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Pennsylvania Primary: To the Bitter End?

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  • #1

    Pennsylvania Primary: To the Bitter End?

    Polls have closed.

    Will Hillary win by 10? 5? Lose?

    Exit polls that I saw were at Clinton +4, but who knows once the votes actually roll in...

    Obama vastly outspent Clinton in Penn, if he loses by a 5+ margin, is this a harbinger of things to come, come November? Why does he struggle in Penn and Ohio and can he win those large electoral states against McCain?

    If Clinton wins by less than 5, does she withdraw, or does she forge onward?

    Do people care about flag pins, preachers, sniperfire, bad weather, bowling scores, prissy whiskeys?

    Plenty of questions, some will be answered shortly, some not.

    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Pennsylvania Primary: To the Bitter End?

    Originally posted by asleepathewheel
    Polls have closed.

    Will Hillary win by 10? 5? Lose?

    Exit polls that I saw were at Clinton +4, but who knows once the votes actually roll in...

    Obama vastly outspent Clinton in Penn, if he loses by a 5+ margin, is this a harbinger of things to come, come November? Why does he struggle in Penn and Ohio and can he win those large electoral states against McCain?

    If Clinton wins by less than 5, does she withdraw, or does she forge onward?

    Do people care about flag pins, preachers, sniperfire, bad weather, bowling scores, prissy whiskeys?

    Plenty of questions, some will be answered shortly, some not.

    Pennsylvania and Ohio were always going to be two of Obama's toughest states, because their demographics skew to Clinton's base. If his spending gets him within a few points of Clinton, he did well; if she still takes it by 10+ points, it's bad news for his campaign. And he'll have no one to blame but himself; he had some serious momentum going until those idiotic remarks in San Francisco.

    I think a Clinton victory margin of fewer than 5 points will not cause her to withdraw, but it will send more superdelegates Obama's way and possibly finally prompt party leaders (Dean, Pelosi, Gore) to sit her down and tell her, "it's over; name your terms, but for the sake of the party you have to get out." She can't quit on a win, though, so she'll certainly soldier through to IN and NC, then maybe use dual losses there as an excuse to concede.

    As a sidebar: Robert Reich's "traitorous" endorsement of Obama was widely reported last week, but less noticed was that he also picked up an endorsement from Sam Nunn, one of the founders of the DLC and a politician whose ideology and pragmatism place him much closer to Clinton than Obama. The writing is on the wall for her.
    "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

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    • #3
      If money were that important in keeping the margin relatively close (and I'm somewhat agnostic on that question at this point), why do you believe that same money won't work against McCain? Obama outspent Clinton 2.5 to 1 in PA, not because he had to, but because he raised such a ridiculous amount more.

      The "oh poor me, I'm being outspent" excuse ain't particularly compelling.
      "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
      -Bokonon

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      • #4
        Also important tonight is a special election for a MS seat that Bush won by ~20%, and there's a decent chance that the Dem might win.

        http://www.djournal.com/pages/election2008.asp
        "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
        -Bokonon

        Comment

        • #5
          Money is that important; PA is a really hard sell for a candidate like Obama. And money might be enough to carry the state for him against McCain, but it does mean he'll have to spend serious money there, which will mean less money to spend in the other places that are going to require serious money(Ohio, Florida, maybe Michigan).
          "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

          Comment

          • #6
            How could CNN project a winner with only 7% reporting and Obama within 4% of Clinton?
            "

            Comment

            • #7
              By assuming that they have a representative sample? I don't know the statistics that 7% represents.

              JM
              Jon Miller-
              I AM.CANADIAN
              GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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              • #8
                Exit polls.

                Money is that important


                There are definitely marginal returns past some point.

                And money might be enough to carry the state for him against McCain, but it does mean he'll have to spend serious money there, which will mean less money to spend in the other places that are going to require serious money(Ohio, Florida, maybe Michigan).


                By the same token, he has to spend less in places like IA, NH, NV, CO, WI, OR, etc., and my point's that he's raising vastly more money, and there's no reason why we should ignore that when considering the candidates' electability.
                "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                -Bokonon

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                • #9
                  It'll be Hillary by 10 or 11, but even then she's running out of gas rapidly. She has less cash on hand than McCain, her debts are huge and she's had an incredible burn rate. Unless she's able to raise Obama-like cash for the primary in the next month, she's not going to have the resources to get through the summer.

                  She's still going to stay in no matter what. Their campaign folks are determined to stay in because they're convinced that Obama doesn't stand a chance in the general and I'm pretty sure the Clintons share the same opinion.
                  If you look around and think everyone else is an *******, you're the *******.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    But all the rural proclinton counties will probably send in their numbers first?
                    "

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ramo

                      By the same token, he has to spend less in places like IA, NH, NV, CO, WI, OR, etc., and my point's that he's raising vastly more money, and there's no reason why we should ignore that when considering the candidates' electability.
                      I don't see where you get that; except for Oregon and maybe Wisconsin, all of those states are as likely to go to McCain as to Obama. IA, NV, and CO were red in 2004, and NH loves McCain. From an Electoral College Math point-of-view, Hillary has always been the stronger candidate.
                      "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

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                      • #12
                        I'm comparing what Obama has to spend in these states with what Clinton has to spend these states.
                        "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                        -Bokonon

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                        • #13
                          my parents and sister voted for huckabee.
                          there are more obama signs in erie than hillary signs.
                          confession: i stole hillary signs yesterday.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Ramo
                            I'm comparing what Obama has to spend in these states with what Clinton has to spend these states.
                            Not a fair comparison; it's going to be harder to defeat McCain in those states than it was to defeat Clinton. Also, in at least a few of those States (IA, NV, CO), the election was a caucus, which required less spending by Obama because he had the organizational advantage. Obama has proved a less convincing candidate in elections than in caucuses, and an election is what we're having in November.
                            "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

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                            • #15
                              No. I mean what Clinton and Obama would have to spend against McCain. I'm comparing those two numbers. Wasn't that the original point?
                              "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                              -Bokonon

                              Comment

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