CanPol - Fall election: Do we have an issue yet?

[Flubber]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1278722/

Current polls put the Tories 5 points ahead of the Liberals: 35 to 30%. Why the **** are we pushing for the 3rd election in 3 years again? It'll be another tory minority. What a ****ing waste of time and money.

More important may be how things look for the Bloc and NDP-- if they look to lose out on an election now, they may find a way to continue to support the government (if Harper doesn't try to rub their noses in it by proposing stuff they simply cannot support)--


If the LIberals are stronger, a fair chunk of that has to come at the expense of the NDP-- In fact an intellectual urbane sort like Ignatieuf strikes me as someone that could eat into some of the NDP's core vote--

My bottom line is the same as the last time. I don't want an election unlrss there is some real defining issue or some real probability of some real change-- I don't want to see another conservative minority that sputters along for a year until it gets brought down yet again. How many times will we have to give essentially the same results before the politicos realize they just need to find a way to make it work

[Flubber]

I just read the details on that latest poll and it appears that the bloc support is pretty strong and unlikely to waver. Apparently the Bloc is getting good support even from francophone federalists as they are seen as the best party for Quebec. Apparently the sponsorship scandal is still an issue and Ignatieuf has not made major inroads in Quebec to date.

The west is firmly conservative and in Ontario the numbers haven't changed enough to fundamentally change the makeup of the House of Commons. Oh and according to these numebrs, the NDP is holding their support . heck even the seatless Greens are supported by 11 percent.

So if these numbers are accurate, an election right now would likely see yet another conservative minority with perhaps them ceding 10 seats. They would still be the largest party by far and the choices would yet again be a Conservative minority or some alliance. However unless an NDP- Liberal alliance can get majority numbers between them, I see no reason why that "combined" minority government would be preferable to a Conservative minority. IN fact it would probably worse since the NDP and Liberals would never be able to get out of "potential election soon" mode if they were relying on the BLoc and Conservatives to keep them alive

Is there any benefit to the MP's themselves from all these elections? I don't know but I seemed to recall some benefits that were based on serving a certain number of "terms". I absolutely could be wrong on that

[Wezil]

I believe the MP's benefits are based upon years rather than terms.

I get a gut feeling the numbers will break one way or another during the campaign. Iggy will either soar (appearing less likely as the days go by) or he will crash leaving the Libs looking for a new leader.

How many more shots will the Conservatives give Harper?

[Flubber]

How many more shots will the Conservatives give Harper?

I don't know. His inability to win a majority against the complete ineptitude that was Dion made me wonder if the knives would come out but so far if there is any dissent, it is pretty well hidden. perhaps the fact that he did come closer to a majority and it was tantilizingly in reach was enough to keep him at the helm.

personally I would prefer the Conservatives were led by someone with less ties to the righty nutjob branch of the party. Oh and if that person could have a little warmth please.

[Wezil]

Harper has been a godsend for the federal lawyers. This morning's news has Democracy Watch as the latest group taking the feds to court.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1971675

[Wezil]

Is there any benefit to the MP's themselves from all these elections? I don't know but I seemed to recall some benefits that were based on serving a certain number of "terms". I absolutely could be wrong on that

According to a Star article from last year it would appear 6 years is the threshold.

A total of 65 ex-MPs from the last Parliament qualify for generous pension benefits or a $77,700 severance payment if they were not MPs for the six years required to qualify for a pension.

http://www.thestar.com/federalelection/article/518904

[ShaneWalter]

How many more shots will the Conservatives give Harper?

Following Stockwell Day's leadership, the Canadian Alliance had become a joke. Stockwell Day had most of the country against him, and many influential MP's within the Canadian Alliance were moving against him. The party was imploding, and it had been looking like the party would be completely irrelevent when another election was called. I think the CA was polling under 10% at one point. After Harper won the leadership of the CA in 2002, he rebuilt support, merged with the PC's, followed that up by forced the Liberals into a minority government, and followed that up by winning a minority government himself in 2006. In the 2008 election, the CPC increased the amount of seats they held by 19, just 11 seats of a majority.

In every election Harper since Harper became leader, he has done better than the previous election. This is hardly a case of the party giving him more and more chances. Harper may not appear as the most warm guy, but I firmly believe if anybody else had won leadership of the CA in 2002, Paul Martin would be Prime Minister right now, and the Bloc would probably be official opposition. A somewhat sobering thought is that in the 2002 leadership convention, while Harper recieved 55% of the vote, Stockwell Day was in second place with 37%. After his disastrous leadership, he still managed to secure 37% support.

[Wezil]

I don't think anyone is arguing Harper failed to build the party.

What he has failed at is forming a majority government when all the pieces were in place to do it. He failed against the backdrop of the sponsorship scandal and he failed again last fall (in the election he called) to do it against a lifeless Liberal party under Dion. Harper appears to have topped out at a minority.

[ShaneWalter]

Harper has been a godsend for the federal lawyers. This morning's news has Democracy Watch as the latest group taking the feds to court.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1971675

There's two things about that article. First of all, they point out Chretien calling a snap election "before Stockwell Day could consolidate his leadership." Granted, that is basically what had happened. However, Stockwell Day had basically given Chretien the political ability to call that election. Prior to the election, Day had stated that Chretien didn't have the support of the people and we should have an election. Chretien took the opening, and secured a third majority government in Parliament. Just one more example of Day's terrible leadership.

The second thing is that the complaining about the fixed election date argument comes off as a bit ludicrous to me. The intent of the law is to prevent the government from calling an election when they are polling well. Since, in a majority government, only the PM has the ability to determine an election, this makes sense. (Well kind of, personally I was never a supporter of fixed election dates). In a minority government, the opposition has the ability to force an election. So, in a minority government, the PM cannot force an election when his party is polling well, but the opposition can force an election when they are polling well?

Preventing a PM from calling an election in a minority government may go with the letter of the law, but I don't really think it is in the spirit of the law.

[Wezil]

I don't think fixed dates work in a Parliamentary system. I also didn't bring forward the legislation to do so.

[ShaneWalter]

I don't think anyone is arguing Harper failed to build the party.

What he has failed at is forming a majority government when all the pieces were in place to do it. He failed against the backdrop of the sponsorship scandal and he failed again last fall (in the election he called) to do it against a lifeless Liberal party under Dion. Harper appears to have topped out at a minority.

I don't really feel anybody else could have accomplished what Harper has done. Moreover, I feel like even now he is probably the best leader for the CPC's at the current time. Yes, the CPC has been unable to form a majority government, but I don't think anybody could have done that. Perhaps, somebody who leaned slightly more left, and was from Ontario could have captured support from the Liberals in Ontario, but that risk alienating the party's base in western Canada. A quick look at the message board FreeDominion and one can see that the people who were the CA's base supporters generally are not Harper supporters. They may hold their noses and vote CPC, but if the leader of the CPC was more left leaning and from Ontario, I don't know if they'd even do that.

I'd agree that, given the current political situation, the best the CPC can hope for is about what they have now. I'm not sure if that shows that Harper is a terrible leader, though. Personally, if an election is called this fall, I think the absolute best the Liberal Party could hope for is (if things worked out perfectly, and with a bit of luck) is maybe a 120 seat minority. So I see the upper bound for the CPC being around 145 seats, while the upper bound for the Liberals is about 120 seats.

That the CPC has a minority government, and appears unable to get beyond that, is not a failure of Harper, it is just a reality of the current political situation, IMO. There's too many parties that enjoy high support, and in general, voting is very regional right now. If anything, another election may have an even more fractured result with the Green Party picking up some seats. (Though they should've done that already, if they had any leader other than Elizabeth May, I'm sure they would have).

[ShaneWalter]

I don't think fixed dates work in a Parliamentary system. I also didn't bring forward the legislation to do so.

Oh I'm not arguing with you, I'm just stating my thoughts on the article. Actually I really just wanted to bash Stockwell Day, but I thought I should throw in an extra paragraph to conceal it a little.

[Wezil]

Your argument is persuasive. We've debated regionalism and its effects on the political process on these boards in the past.

That said, will the CPC supporters accept that argument or will they tire of being in minority and make a change hoping for a majority? Harper, as popular and successful as he has been within the CPC, carries considerable baggage outside the party.

[Wezil]

Oh I'm not arguing with you, I'm just stating my thoughts on the article. Actually I really just wanted to bash Stockwell Day, but I thought I should throw in an extra paragraph to conceal it a little.

I'm interested in seeing a better article on the subject quite frankly. I find it interesting that a Charter breach is being alleged...

[Ben Kenobi]

personally I would prefer the Conservatives were led by someone with less ties to the righty nutjob branch of the party. Oh and if that person could have a little warmth please.

Then vote for Ignatieff. We've got 1279738302 leftist parties out there.