The Last Last Election Thread II about the Last Election

[KrazyHorse]

I guess it's easier to just infer a bunch of nonsense which is patently untrue though, huh.

[RGBVideo]

Now that we got your defensive ego-war bull**** out of the way...

A forum competition on what, VJ?

I'm a bit short on casual time for the next few years, so here's the deal:

$1 000 000 of hypothetical money which must be invested on shares of corporations listed on S&P 500 before US markets open on Wednesday, 17th of December 2008. Prices are based on the closing prices of Tuesday. Because optimal investing would require daily time & effort, the shares will be held until 17th of December, 2011 when they are all sold and the total money received from original investments will be calculated.

When everyone gets the same handicap of not being able to sell & buy until the end of competition, it won't become a competition of "time and effort willing to spend on earning $0". Value of stock holdings can still be easily compared to S&P Index at any point of the competition, which is the average you want me to beat. In order to keep it simple, all concerning taxes are presumed to be 0%.

edit: "required"; "end" instead of "start"

[DarkCloud]

VJ- why don't you just play the CNBC Money competition?

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
You don't have to be surprised at something to be mad at it.

This is an argument against a strawman. Your post history indicates that you seem to get a kick out of elaborately building them, beating them to death and then congratulating yourself.

Whatever, have fun with that. Only you can be the judge of whether you were suckered by professional politicians or not. If you're surprised that Obama is pushing this bailout as a Democratic partisan then you got suckered, that's all I'm saying.

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by DarkCloud
VJ- why don't you just play the CNBC Money competition?

Link for rules, thanks.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by VJ
Now that we got your defensive ego-war bull**** out of the way...


I'm a bit short on casual time for the next few years, so here's the deal:

$1 000 000 of hypothetical money which must be invested on shares of corporations listed on S&P 500 before US markets open on Wednesday, 17th of December 2008. Prices are based on the closing prices of Tuesday. Because optimal investing would daily time & effort, the shares will be held until 17th of December, 2011 when they are all sold and the total money received from original investments will be calculated.

When everyone gets the same handicap of not being able to sell & buy until the start of competition, it won't become a competition of "time and effort willing to spend on earning $0". Value of stock holdings can still be easily compared to S&P Index at any point of the competition, which is the average you want me to beat. In order to keep it simple, all concerning taxes are presumed to be 0%.

So you want to flip a coin? I thought we were trying to test if you could consistently beat the market. This requires multiple time periods.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by VJ
Now that we got your defensive ego-war bull**** out of the way...

You mean "now that you are done with making false claims about what I thought about various candidates"?

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
You mean "now that you are done with making false claims about what I thought about various candidates"?

well, yeah. that too.

So you want to flip a coin? I thought we were trying to test if you could consistently beat the market. This requires multiple time periods.

How about 3 separate 3-year long investment competitions starting in the same date of 2008, 2009 and 2010?

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by VJ
Whatever, have fun with that. Only you can be the judge of whether you were suckered by professional politicians or not. If you're surprised that Obama is pushing this bailout as a Democratic partisan then you got suckered, that's all I'm saying.

Funny, you seemed to have made a much stronger claim than a simple If, Then statement when you said:

Originally posted by VJ

@ you being surprised at this.

Or was that posted by your evil twin?

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by VJ
How about 3 separate 3-year long investment competitions starting in the same date of 2008, 2009 and 2010?

That is better, but still not ideal.

Also, are you restricting to 100% equities? And we need to decide what equity market you're playing in. Stocks on the russell 2000?

[KrazyHorse]

By the way, the fact that these time periods would overlap makes the statistical analysis a bit complicated. Will have to make some assumptions in order to produce a significance test for the results.

[KrazyHorse]

$1 000 000 of hypothetical money which must be invested on shares of corporations listed on S&P 500 before US markets open on Wednesday, 17th of December 2008. Prices are based on the closing prices of Tuesday.

This is very, very bad. All you would have to do to get a significant head start would be to look at after-hours markets for stocks which are trading sharply up, then engage in some arbitrage between tuesday's close and wednesday's open

[RGBVideo]

Funny, you seemed to have made a much stronger claim than a simple If, Then statement when you said:

Because I presumed the "if" to be true in all cases;

I thought it was self-evident from how you talked about Obama pre-election and how worked up you got from the predictable (it's consistent with what the liberal half of the Democratic party has supported before with their votes) bailout of GM that it was a genuine surprise for you. You say that it was not, so it would appear ridiculous if I started argumenting with you about what you actually felt when you first heard about the bailout.

[KrazyHorse]

Mad, which moved me from resigned before the announcement of intentions.

[RGBVideo]

significant head start

I don't think it's significant in a 3-year perioid, but it's true that it'll give you a temporary head start if you're looking for it. Could you suggest an alternative time/way of buying? I'm thinking about each participant writing down forum posts with each line having:
CORPORATION NAME / STOCK SYMBOL / AMOUNT BOUGHT / PRICE PER SHARE / TOTAL PRICE

with the total price of all lines being equal to or less than $1M.