Russians stop gas shipments to Europe

[TCO]

Looks like Ukrainians have the Russkis by the balls. Good payback for that poisoning.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090107/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_ukraine_russia_gas

[TCO]

Plus we got a separate pipe from Russia, pay on time, don't steal and have Gazprom as 38% shareholder of our gas utility (39% is E.ON). Wikkid.

Do you transship? Russians need to pay Ukraine a rent. Whatever the Ukrainians can dig out of them. I say let the two scorpions fight it out.

[TCO]

It's still cooking, Block II. And it's technically different from Chernobyl in many aspects!

Seriously, nice precedent by Bulgaria .

kvatt did Bulkaria do?

Oh...and that tractor...hmmm...

[onodera]

That's actually a good solution, imperialist. But you forgot, Ukraine:

No, Ukraine:
Also, let us finish Nord Stream. Then we'll have the Ukraine by the balls.

[Saras]

Do you transship? Russians need to pay Ukraine a rent. Whatever the Ukrainians can dig out of them. I say let the two scorpions fight it out.

no we don't.

Wait, we DO. To what is Russian territorry, Kaliningrad.

LOL, WIKKID!

[Unimatrix11]

(all under the presmise that what russia cliams is true):

Sure, the Ukraine could demand a transportation fee. Maybe they should. Openly. Not just take what they think is their fair share.

Onedera: I like funny and accurate analysis of seriuos problems so: thumb up for that one.

I think the Ukraine is not doing itself a long term favor here BTW. From my perspective, the Ukraine is a border state (between russia and the EU) and probably will remain that for the next couple of decades (at least i dont want them in the EU - just like turkey too fringy and just too much). This offers opportunities tho, when coupled with smart politics. P***ing off both sides, i wouldnt consider smart, tho. To make an open agreement with them about transfer fees is another story, though, and does seem to be a reasonable way to profit from the situation. After all, Europe at least, is interested in the modernization of the Ukraine energy sector.

Saras: Interesting info about the lithunian energy sector there btw. I work for e.on (indirectly) sometimes - they are german, aren´t they? I think it´s not pushed into the public enough, how far-flung and powerful these energy corps are IMO. If you´d transfer these numbers into ´political influence´ (say like culture in civ), it looks a bit like hitler-stalin all over again... Now i dont mind good relations with russia, but still - something makes me feel odd about these numbers...

[Dinner]

Yes, we are heartless bastards who want to squeeze the Ukraine's budget udder hard, but don't forget we sell them our natural gas at a highly reduced price.

Russia: hey, *the* Ukraine, we will sell you gas for the same price we sell it to the Germans.
Ukraine:
Russia: No? Okay, we'll pump less gas into your pipeline, don't take any, and our European partners will get the amount they bought.
Ukraine:
Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Greece, Hungary, Germany, etc: We're not getting enough gas!
Ukraine:
Russia: Okay, *the* Ukraine, be a good country and give the gas back, or no one will get any gas at all.
EU:

What will happen:

EU: Okay, Ukraine, time to cough up, our people are burining furniture in the town squares.
Ukraine: ?
EU: Okay, Russia, we'll pay for the Ukraine.
Russia: *opens the valve*
EU:
Russia:

A much more likely out come is that even numbskulls in Germany figure out that Russia is not a reliable supplier and so alternative pipelines will be built from the mid-east through Turkey and from North Africa to Spain & Italy. It would also help if the idiots in Germany would not shut down all of their nuclear power plants as the alternative is to burn coal (very bad) or import energy.

[Dinner]

Looks like Ukrainians have the Russkis by the balls. Good payback for that poisoning.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090107/...ine_russia_gas

If the Ukraine does have a four month supply saved up then they've won. Russia has played this card once to often and now the other players have anticipated it and made back up plans. Can Russia really forgo an entire year's worth of exports without difficulty? I mean if the Ukrainians really do have enough to make it through April then they're practically in summer time at that point and there is little need for gas. Mean while the longer this goes on the more Europe will release Russia is unreliable.

[MikeH]

Russia is not a reliable supplier but the middle east is?

[Saras]

You can nuke Middle East and not be massively nuked back.

[Dinner]

Russia is not a reliable supplier but the middle east is?

No they are also unreliable. But two unreliable suppliers are still better then one unreliable supplier. At least you have an alternative for when Putin wants to shut off supplies. Of course even better is to switch to electric and power everything with nuclear power.

[MikeH]

How long do you think it'd take to build that pipeline just out of interest.

[MikeH]

On the Turkish pipeline, would you send it through Syria or Iraq?

[Darius871]

Russia: hey, *the* Ukraine, we will sell you gas for the same price we sell it to the Germans.
Ukraine:
Russia: No? Okay, we'll pump less gas into your pipeline, don't take any, and our European partners will get the amount they bought.
Ukraine:
Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Greece, Hungary, Germany, etc: We're not getting enough gas!
Ukraine:
Russia: Okay, *the* Ukraine, be a good country and give the gas back, or no one will get any gas at all.
EU:

What will happen:

EU: Okay, Ukraine, time to cough up, our people are burining furniture in the town squares.
Ukraine: ?
EU: Okay, Russia, we'll pay for the Ukraine.
Russia: *opens the valve*
EU:
Russia:

onodera

[Dinner]

How long do you think it'd take to build that pipeline just out of interest.

2-10 years depending on how high of a priority they make it. In WW2 the Allies built a pipeline from England to Normandy in 2 days so it just goes to show how fast things can get done when the right people really want it done fast.

BTW Russia has been pulling this stuff for years but no one in Europe seems to be taking any action to hedge bets. Finding ways to get gas from multiple supplies helps reduce the leverage any one supplier holds over customers. It just makes good business sense.