In all this, the demise of the EU?

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Darius871


Three?

Britain, France and the Duchy of Grand Fenwick.

[onodera]

Originally posted by Darius871


Three?

The UK, France, and Russia.

[Darius871]

My point being I fail to see how Russia's in the scope of the EU discussion. Though they "probably" would be involved in any hypothetical European war, I suppose.

[Heraclitus]

Originally posted by Darius871


Three?

UK, France and Russia


Also Germany could if it wanted to get a nuke in less than a year.

[Heraclitus]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Fearmongerer! :anger:

Dresden after the last European civil war.


Another one may be too much for us to recover from... ever, I can't really see why this would be scaremongering, I think its pretty clear that a real European war involving nations with 50+ million inhabitants (not the silly small scale local Yugoslavia conflict) would have consequences as harsh as WW1 or WW2 did for our poor old continent, and back then we ruled the world, today we are just a first world region of some economic importance and moderate political influence.


Some might say the US would step in as soon as it would start and end the madness, but this wasn't the case in WW1 & WW2 also back then no Euro nation had nukes. We all know that any nation with nuclear weapons is 100% safe from a US invasion.

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Heraclitus
Also Germany could if it wanted to get a nuke in less than a year.

Or about 6 weeks to acquire French nukes .

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Heraclitus


UK, France and Russia


Also Germany could if it wanted to get a nuke in less than a year.

See post above yours

[Heraclitus]

Originally posted by Darius871
My point being I fail to see how Russia's in the scope of the EU discussion.

Originally posted by Darius871
Though they "probably" would be involved in any hypothetical European war, I suppose.

You have answered your own question. If the EU collapses infighting would begin in less than 10 years, Russia is a European country and they have been involved in every major European war stretching back to the Napoleonic wars and beyond, you can replace "probably" with "certainly".


Also getting Nuclear weapons is ridiculously easy in the modern world, if only you feel you need them. NK a impoverished and isolated nation with 23 million people got them, countries like Germany and Italy could get them in a matter of months if they put their mind to it. Even Euro countries like Spain, The Netherlands, Poland, Sweden could get them in such short time spans. For that matter tiny nations with operational nuclear facilities could build them in a few short years.



Europe would become a richer Africa with Nuclear weapons: constant infighting, civil war and the occasional genocide

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by Victor Galis


Or about 6 weeks to acquire French nukes .

Sarkozy actually offered to share French nukes with Germany a while ago. Has been refused however. But in the long run, if proliferation can't be stopped, some countries might rethink their "no own nukes" position.

[Ben Kenobi]

Good. Can they stop bothering the Irish?

[Traianvs]

Hey even we can use nukes. All we need to do is to overrun the military base over at Kleine Brogel, Belgium where US nukes are cosily asleep.

Our first mission would be the annexation of puny luxembourg, and then we would reclaim the south of the Netherlands and the north of France, which was unrightfully taken from us

Then we would beat our Wallonian compadres into submission and enlist them as thralls in our army to serve as cannon fodder against the German onslaught, who will be eager to reclaim the tiny portion of Germany we were given after WWII!

[OneFootInTheGrave]

True chance for next European War is Crimea... from Russia to Ukraine by Soviet administrative generosity... if Ukrainians get too cocky, this could easily secede and I do not want to know what else could happen... other than that, I think that after the last Balkan war all the rest is nicely split and there are no questions remaining to be answered in the future... maybe Cyprus, but neither Greeks or Turks seem that crazy these days...

Crimea is really the only big questions, and it is not really EU, but more EU vs Russia... not that pleasant either

[Lancer]

James Dunnigan...

http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/2008101103629.asp

"Russia has an offer that neighboring Ukraine can't refuse, and that won't make Russia look like a bully. Russia wants to built aircraft carriers, but the shipyards best suited for that kind of work are in Ukraine. At the moment, Ukraine and Russia are at odds over several major issues. One is possession of the Crimean peninsula (in southern Ukraine), and the Russian naval bases there. Currently, Russia has leased Crimea, but the lease expires in nine years, and Ukraine does not want to renew, no matter how much the Russians huff, puff and threaten. Ukraine does not trust the Russians, especially after what Russia has done to neighboring Georgia (invaded, then annexed part of Georgia). So some Russian legislators have come up with a clever solution.

It goes like this. Russia would provide contracts to build aircraft carriers in Ukrainian shipyards, as well as cash to get those yards back in business (they are closed for lack thereof). In return, Ukraine would extend the Crimean lease. Currently Russia stations 50 warships (most of them small, and many just patrol boats) and 80 aircraft in Crimea. But there is a large Russian population in Crimea, and Russia would like to stay. It's also becoming clear that the EU (European Union) was shaken up by what happened to Georgia, and especially by the way Russian just shrugged off EU protests. The EU and the U.S. are making aggressive noises that Ukraine will receive more substantial (more than diplomatic) support in any future confrontation with Russia. So now Russia is looking to use the carrot, rather than the stick, to get its way. The carrier contract solution works out for everyone, except Western nations unhappy with Russia having a carrier fleet. But that's a decade or more in the future, and the Russians have never shown any great capacity for effectively running aircraft carriers. "

[OneFootInTheGrave]

well... Ukraine is in a tough situation, as it has been handed over an area where Russians spilt more blood than anywhere else in their bloody (as in Russians were spilling more blood than average nation) history... worst of all it is of really great strategic importance for the Russians... sooooo... this is not going to be good in any shape or form unless Ukraine plays nicely...

than in perhaps 50 years if the balance in the world changes enough noone will care one way or another, but any short term posturing/other will not finish well for anyone involved... as this is Russian "old territory" thus too many Russians living there + if other nations getting involved = the best chance for WWIII

ethnic composition

58.32% Russians
24.32% Ukrainians
12.10% Crimean Tatars

[Lancer]

Maybe the Ukraine should give half of it back.