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Ramo: I support Obama, therefore he's more viable.
Rufus: I support Clinton, therefore she's more viable.
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Obama is leading in only one county, Philadelphia.
They are 90 percent through.
Is Obama likely to get many voters in Chester county too?
That hasn't been counted yet.
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Originally posted by Jaguar
A distillation of this thread:
Ramo: I support Obama, therefore he's more viable.
Rufus: I support Clinton, therefore she's more viable.
Except that I voted for Obama -- in PA, as it happens.
It would be more reasonable to say that I support a Dem victory in November, and just want a nominee who can pull that off. I think either could, but no one but McCain is well-served by overestimating their strengths.
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In every one of these threads, it looks like you're talking up Clinton. I thought you were Transparent-Agenda-Man, but I guess not.
"You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Yes, but my point is that Obama will have to spend more nearly everywhere. He'd need to spend way more than Hillary to carry OH, PA, and FL; he likely have to spend as much as her to carry IA; and he'd need to spend less than her, possibly, in NV and CO, but the Democratic nominee arguably doesn't need those states, so it's irrelevent.
I agree... but then again, I'm a big Clinton supporter .
Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida look like they are going to be tough for Obama to crack against Clinton or McCain. I don't see him being able to spend less in other states because McCain is probably going to be more competitive in the other states that have significant Republican voters than Clinton would among Democrats in those states (if that made sense).
“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)
And I never said that Obama is necessarily more viable. I'm specifically arguing against the idea that he's unviable. Clinton does have electoral college advantages in OH, PA, and (particularly) FL, but Obama has strong advantages elsewhere (the polls in the states that I mentioned - see Survey USA, for instance, bear out this claim) and he would have a significantly larger cash advantage than Clinton would.
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
What I'm saying is that in those states the demographics that tend to back Clinton wouldn't be in the Dem caucuses or primaries. They'd be registered Republican (unlike in a state like Ohio or PA). So Clinton not doing that well in those states doesn't mean McCain wouldn't... and doesn't mean Obama would be able to spend less.
“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)
Caucus/primaries aren't relevant. I'm talking about polls. In the states I mentioned, Obama has a significant advantage relative to Clinton against McCain.
Incidentally, Obama pretty consistently wins Republicans and Independents who vote in primaries/caucuses (although that advantage has decreased over time).
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
Incidentally, Obama pretty consistently wins Republicans and Independents who vote in primaries/caucuses (although that advantage has decreased over time).
I believe that is what Rufus and I may be speaking of. As Obama gets dragged more and more into the muck (and believe me it'll get worse with the Republican attack machine), he loses the Republicans and Indeps who liked him before the campaign really got messy.
While Obama may have significant advantages in the polls now as opposed to Clinton, I do think that a lot of those states will settle in the side of the aisle they normally do and a handful of states will come into play again. So who can win them? And I think that is a good question.
“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)
What side of the aisle? Those are all swing states that were close in '04 (besides CO, which is one of the most rapidly trending Democratic states in the country - and again, one where Obama has a huge advantage relative to Clinton).
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
Obama wins CO by 3, while Clinton loses the state by 14.
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
That's funny. The Dems have been putting up pathetic presidential candidates for so long (minus Bill Clinton), they virtually attack themselves. No need for any machines.
These are two strong candidates. Not without their weaknesses, mind you. It's perfectly proper for the GOP to use its imagination in illustrating those weaknesses.
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Well, in states like Iowa, you are going to have your bases settling in and then fighting over the middle, and I'm not sure Obama will be able to get away with spending less than Clinton in those states when you are up against McCain... especially in a state like Iowa where there are lot of white blue collar workers.
Colorado and Nevada will likely go Democrat regardless (edit: you are saying CO is trending Dem, but will go against Clinton so handily when push actually comes to shove? I don't see that) . As will probably Wisconsin. Clinton won in the primary in New Hampshire.
So then in the end, regardless of who comes out of the Dem side, it'll come down to Ohio, PA, and FL. And Obama will likely have to spend far more there than Clinton did.
Remember Obama outspend Clinton 3-1 in PA, but will likely lose by 10.
“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)
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