but its a start.

After many mis-steps in previous campaigns I suspect that Harper is FINALLY starting to hit his stride in the public perception wars. Seeing him at a piano singing a Beatles song -- wow-- It seems he is finally getting good advice on that front.


Hopefully these number may mean no election for a while. Harper should survive by cobbling together support on an issue by issue basis. Hopefully the result will be measures good for Canada-- All I know for sure is that there likely will be a backlash against anyone seen to be the one forcing us to another election. Heck , part of ther Liberals bad numbers are from TRYING to get us in one

[Wezil]

Seeing him at a piano singing a Beatles song -- wow-- It seems he is finally getting good advice on that front.

At a "gala" he publicly trashed a year before.

All anyone paying attention sees is a hypocrite.

[notyoueither]

Check your needle, Wezil. I think it's stuck.

[Wezil]

Sorry but Harper can put on all the pretty blue sweaters he wants and he's still the same old Harper. Not all of us fall for the shiny things put out by PR advisors.

[notyoueither]

I've been hoping for alternatives to the Tories, but watching your head explode if Harper gets a majority might be worth it.

[Wezil]

It's starting to look like the Liberal Party will have to completely dissolve for that to happen. No matter how bad the Liberal Party gets the CPC still can't win us over. As someone pointed out earlier, the surest way for Harper to not win a majority is for him to seem like he wants one. Why do you think that is?

[Asher]

It's starting to look like the Liberal Party will have to completely dissolve for that to happen. No matter how bad the Liberal Party gets the CPC still can't win us over. As someone pointed out earlier, the surest way for Harper to not win a majority is for him to seem like he wants one. Why do you think that is?

Ontario, rightfully so, distrusts the west.

[Flubber]

I've been hoping for alternatives to the Tories, but watching your head explode if Harper gets a majority might be worth it.

Ditto

wezil most voters don't pay that close attention-- all they see is Harper in what looks like a human type moment

[Wezil]

Yes Flubber, but they also remember Harper's reptile moments. It's why the pretty sweater didn't work.

Harper has been around long enough for us to get to know him. We have already evaluated him and found him wanting.

[Asher]

If that were really true, his ratings wouldn't be going up.