What the West should do about teh Russian agressors.

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Kirnwaffen
The west should and will do nothing. Georgia played with fire and got burned. Whether the territory is technically theirs or not, they should have known better than to think the Russians wouldn't respond.

The reality of the situation is that Russia:

1) has nukes

2) has a large enough conventional army to cause a potentially long lasting war in Europe

3) has the ability to cut off oil and gas supplies to Western Europe.

4) a veto vote on the Security Council.

What does anybody expect the West to do? This is one instance where Russia happens to be holding all the cards.

That's it in a nutshell. Oerdin, take note.

-Arrian

[Ben Kenobi]

Then Russia has badly overplayed their hand. Do they really think that attacking an American ally, when the US is already deployed in the mideast is going to be wise?

If Russia were smart they would have stayed in S. Ossetia. Instead they are rolling all over Georgia. They aren't going to keep Georgia under any circumstances, they manage to piss off the US, and you've got a big honking country. How much would it take for the Americans to cut of St. Petersburg, and for the Ukrainians to cut them off in the Black Sea?

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Lefty Scaevola
I think the USA should cheerfully allow Russia to enjoy another Afghanistan type war in Gerogia.

An interesting idea.

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Then Russia has badly overplayed their hand. Do they really think that attacking an American ally, when the US is already deployed in the mideast is going to be wise?

If Russia were smart they would have stayed in S. Ossetia. Instead they are rolling all over Georgia. They aren't going to keep Georgia under any circumstances, they manage to piss off the US, and you've got a big honking country. How much would it take for the Americans to cut of St. Petersburg, and for the Ukrainians to cut them off in the Black Sea?

I think you are over estimating Georgia's value to the United States.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Then Russia has badly overplayed their hand. Do they really think that attacking an American ally, when the US is already deployed in the mideast is going to be wise?

Even if the US weren't engaged in the ME we would not do anything to come into direct conflict with Russia over Georgia.

How much would it take for the Americans to cut of St. Petersburg, and for the Ukrainians to cut them off in the Black Sea?

The Ukraine has a mush weaker fleet and could not win against Russia, and again, the US isn;t going to go to war with Russia over Georgia.

More to the point, the Russians aren't going to occupy all of Georgia. The Georgians have kept claiming that the Russians occupied Gori for example, but western journalists and diplomats there keep reporting that no such thing has occurred.

Russia does not have to occupy Georgia to blow its military to kingdom come and secure S. Ossetia and Abkhazia militarily.

[Chemical Ollie]

I wonder how this effects next years's votes in the Eurovision song contest?

[RGBVideo]

This is one instance where Russia happens to be holding all the cards.

which is exactly why they acted at all

i wish Finland would have leaders who are as intelligent as putin is the morons here are still cheerfully celebrating a rapidly growing, culturally isolated russian minority in Northern Karelia, something which didn't exist 10 years ago

Originally posted by Saras


What? Are you serious?

Saakashvili had nothing to gain and everything to lose with his demagogue speeches and symbolic provocations against Russia during his Presidency. It was meaningless penis-waving in order to gain domestic support, and now it's coming back to bite him. Both he and I thought that US would care enough to stop an overt invasion. Apparently, we were wrong. Bush who has eroded his domestic support has been caught with his pants down and the weak, fearful European leadership is too much of a ***** to defend it's own people, much less theoretically pro-democratic reformers thousands of miles away.

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by GePap
More to the point, the Russians aren't going to occupy all of Georgia.

how do we know that

Russia does not have to occupy Georgia to blow its military to kingdom come and secure S. Ossetia and Abkhazia militarily.

well no, but what if it wants to?

[Ben Kenobi]

I think you are over estimating Georgia's value to the United States.

Choice A, leave Georgia to the Russian wolves and watch NATO fall apart.

Choice B, confront Russia, and demand that they leave Georgia.

[Ben Kenobi]

Even if the US weren't engaged in the ME we would not do anything to come into direct conflict with Russia over Georgia.

Again, Georgia is an American ally. I didn't know the US was into abandoning their allies, regardless of the aggressor.

The Ukraine has a mush weaker fleet and could not win against Russia, and again, the US isn;t going to go to war with Russia over Georgia.

No, but the Russians have a much weaker navy then the Americans, and there is going to be conflict in the Ukraine if the US doesn't act here in Georgia.

More to the point, the Russians aren't going to occupy all of Georgia. The Georgians have kept claiming that the Russians occupied Gori for example, but western journalists and diplomats there keep reporting that no such thing has occurred.

It would be wise for them not to, but I don't think they are being at all sensible in this whole situation.

Russia does not have to occupy Georgia to blow its military to kingdom come and secure S. Ossetia and Abkhazia militarily.

As VJ said, what if it wants to? The Americans have an obligation to Georgia, and I have confidence that they will act in retaliation to Russia, and hopefully the Russians will withdraw and retreat from all of Georgia.

[GePap]

Originally posted by VJ

how do we know that


well no, but what if it wants to?

1. Their actions are not indicative of it, no matter what Georgian officials are claiming. If Russia really wanted to occupy the entire country (which would be a large task), They could be doing a lot more.

2. What arguement is there for them to want to occupy the country? It would be more trouble than it would be worth. Russia doesn't have to occupy it get what it wants out of this crisis.

[RGBVideo]

we'll see

i hope you're right

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Again, Georgia is an American ally. I didn't know the US was into abandoning their allies, regardless of the aggressor.

The US is under no obligation to provide military aide to Georgia. Georgia is not worth the trouble. If the US gave the impression to Georgian officials that we would save their asses from the fire, then we misled Georgia.

No, but the Russians have a much weaker navy then the Americans, and there is going to be conflict in the Ukraine if the US doesn't act here in Georgia.

You are wrong on two counts.

It would be wise for them not to, but I don't think they are being at all sensible in this whole situation.

Can you provide any evidence that Russia has greater aims than say those I have speculated them having?

As VJ said, what if it wants to? The Americans have an obligation to Georgia, and I have confidence that they will act in retaliation to Russia, and hopefully the Russians will withdraw and retreat from all of Georgia.

We have no obligation to Georgia, and you are as deluded as always thinking that the US will do anything to provide anything but strongly worded statements in aide of Georgia.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Then Russia has badly overplayed their hand. Do they really think that attacking an American ally, when the US is already deployed in the mideast is going to be wise?

Georgia is friendly and we help them (and they us) but they're not exactly in NATO right now. That means they don't have the explicit guarantees of "anyone touches you and the whole gang goes after them".

[Ben Kenobi]

The US is under no obligation to provide military aide to Georgia.

Georgia is in Iraq, they are an ally of the US.

Georgia is not worth the trouble.

Oh? Are they too small and unimportant to care about?

If the US gave the impression to Georgian officials that we would save their asses from the fire, then we misled Georgia.

They applied to join Nato and their application is under consideration. If someone comes to you for help and then they get taken down, I would think the honourable thing to do is to stand up for them.

You are wrong on two counts.

Hmm? The Russian navy is much weaker then the US. Statement of fact. Seems to me you need to get your own facts straight before you start accusing me.

Can you provide any evidence that Russia has greater aims than say those I have speculated them having?

Why are tanks rolling through all of Georgia? Why did they have a tank brigade ready to immediately invade Georgia? It seems blindingly clear to me that South Ossetia was an excuse to invade all of Georgia.

We have no obligation to Georgia, and you are as deluded as always thinking that the US will do anything to provide anything but strongly worded statements in aide of Georgia.

This coming from the guy who believes that the current Russian navy is on par with the US?