Canada may yet be spared from the worst of a US recession

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Which is why the measure is not good. If workforce participation goes up, that's not necessarily a good thing, if it's because folks who are retired have to go back again.

Not true. It can also mean that they can make so much money that they decide to make a go of it.

[Kuciwalker]

And it also means that they're back to being productive citizens rather than resource sinks.

[Ben Kenobi]

I don't know many people who return to the workforce because their skills are in greater demand after they retire.

Usually it's because inflation is eating into their savings.

[Dinner]

The best thing Canada has going for it is that a large slice of its economy is still in the raw materials trade so demand in Asia should remain high.

[Kidlicious]

Canada is heading for a recession. No doubt.

[Wezil]

Oerdin - Since asians now own a good chunk of the Canadian raw material industry I should hope so.

[Ben Kenobi]

The best thing Canada has going for it is that a large slice of its economy is still in the raw materials trade so demand in Asia should remain high.

No, not really. Asia has closer sellers for the products we sell. Like I said 85 percent of our exports go to the US. So when the US sneezes, we catch cold.

All of the mills are on half shifts right now up here, and lots of folks are thinking about going back to school now that there's a slowdown. It's good news for me, but I'd rather the economy was actually in a good state.

[Wezil]

We sell more than wood Ben.

[Ben Kenobi]

True, but Asia is a tiny percentage of our total exports.

They have closer oil (Russia), they have closer lumber (Russia). There are very few raw materials that they need, that don't have a closer source in Russia.

[Ben Kenobi]

http://www.globalinsight.com/Perspective/PerspectiveDetail11472.htm

While the United States is still Canada's biggest export trading partner, the United Kingdom has surpassed Japan for second spot. Crude petroleum oil just edged out autos as Canada's top export year-to-date in 2007, at 9.2% of total exports.

Growth of exports to other countries has outpaced that to the United States for most of the past five years. With the U.S. economy heading toward a likely recession, along with a relatively strong Canadian dollar, this trend will continue throughout 2008.

But what about China's insatiable demand for Canada's natural resources pushing up commodity prices over the last few years? Should we be more concerned with our exports to China? To put this into perspective, Canada's share of exports to China was just 0.8% in 1997 and has since doubled to a still-small 2.0% in 2007. China is Canada's fourth-largest exporting partner, and total trade with the country has grown almost 450% since 1997, which is markedly better than the 350% jump in U.S. total trade with China over the same period. Nevertheless, trade with China has many years to go before it can replace the United States as a major trading partner.

So China is big at 2 percent of our total exports.

[Wezil]

They've been buying up Cdn mining companies. This is something I would have thought the US would be more concerned about but that's a different thread...

x-post edit - You should have bolded the bottom of the article you posted. With US in recession I would expect that % to grow even faster.

[Kuciwalker]

What exactly could US regulators do about it?

[Ben Kenobi]

You should have bolded the bottom of the article you posted. With US in recession I would expect that % to grow even faster.

It would take a long time for that to become a significant proportion of our economy. As it is if the US goes into recession that's bad news for you folks in Ontario since you sell them cars, and bad news for us up north, since we sell them wood. The Alberta folks will be fine though, because their demand for oil isn't going down.

As for the mining, that's a good thing. Mining has been moribund here in BC, and is finally recovering. All we need to do is keep the socialist hordes out of power and we will do well.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
What exactly could US regulators do about it?

Nothing of course. That wasn't what I meant.

Were you aware they were buying up Cdn mining companies? Have you even heard of it? Nickel of course is a strategic metal and your rising competitor has locking up a fairly decent supply. It went virtually w/o comment on both sides of the border.

[Geronimo]

[edit] nm, found the answer