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The margin of error is larger, but the idea that the information is meaningless is bull****.
The margin of error when n=5 is pretty ****ing huge. As such, using 5 tracking poll results to try to estimate how big a lead Obama has right now is assinine, especially when there are much better aggregate polls to look at. Those polls don't show a 6-7 point Obama lead, however, which is why I imagine you would rather use the tracking polls, however obvious the problem with them.
Tracking polls are useful enough for detecting trends, but it's hard to see a trend when two show big gains, two stay relatively stable and the other shows a loss.
The margin of error when n=5 is pretty ****ing huge.
It's not n = 5. It's n = 5*(average sample size).
The Gallup sample alone has 2732 registered voters with a MoE of 2%. The margin of error scales with the square root of the sample size (though there are issues with merging different methodologies), so the 5 poll aggregate MoE would be considerably smaller.
Those polls don't show a 6-7 point Obama lead, however, which is why I imagine you would rather use the tracking polls, however obvious the problem with them.
No. I'm using the tracking polls (and NYT) because the other polls are before the debate. As I explicitly stated in nearly every post on the subject. Including the initial one. Jesus Christ, you're dense.
Tracking polls are useful enough for detecting trends, but it's hard to see a trend when two show big gains, two stay relatively stable and the other shows a loss.
Once again, it's hilarious that you whine about me not having a large enough average, and then talk about individual polls rather than the normalized bulk as if that meant something.
I blame you for wasting my time with this douchebaggery.
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What does it matter anymore? The economy is in the toilet. Obama won.
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Of course he's desperate. The financial crisis has ended any chance that he'll become president via the usual means. McCain needs a miracle at this point.
If Palin doesn't score an unexpected hit in her VP debate, they have huge problems. If it goes anything like the Couric interview, she could end up burying the ticket. There's always the chance that Biden will run his mouth, but if they are smart, the GOP will find an excuse to cancel that event.
And McCain's gambling/lobbyist connection is finally being aired out -- in Dem ads on Christian-right websites, as well as the mainstream press.
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Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut
That being said, McCain's probably better off not becoming President. Obama is going to get stuck with this economic mess and end up like Carter.
The current mess has gone way beyond what Carter inherited. But the next president will have to take action like FDR did. Neither candidates said they would do anything different at the debate.
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Originally posted by -Jrabbit
And McCain's gambling/lobbyist connection is finally being aired out -- in Dem ads on Christian-right websites, as well as the mainstream press.
Originally posted by -Jrabbit
I love McCain - who the GOP said was required to get the needed votes for the fix package - blaming Obama for the failed vote.
Frankly, he's looking pretty desperate.
It's better than that: McCain "suspended" his campaign and parachuted into DC to provide "leadership" on the bill; by the time he was done, not a single member of the Arizona delegation voted "yay." Dude can't even lead his state's delegation, in spite of being it's senior senator. McCain
"I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin
It's better than that: McCain "suspended" his campaign and parachuted into DC to provide "leadership" on the bill; by the time he was done, not a single member of the Arizona delegation voted "yay." Dude can't even lead his state's delegation, in spite of being it's senior senator. McCain
I guess everyone in Arizona is a "maverick".
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