MLB - 2006 World Series

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Arrian
No, it's really not nonsense. It's overstating the point, but it's not nonsense. Finding the undervalued player is Beane's central purpose, and will be so long as he is in Oakland. Sabermetrics is the methodology used to find the undervalued player. Obviously, Moneyball spent a lot of time talking about sabermetrics in the general and OBP in the specific.

And if Sabermetrics becomes properly valued, you think Beane is going to move on and use something else? I don't think so.

Most GMs who can't spend $100M on payroll have finding the undervalued player as their central purpose. What do you think the Twins have done for the last 5 years? Why was the book not about them? Because Lewis wanted to talk about the outsider vs. insider battle of sabermetrics. The Twins don't use it, but Beane does and isn't going to stray from it even if it becomes properly valued.

Um, no. He shifted toward defense years ago, because years ago enough other teams had caught on to the OBP thing that he had to find a new undervalued skill set. People took a little while to notice (after doing a "huh, wtf is Billy thinking" thing for a while). The market zigged, he zagged. Somewhat. As you point out, he still does have a decent OBP team there.

He shifted toward defense a few years ago? Please, show me some proof for this 'shift'. Which new players that weren't undervalued using OBP but were defensively did he bring in?

People like to say that he shifted to defense because it was the new 'undervalued' thing, but don't particularly show any proof of it occuring.

[Arrian]

Kotsay, I think, was one example. Jay Payton another.

But this is getting boring.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Kotsay, I think, was one example. Jay Payton another.

Kotsay made $5.5 million a season his first year in Oakland (now makes $7M). Hardly an undervalued player. His CF range is good, but doesn't justify that salary (when combined with his lackluster hitting). Though he hit well that first year. And wouldn't you know it, but Kotsay has been below the league average in range factor for a CF in each of the last two years.

Payton is a good LF, but an average CF and RF. But he only played 62 games in LF and 46 in CF and 45 in RF. Though he did play mostly LF in the end. Payton is making $4M, and hits like crap. Too much.

So I consider this 'defense undervalue' outlook attributed to Beane to be a bit of silliness, really. Most of the 'good' defensive players were acquired prior to when this "shift" supposedly occured.

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by Arrian
But this is getting boring.

-Arrian

Getting?

[Imran Siddiqui]

This is in depth baseball analysis

[Arrian]

No, it's arguing about in-depth baseball analysis. One guy is a lawyer. The other works with lawyers all day. So yeah, I'd imagine it's been pretty boring for the peanut gallery.

-Arrian

[OzzyKP]

Argue about that during the off-season, now is the time to heap praise upon the Tigers and curse the dreaded Yankees!

[EPW]

A's winning 2-0 !!!

[EPW]

Make that 4-0

[EPW]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

Kotsay, I think, was one example. Jay Payton another.

Kotsay made $5.5 million a season his first year in Oakland (now makes $7M). Hardly an undervalued player. His CF range is good, but doesn't justify that salary (when combined with his lackluster hitting). Though he hit well that first year. And wouldn't you know it, but Kotsay has been below the league average in range factor for a CF in each of the last two years.

Payton is a good LF, but an average CF and RF. But he only played 62 games in LF and 46 in CF and 45 in RF. Though he did play mostly LF in the end. Payton is making $4M, and hits like crap. Too much.

So I consider this 'defense undervalue' outlook attributed to Beane to be a bit of silliness, really. Most of the 'good' defensive players were acquired prior to when this "shift" supposedly occured.

Payton hit .296 with 10 homers and 60 RIBS, hardly "crap". And his defensive has been good.

Kotsay has been suffering from back problems the last two seasons and his defence and hitting has suffered accordingly. but .275 is still very respectible.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by EPW
Payton hit .296 with 10 homers and 60 RIBS, hardly "crap". And his defensive has been good.

Kotsay has been suffering from back problems the last two seasons and his defence and hitting has suffered accordingly. but .275 is still very respectible.

Batting average? BA is meaningless (a slight exaggeration.. only slight though). OBP is far superior.

Payton played 142 games and batting in the 6 hole... and has only 10 HRs and 60 RBI? That's horrid for a 6 hitter. His OBP is .325. His SLG is .418. That's a .743 OPS!! Yikes!

His OPS+ is a 94 for this season. That means he's 6% worse than an average hitter taking into account park effects and league factors. Maybe not 'crap', but definately below average.

As for his defense, historically he's been a bit above average in range factor in CF (2.29 compared to league range factor at CF of 2.23), decently above average in LF (1.82 to 1.60), and slightly below average in RF (1.79 to 1.83). He's played too few games at LF this season however. Even if he played all year there, I don't see how that's worth $4M.

The main dilemma is that LF is Swisher's natural position and he actually has the same range and fielding percentage that Payton does and hits the ball, much, much better. Swisher has been playing a bit of 1B, but he's got low range factor for a 1B. I guess it helps the batting that Payton is out there rather than Dan Johnson, though, so some defense can be sacrificed.

Kotsay is even worse with the bat. He has a .332 OBP and a .386 SLG for a .718 OPS, and a 89 OPS+!! That's 11% worse than an average hitter. I can accept back injury problems as an excuse, I guess, but since that period he hasn't been that good.

[q=Arrian]it's arguing about in-depth baseball analysis.[/q]

But it's still in depth analysis . Now it is just figuring out the best reading of the in depth analysis .

[EPW]

I think the A's prove that statistics aren't everything

[EPW]

A's have broken it open to 8-2

[OzzyKP]

Heh, I guess it is a good thing the Tigers lost the division then... maybe the Yankees will be easier to take out.

But this still sucks though. If the Tigers lose, I was planning on rooting for Minnesota next.

[EPW]

It does not suck