MLB - 2006 World Series

[Guynemer]

Sweet Jesus, I love Joel Zumaya.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Seeing how IMO "Moneyball" was really about sabermetrics (if it was just about finding what was undervalued to find bargains, it wouldn't have been nearly the story that it became), the amount of money really doesn't matter, except that it allows the value of sabermetric thought to be better shown when a lower payroll team has such success.

To whit, Buzz Bizzinger in the introduction to "3 Nights in August" states flat out that the book was not a reaction to "Moneyball" and the LaRussa is a 'baseball man'. He basically tries to write a book to set baseball apart from the 'statheads', ie., sabermatricians (which is what he, and most people in baseball, see "Moneyball" as emboldening).

[asleepathewheel]

Wow.

Weaver has a shutout one hitter through 4....

This can't last....

[asleepathewheel]

Apparently it can

Cards 2-0 2 down one to go.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Glavine with some great pitching leading the Mets to a 4-1 win (the 1 was off of Heilman) and a 2-0 series lead.

[Arrian]

To whit, Buzz Bizzinger in the introduction to "3 Nights in August" states flat out that the book was not a reaction to "Moneyball" and the LaRussa is a 'baseball man'. He basically tries to write a book to set baseball apart from the 'statheads', ie., sabermatricians (which is what he, and most people in baseball, see "Moneyball" as emboldening).

Many people misunderstood Moneyball. Many people are reacting to a strawman.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Arrian
Many people misunderstood Moneyball. Many people are reacting to a strawman.

-Arrian

No, I think they understood it perfectly well. There is a reason there is an entire chapter devoted to Bill James in Moneyball.

[Arrian]

Yes, Beane uses sabermetrics. Yes, sabermetrics are key to finding undervalued players. But what the scouty types misunderstood is that nobody, not even Billy Beane, wanted to do away with scouting. And that's the strawman they've been attacking ever since.

"Statheads" who don't even, like watch the games! The horror!

Except, they do. They still use scouting, even the As. The other thing the scouty/oldschool types misunderstood was OBP. They thought that Beane and others thought that OBP was the *only* thing that mattered. It's not, though it's very important, and Beane knows that. When OBP ceased to be undervalued in the market (it did, Imran, there is a recent quote from Beane himself saying that), he shifted focus to other skills he thought were undervalued. Defense, at this point. Hence the current construction of the As (he also took advantage of the overvaluing of "proven veteran" starting pitching and make a damned good trade).

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

But what the scouty types misunderstood is that nobody, not even Billy Beane, wanted to do away with scouting. And that's the strawman they've been attacking ever since.

Ahhhh... I misunderstood what you were refering to when you said they were reacting to a strawman (I thought the strawman was that "Moneyball" was about sabermetrics rather than finding the undervalued... which I don't think is a strawman - I think it's the truth).

he also took advantage of the overvaluing of "proven veteran" starting pitching and make a damned good trade

Eh... not exactly. There is absolutely NO reason that people should not have valued Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder highly. It wasn't just because they were 'proven veterans'. The three years before Hudson was dealt, he had an ERA+ of 156, 158, 133, and was merely 30 years old. The three years before Mulder was dealt his ERA+ was 134, 136, 106, and he was merely 28 years old.

So I don't think they were overvalued at the time, but maybe Beane knew something about them that others didn't. But everyone wanted them at the point they were dealt. Beane did get great value for them, no doubt.


Oh, and btw, while the A's are 16 in runs scored this year, they are 10th in OBP, showing that it is still a very key consideration they focus on. Though I'm not entirely sure how the "Beane is now focusing on defense because it is undervalued" stuff got started because just about all of the great defensive players the A's have (with the exception of Jay Payton) were acquired back when they were supposedly the OBP kings. I mean Mark Ellis came over in the Damon deal. Scutaro was picked up off waivers in 2003. Milton Bradley has always been highly valued for his skills, but has attitude problems (Hell, with Bradley and Thomas, maybe Beane is going for the undervalued 'troublemakers' ).

[Arrian]

Moneyball was about finding the undervalued, and sabermetrics was the key to doing that. So it's about both things.

Look at Mulder's ERA+... note the dramatic decline in the 3rd year. Hudson... yeah, he prolly lucked out a bit there, but then again I tend to thing they did their homework and knew some things the rest of baseball didn't know or fully understand (more in-depth sabermetric analysis... k-rate perhaps?).

Anyway, yes, they should have been valued. But Beane correctly understood that paying market value for them would have been folly for the As. Besides, even genuinely valueable veteran pitchers are usually overpaid. Mussina has been valueable as hell, but his contract was pretty nuts. Hell, look at what the As had to pay for Loiza.

Beane figured he was better off letting those guys go and getting young talent back, and did an excellent job of picking that young talent. It worked out rather well.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Hmmm. It's not K-rate, at least not for Hudson. It could be mileage (IP from 2001-2004 is pretty darned high). Or it could be nothing.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Arrian
Moneyball was about finding the undervalued, and sabermetrics was the key to doing that. So it's about both things.

No, Moneyball isabout sabermetrics and Beane's finding the undervalued OBP machines showed that off in the best way.

Look at Mulder's ERA+... note the dramatic decline in the 3rd year. Hudson... yeah, he prolly lucked out a bit there, but then again I tend to thing they did their homework and knew some things the rest of baseball didn't know or fully understand (more in-depth sabermetric analysis... k-rate perhaps?).

I see Mulder's ERA+ decline in the 3rd year. However, Barry Zito's had a huge decline as well, but yet, he hasn't suffered the same fate. Maybe it's the pitching coaches. I don't know. I know that the reason Mulder and Hudson were traded and Zito wasn't was because Zito couldn't get as good a price coming back. He was seen as the most likely to break down after his 2003 season.

Anyway, yes, they should have been valued. But Beane correctly understood that paying market value for them would have been folly for the As.

Well, paying market value for just about anyone well known is a folly for the A's . That's why Tejada and Giambi are playing elsewhere.

Besides, even genuinely valueable veteran pitchers are usually overpaid. Mussina has been valueable as hell, but his contract was pretty nuts. Hell, look at what the As had to pay for Loiza.

Well, Zito is being paid as much as Mulder. And Hudson is making less than both. Mulder and Hudson imploded, but if they continued on a regular career path, probably would have been bargains. They just couldn't keep all three.

And while Beane did get great value for Mulder... the Hudson trade doesn't seem to have worked out very well. We'll see if Dan Meyer can get some value for Oakland, but so far he doesn't seem like he'll get much.

[Arrian]

No, Moneyball isabout sabermetrics and Beane's finding the undervalued OBP machines showed that off in the best way.

OMFG! Whatever, Imran, you are always right in all things.

This is kinda like debating the causes of the civil war (slavery/secession) or, hell, the chicken and the egg.

However, Barry Zito's had a huge decline as well, but yet, he hasn't suffered the same fate.

I remain dubious about Zito going forward. I think he's living on the edge of a cliff.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Arrian
OMFG! Whatever, Imran, you are always right in all things.

Of course I am . And it is an important distinction. This BS about Moneyball just being about getting the undervalued player is nonsense. All GMs try to get the undervalued players. However, Beane used sabermetrics, which had not been fully adopted by the majority of baseball. That was what gave him sucess.

To say that he goes after the undervalued player leads to people saying now he's going after defense because it is undervalued which is absolutly crazy considering that most of the 'undervalued' defense-first players he's got were acquired during the years he seemingly was a OBP valuing guy. Mark Ellis wasn't just signed this year, to take an example.

[Arrian]

This BS about Moneyball just being about getting the undervalued player is nonsense.

No, it's really not nonsense. It's overstating the point, but it's not nonsense. Finding the undervalued player is Beane's central purpose, and will be so long as he is in Oakland. Sabermetrics is the methodology used to find the undervalued player. Obviously, Moneyball spent a lot of time talking about sabermetrics in the general and OBP in the specific.

To say that he goes after the undervalued player leads to people saying now he's going after defense because it is undervalued which is absolutly crazy

Um, no. He shifted toward defense years ago, because years ago enough other teams had caught on to the OBP thing that he had to find a new undervalued skill set. People took a little while to notice (after doing a "huh, wtf is Billy thinking" thing for a while). The market zigged, he zagged. Somewhat. As you point out, he still does have a decent OBP team there.

-Arrian