The Last Last Election Thread II about the Last Election

[KrazyHorse]

I thought it was self-evident from how you talked about Obama pre-election

Please provide examples.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by VJ

I don't think it's significant in a 3-year perioid,

Given that you have hundreds or thousands of stocks to choose from, finding a few with tens of percent moves iin one night would not be that surprising.

but it's true that it'll give you a temporary head start if you're looking for it. Could you suggest an alternative time/way of buying? I'm thinking about each participant writing down forum posts with each line having:
CORPORATION NAME / STOCK SYMBOL / AMOUNT BOUGHT / PRICE PER SHARE / TOTAL PRICE

with the total price of all lines being equal to or less than $1M.

Same forum post during the trading day. Price actually to be used for P/L to be the highest price on that stock within five minutes of the post (info via yahoo). Doesn't matter what total amount is. Return will be calculated as a percent.

How will dividends be accounted for?

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse

I thought it was self-evident from how you talked about Obama pre-election

Please provide examples.

trying to search for invididual posts of poster X from past history in order to search for indications about how poster X feels about thing Y which would support hypothesis Z about how X used to think that Y's value is 0, when poster X has just explicitly told you that he has known for a long time that Y's value is 1.

uhh, yeah. so not only completely pointless, also requiring a huge amount of effort.

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
hundreds or thousands of stocks to choose from

S&P 500

Same forum post during the trading day. Price actually to be used for P/L to be the highest price on that stock within five minutes of the post (info via yahoo). Doesn't matter what total amount is. Return will be calculated as a percent.

I don't know what do you mean with P/L in this context, but otherwise this seems reasonable.

How will dividends be accounted for?

tax rate 0%. added as money earned, which will be added to total amount of $ when the time runs out and all stock ownership is sold.

if you have alternative ideas, go ahead.

[DarkCloud]

http://contests.cnbc.com/milliondollar/main.do

(For VJ)

[DarkCloud]

Re: KH's coment to VJ:

So you want to flip a coin? I thought we were trying to test if you could consistently beat the market. This requires multiple time periods.

Why don't you challenge each other in the above competition. I believe it is 12 weeks of market competition... a bit too short to prove long-term investment success strategies, but enough I would think to prove if you can identify a stock that is either going to tank due to Christmas poor earnings, or one that has legs.

And the game has constant returns, and you can also trade commodities.

[RGBVideo]

http://contests.cnbc.com/milliondollar/main.do

(For VJ)

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In this game, you can't lose. Everyone who registers for the contest is eligible to receive a FREE $25 Micro Account from FXCM, our exclusive currency sponsor. Click here for details.

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Ten weeks, ten weekly winners. And at the end of 10 weeks, the weekly winners and top 10 portfolio holders are off to the finals for a two-week playoff round.

Ok... so where are the rules?

I know that there are a lot of play money contests around, but never seen one that restricts buying/selling to starting date and ending date exclusively. Which brings us back to that "requiring daily time & effort" thing.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by VJ
I don't know what do you mean with P/L in this context, but otherwise this seems reasonable.

I mean that we will calculate portfolio's final value and divide by the portfolio's initial value, as calculated by highest price for each stock within 5 minutes of post

tax rate 0%. added as money earned, which will be added to total amount of $ when the time runs out and all stock ownership is sold.

if you have alternative ideas, go ahead.

Errr...so you are suggesting that we treat dividends as cash that we hide under the mattress?

[RGBVideo]

yeah, and 12 weeks. crapshoot, no thanks.

[DarkCloud]

I know that there are a lot of play money contests around, but never seen one that restricts buying/selling to starting date and ending date exclusively. Which brings us back to that "requiring daily time & effort" thing.

Buying/selling can be done at any time in the competition, from what I understand. and every week a "winner" is announced.

[RGBVideo]

Errr...so you are suggesting that we treat dividends as cash that we hide under the mattress?

yeah, that's what I was suggesting. the main point i've having here is KISS

you could treat it as a money invested in bonds, but where to set the bond rate?

you could also adjust for inflation, but where to get credible monthly inflation figures?

any other ideas you'll come up with? i'm open to anything, but let's keep this competition simple.

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by DarkCloud

Buying/selling can be done at any time in the competition, from what I understand

which is exactly what I'm trying to avoid, which i've said and explained several times

staff should portray an example on netiquette to common posters. read the thread

I mean that we will calculate portfolio's final value and divide by the portfolio's initial value, as calculated by highest price for each stock within 5 minutes of post

good, that's what I thought. works for me.

[DarkCloud]

I read this page.
You implied you had not read the rules for the competition.
So I was clarifying.
I apologize for trying to help in an inefficient fashion.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by VJ

yeah, that's what I was suggesting. the main point i've having here is KISS

you could treat it as a money invested in bonds, but where to set the bond rate?

you could also adjust for inflation, but where to get credible monthly inflation figures?

any other ideas you'll come up with? i'm open to anything, but let's keep this competition simple.

My preference would be to reinvest the dividends in the stock paying the dividend at the opening price of the stock the (US) trading day immediately following the dividend payment.

My "stock" will be the S&P 500, and reinvestment will be made quarterly in the index as a whole.

[RGBVideo]

I read this page.
You implied you had not read the rules for the competition.
So I was clarifying.
I apologize for trying to help in an inefficient fashion.

I requested a link for rules of the competition. You gave a link contained no explained rules and I couldn't find a further link from the page I was in which would lead to competition rules (or FAQ).

Don't get me wrong, thanks for trying to help, but you didn't help me at all.

Important part of this competition would be that there would be a set date, a set moment when all the stocks a competitor wants to buy would be bought AND a set ending date, a set ending moment when all the stocks a competitor did buy would be sold. This would be needed so competitors couldn't gain an advantage by being on the lookout for good stocks to invest every day. I first explained this on post #152:

When everyone gets the same handicap of not being able to sell & buy until the start of competition, it won't become a competition of "time and effort willing to spend on earning $0". Value of stock holdings can still be easily compared to S&P Index at any point of the competition, which is the average you want me to beat. In order to keep it simple, all concerning taxes are presumed to be 0%.

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
My preference would be to reinvest the dividends in the stock paying the dividend at the opening price of the stock the (US) trading day immediately following the dividend payment.

works for me

My "stock" will be the S&P 500, and reinvestment will be made quarterly in the index as a whole.

i presume the average (dividends in quarter / share price when dividend given) % of all 500 stocks is used as a reinvestment percentage quarterly? if so, works for me.