McCain's wrapped up the GOP nomination...

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ramo

No candidates campaigned in FL, so voters could see and interact with them and voters didn't turn out because they didn't think it was a meaningful contest. This would be akin to allocating delegates from a party's straw poll after the fact.

Bull. Almost as many democrats voted in those primaries are Republicans, and well all know what kind of circus there was around the republican primary in Florida.

[Ramo]

Gepap, Obama won those voters in WI (campaigning on trade), and lost them in OH. I think a lot of that can be attributed to the Goolsbee fiasco (something that the CBC just exonerated Obama on - unfortunately after the fact). My point is that Clinton isn't a natural representative of the populist constituency either.

[Ramo]

Bull. Almost as many democrats voted in those primaries are Republicans, and well all know what kind of circus there was around the republican primary in Florida.

Look at the pattern. Far more Democrats vote than Republicans in nearly every contest. FL and MI are among the few states where the Dems didn't get parity (IIRC, Alabama is the only other one).

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ramo


Look at the pattern. Far more Democrats vote than Republicans in nearly every contest. FL and MI are among the few states where the Dems didn't get parity (IIRC, Alabama is the only other one).

And still, democratic turnout in Florida was significant, so to call it a straw poll is a straw man.

[Ben Kenobi]

The polls I've seen indicate Obama would beat McCain by about 10 points, while Hillary is running neck and neck with McCain.

Of course, this is March and a lot of things can happen between now and November.

I've seen polls saying McCain trounces either of them in the general.

So honestly, I don't mind who they pick so long as they take as long as possible to decide.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ramo
Gepap, Obama won those voters in WI (campaigning on trade), and lost them in OH. I think a lot of that can be attributed to the Goolsbee fiasco (something that the CBC just exonerated Obama on - unfortunately after the fact). My point is that Clinton isn't a natural representative of the populist constituency either.

The exit poll data from the whole campaign as one has been consistent.

Ignoring single state results and taking the whole Democratic electorate as one:
If you are male, black, college educated, under 30, making over 75,000 a year, you more likely than not voted for HIllary.
If you are female, Hispanic, a senior citizen, lack college education, or make under 40,000 you more likely than not voted Hillary.

[Ramo]

FL had 17% registered voters attend its Dem primary. SC had 24%. NH had 39%. Given that FL is significantly more Democratic than SC, it looks like a lot of voters didn't see the contest as very meaningful.

Incidentally, the TX Dem Caucus that you were dismissing have been projected to have 1.1 million people attend.

[Ramo]

The exit poll data from the whole campaign as one has been consistent.

Ignoring single state results and taking the whole Democratic electorate as one:
If you are male, black, college educated, under 30, making over 75,000 a year, you more likely than not voted for HIllary.
If you are female, Hispanic, a senior citizen, lack college education, or make under 40,000 you more likely than not voted Hillary.

First of all, didn't I make that general point initiallly?

And the race isn't a static thing. Through Feb - from VA to WI, Obama had been eating into some of these constituencies. He retooled his message on trade to do this.

Again, I fail to see how the populist wing is a natural constituency for Clinton. All I can see is that they fit better with her than with Obama.

[Ben Kenobi]

If you are male, black, college educated, under 30, making over 75,000 a year, you more likely than not voted for HIllary.

If you are female, Hispanic, a senior citizen, lack college education, or make under 40,000 you more likely than not voted Hillary.

So if you were a transvestite, white, trade certificate, middle aged, making between 50-70k a year you voted for Obama?

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ramo


First of all, didn't I make that general point initiallly?

And the race isn't a static thing. Through Feb - from VA to WI, Obama had been eating into some of these constituencies. He retooled his message on trade to do this.

Again, I fail to see how the populist wing is a natural constituency for Clinton. All I can see is that they fit better with her than with Obama.

The populist wing of the party doesn't buy talk about transformative change like the Progressive wing. They care more about pocketbook issues. HIllary speaks constantly about those issues, that is how she campaigns. Obama only when he needs to "retool" his campaign.

[Ramo]

He certainly talks about pocketbook issues in the stump speeches that I've seen.

[DaShi]

Woot! 2 candidates drawing record numbers of voters.

Whoever wins, they have to go against a Republican candidate that his split his party into either not caring or hating him.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by DaShi
a Republican candidate that his split his party into either not caring or hating him.

And who will be completely out of the news cycle for the next 4-5 months (unless he does something embarrassing, which is a good bet with a loose cannon like McCain). If theree's an upside to the Dems ongoing slog, it's that, when coupled with America's short attention span, by August people may not even remember that McCain is running.

[snoopy369]

That's why I agree with some of the CNN folks (Lou Dobbs etc.) who said that he needs to go to Iraq now, spend a week there, evaluate things, and formulate a plan of his own after talking to the various higher ups there. Not only will it keep him in the news - you know it would - but it means he can tell the American Public that he has a plan to finish Iraq properly, and get us out, with the minimum risk to American soldiers' lives.

The people in the middle - who could vote either way - are IMHO the folks who want us to *succeed* in Iraq, but hate that we are *failing* in Iraq. The folks that just think Iraq is dumb and let's leave now are generally already on the left and staying there; but McCain can win the other folks by having a solid plan, and proof that he knows what he's talking about.

[Ramo]

Right on que:

ABC/Washington Post poll:

Obama 52, McCain 40

Clinton 50, McCain 44

http://thepage.time.com/

As long as this doesn't get ugly, there's nothing wrong with this continuing for another couple months. Doing some party building in PA, and if necessary, NC and IN could be a good thing...