Obama Opens Up a 9-Point Lead

[Guynemer]

So what was the video?

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Guynemer
So what was the video?

School children in Obama shirts all singing a tribute to Obama that was vaguely reminiscent of the North Korean children choirs that praise Dear Leader.

[Guynemer]

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
School children in Obama shirts all singing a tribute to Obama that was vaguely reminiscent of the North Korean children choirs that praise Dear Leader.

You hang around in North Korea a lot??

It's funny that whenever any popular support is shown for Obama, Republicans freak and claim that popularity for a politician is a bad thing. Not everyone has to be like Dubya, y'know.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
You hang around in North Korea a lot??

It's funny that whenever any popular support is shown for Obama, Republicans freak and claim that popularity for a politician is a bad thing. Not everyone has to be like Dubya, y'know.

You didn't see the video though.

[Ramo]

You hang around in North Korea a lot??

Their propaganda films are pretty classic. World renowned...

http://www.guba.com/watch/3000003823?duration_step=0&fields=8&filter_tiny=0&pp=6000&query=554444&sb=0&set=5&sf=0&size_step=0&o=39&sample=1221081750:94ff5f50ee19fcfa178cd80e9ccda8fa16cd2a7c

[DinoDoc]

Found it again: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/pos...ry_afraid.html

[Imran Siddiqui]

[Boris Godunov]

Fat lady is doing vocal warm-ups.

News from the campaign: McCain is pulling out of Michigan:

Politico report

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

This is a very bad sign this far out from November. Michigan was perhaps the most likely of the Midwest Kerry states that McCain could have flipped. Even though Bush lost there, he at least competed until Election Day.

I cannot see, at this point, an electoral map that allows McCain to win.

[Ramo]

McCain has almost no hope in NM and IA. His only real chance is to steal NH, and hold CO, VA, FL, NV, OH, NC, MO, and IN. Only in IN and MO is he likely to be ahead at the moment (if only by a small amount).

[rah]

Surprising, since its still way to far out. Almost anything could happen in the next month.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Found it again: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/pos...ry_afraid.html

If I'd have been in charge, I'd have had a simpler song for the kids. That sone was too complex to be a kids's song. It was more like the "we're gonna change the world"-type songs we sang in the 60's/

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by rah
Surprising, since its still way to far out. Almost anything could happen in the next month.

My guess is that his campaign internals show him down by double digits in the state, which would be in line with the latest statewide poll which had Obama +11 I believe. Since Michigan tends to vote economy more than a lot of other states, the past few weeks have mortally wounded his chances there.

If Obama holds all the Kerry states, he only needs to add 18 EVs from Bush states. He's got 5 from NM and 7 from IA in the bag. That leaves 6 EVs, and there's a vast map for him to play with, as Ramo noted. Colorado has shown a consistent lead for Obama of about 4-5 points, and that's 9 EVs right there. Virginia has lately been showing the same, and that's 13.

Right now, the worst-case scenario I can reasonably foresee for Obama is that he picks up NM and IA but no other Bush states, and McCain is able to flip NH. But that makes it a 269-269 tie, and that means Obama wins anyway.

[Ramo]

IIRC, in that scenario McCain would win (Obama would need NV to get to 269).

Ah, nevermind. Obama's in an even better scenario than I assumed. I'm surprised I overlooked that possibility.

Double nevermind. The scenario that I was thinking of is Obama = Kerry + IA + NM + NV = 269.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ramo
IIRC, in that scenario McCain would win (Obama would need NV to get to 269).

Actually, no, Colorado figures into the tie scenario, my mistake. NV wouldn't be enough, it only has 5 EVs.

So Kerry states minus NH but plus NM, IA and CO gets us to the 269-269 scenario.