The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Boris Godunov]

You stole my prediction. Poser!

When it gets close to election day, I'll revise mine. I may have to move NC and MO to Obama's column by then.

[Imran Siddiqui]

You can't just keep changing your predictions!!

The whole point was to pick 'em months before hand.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Um, technically, until the election actually happens, they're still predictions.

I just go with the flow (of po...lls)

Boris: I've always been taught to steal from greatness

Why don't we have a brown-noser smilie?

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
You can't just keep changing your predictions!!

The whole point was to pick 'em months before hand.

Point. I was going to do a separate "Final Predictions" thread on 11/3. Then it would stand separately from these predictions.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Just to reiterate, for those (like me) who do 30 posts/page (I did a good five minutes of work on it!

Originally posted by The Emperor Fabulous
I just can't help but laugh at those of you who think McCain will get +300 EVs.

He would have to keep (stats are from Pollster.net):

Updated 10/13/08 (Original 9/30/08)

NEW MEXICO - O +6.2 (O +6.2)
IOWA - O +11.4 (O +9.8)
FLORIDA - O +5.6 (M +2.1)
OHIO - O +4.2 (M +2.9)
COLORADO - O +6.3 (O +3)
INDIANA - M +2.5 (M +2.5)
NORTH CAROLINA - O +0.7 (M +1.2)
VIRGINIA - O +3.1 (M +0.4)
NEVADA - O +2.1 (M +1.8)

Then, he'd have to take:

MINNESOTA - O +4.7 (O +3.2)
NEW HAMPSHIRE - O +5.3 (Tie)
or
PENNSYLVANIA - O +9.8 (O +3.3)
or
MICHIGAN - O +6.6 (O +4.3)

UPDATE: Plus, these new "swing" states (some for future trend lines):

GEORGIA - M +7.5
MISSOURI - M +1.7
MONTANA - M +7.7
NORTH DAKOTA - M +11.1
WEST VIRGINIA - M +1.1

He could still get +300 and lose NM and IA if he picked up NH AND two other Kerry states. But come on, its like a 15% chance Obama won't keep all the Kerry states and not pick up Iowa, the state that made his campaign.

McCain could win, but he won't get over 300.

Updated trendlines, plus some new states. Bleaker and bleaker for McCain.

[Ben Kenobi]

Here's my prediction

McCain: Alabama-9, Alaska-3, Arizona-10, Arkansas-6, Colorado-9, Florida-27, Georgia-15, Idaho-4, Indiana-11, Iowa-7, Kansas-6, Kentucky-8, Louisiana-9, Michigan-17, Minnesota-10, Mississippi-6, Missouri-11, Montana-3, Nebraska-5, Nevada-5, New Hampshire-4, New Mexico-5, North Carolina-15, North Dakota-3, Ohio-20, Oklahoma-7, Pennsylvania-21, South Carolina-8, South Dakota-3, Tennessee-11, Texas-34, Utah-5, Virginia-13, West Virginia-5, Wisconsin-10, Wyoming-3.

McCain 348

OBAMA: California-55, Connecticut-7, Delaware-3, District of Columbia-3, Hawai'i-4, Illinois-21, Maine-4, Maryland-10, Massachusetts-12, New Jersey-15, New York-31, Oregon-7, Rhode Island-4, Vermont-3, Washington-11,

Obama 190

[Ben Kenobi]

Man, Winston, why are you giving up on McCain?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Point. I was going to do a separate "Final Predictions" thread on 11/3. Then it would stand separately from these predictions.

Alright cool

Because if everyone gets to pick 300+, then my 277 (because I want to keep my original prediction as being what I thought would happen months before the election) is going to look crappy.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Here's my prediction

McCain: Alabama-9, Alaska-3, Arizona-10, Arkansas-6, Colorado-9, Florida-27, Georgia-15, Idaho-4, Indiana-11, Iowa-7, Kansas-6, Kentucky-8, Louisiana-9, Michigan-17, Minnesota-10, Mississippi-6, Missouri-11, Montana-3, Nebraska-5, Nevada-5, New Hampshire-4, New Mexico-5, North Carolina-15, North Dakota-3, Ohio-20, Oklahoma-7, Pennsylvania-21, South Carolina-8, South Dakota-3, Tennessee-11, Texas-34, Utah-5, Virginia-13, West Virginia-5, Wisconsin-10, Wyoming-3.

McCain 348

OBAMA: California-55, Connecticut-7, Delaware-3, District of Columbia-3, Hawai'i-4, Illinois-21, Maine-4, Maryland-10, Massachusetts-12, New Jersey-15, New York-31, Oregon-7, Rhode Island-4, Vermont-3, Washington-11,

Obama 190

I have to wonder if it's fun for you being delusional.

[Ben Kenobi]

Kuci, isn't the formula:

1/STATE Pop * SEAT COUNT / EV Total?

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Here's my prediction

McCain: Colorado-9

Heh...hehheh

Iowa-7

Hahahaha

Michigan-17, Minnesota-10

HAHAHA

New Hampshire-4, New Mexico-5

AHAHAHAHAHAHHA

Pennsylvania-21, Wisconsin-10

AHAHA HAHAHAHAH

McCain 347 Obama 190

AAAAAHAHAHHAHA

You're a freaking hysterical guy Ben. Keep it up!

[Ben Kenobi]

I have to wonder if it's fun for you being delusional.

Delusional would be picking a McCain win in New York.

All I am saying is that the purple states will break his way.

Every single prediction based on polls that I've seen, somehow miraculously avoids putting McCain over 270, either by giving him ties, or saying he will lose in VA, but win in PA, or some strange combination of seats saying that Obama will win.

All of the ones I've predicted have either:

1. Been won by Bush, (IOWA)

2. Been given to McCain at some point of the race.

I think Iowa is my longest reach, and we shall see what happens on election day.

[EPW]

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
1. Been won by Bush, (IOWA)

2. Been given to McCain at some point of the race.

But that's not even true. When has McCain been "given" Wisconsin? Or Pennsylvania, for that matter?

And if your definition of "given" is one outlier poll, that's just even more delusional, especially given your previous pooh-poohing of polls.

It is patently ludicrous to look at the state of the election today and think that just because either Bush won the state before (especially since you're giving Kerry states to McCain, which makes zero sense) or that McCain may have had one poll showing him ahead months ago that it means McCain will run the table on every state of that kind.

Every single prediction based on polls that I've seen, somehow miraculously avoids putting McCain over 270, either by giving him ties, or saying he will lose in VA, but win in PA, or some strange combination of seats saying that Obama will win.

And yet your scenario has McCain even more miraculously running the table on states where Obama currently enjoys double-digit leads and where McCain has never enjoyed a polling advantage, ever (IA, PA, WI).

[Winston]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Man, Winston, why are you giving up on McCain?

November 4 will vindicate the both of us, and all the fools will try to explain how it was just dumb luck and a freak occurrence. That, plus systemic racism, always good.