Where Have the Hurricanes Gone?

[Grandpa Troll]

Well, we do have a subtropical system off our southeastern USA coast

Che, you play with it and keep it down there, not up here where we dun need any more troubles

[chequita guevara]

If it hit us that would be great. Might put out all the damn brush fires that have made it impossible for me to go outside without a mask.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Berzerker


Your link doesn't mention Dr. Martin Hertzberg

Yes, it does. It mentions the stupidity of using one whackjob to support your theory in the face of the overwhelming consensus of science.

[Berzerker]

I didn't see where your link even mentioned the guy, he attacks Cockburn for not being qualified and ignores the guy who is qualified

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by Doddler
I think the numerical problem is yours.

Anyway, it will be interesting if we have an active season or not. Please post predictions here.

Every post is numbered in the top right hand corner, this is post #12 - it even says so!

Originally posted by Frozzy

Recent upward trend in El Nino conditions in the Pacfic.

El Nino. Pwned!

Pwned at the beginning of the thread and yet you plough on in your thick northern twattish ignorance spouting utter bollocks as usual...

You asked a question and it was answered, but you were too stupid to even notice!

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by Berzerker
I didn't see where your link even mentioned the guy, he attacks Cockburn for not being qualified and ignores the guy who is qualified

He attacked Cockburn's source as a scientific equivalent to a 911-theorist.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
If it hit us that would be great. Might put out all the damn brush fires that have made it impossible for me to go outside without a mask.

We (in Georgia) give you the gift of fire and this is your appreciation.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Cort Haus


He attacked Cockburn's source as a scientific equivalent to a 911-theorist.

Ummmmmm noo, he attacked Cockburn as the equivalent of a 911 theorist and was strangely muted in calling into question the validity of Hetzberg. The most damning thing he could muster was:

He appears to rely on the testimony of one man who studied meteorology for three years a long time ago, while dismissing the work of thousands of others with greater experience and better credentials. As Cockburn must know from his work on the 9/11 conspiracists, you can find an "expert" to support just about any position on any subject. If you want to believe that HIV does not cause AIDs, you can find a professor of medicine who supports that view. If you want to claim that smoking does not cause cancer, or that black people are less intelligent than white people, you can find a self-appointed "expert", with academic qualifications, to defend that position. The cherry-picking of experts is just what the 9/11 conspiracists have done, and this is just why their approach is unscientific.

and

He provides no evidence that he has asked other climate scientists to determine whether or not Martin Hertzberg's argument has merit. The scientific approach demands that, rather than sheltering them from criticism, you subject your beliefs to the same scrutiny and scepticism with which you treat opposing views.

Reading good

Thus ends the extent to Monbiot's debunking of Hertzberg. Impressive.

[Solly]

Originally posted by MOBIUS




Every post is numbered in the top right hand corner, this is post #12 - it even says so!



El Nino. Pwned!

Pwned at the beginning of the thread and yet you plough on in your thick northern twattish ignorance spouting utter bollocks as usual...

You asked a question and it was answered, but you were too stupid to even notice!

El Nino conditions were waning by the start of the Atlantic season.

[MOBIUS]

I really cannot take a word you spout seriously anymore, as they are laced with falsehoods and blatant lies...

Right now you are either totally making stuff up - or you are lying through your teeth!

LAST year, El Nino was in full force - hence the lack of hurricanes!

THIS year it is not currently in effect - hence a strong likelihood of a busy hurricane season for 2007...

C'mon thicky, you can do better than this...

[Solly]

Originally posted by MOBIUS


I really cannot take a word you spout seriously anymore, as they are laced with falsehoods and blatant lies...

Right now you are either totally making stuff up - or you are lying through your teeth!

LAST year, El Nino was in full force - hence the lack of hurricanes!

THIS year it is not currently in effect - hence a strong likelihood of a busy hurricane season for 2007...

C'mon thicky, you can do better than this...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
June 8, 2006


"Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail during the next 3 months. "

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2006/

[Drake Tungsten]

Mobius pwned

Mobius pwned by Spink

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by Doddler


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
June 8, 2006


"Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail during the next 3 months. "

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product..._disc_jun2006/

"PREDICTION"...

In June the above was predicted!

This, you ****ing disingenuous ****, is what actually happened...

August through October 2006

Always of interest is the relative activity level of the Atlantic hurricane season. This past few years activity was record breaking. But contrary to the forecast produced for 2006 by Dr. William Gray and the team at the University of Colorado, 2006 turned out to be a complete dud. The forecast was for an active season in August, with 15 storms and 7 hurricanes, 3 of which are to be intense, then revised downward to 11, 6 and 2 in Oct with 9,5 and 2 actually occurring. The team gave much credit to the downward hurricane activity to the fast onset of El Nino. In fact, they indicated the onset of this El Nino was perhaps the fastest ever recorded. To paraphrase: "The warming of the eastern and central Pacific during August through October 2006 has been truly remarkable. Only (the record breaking event of) 1997 witnessed a larger temperature increase in Nino 3 anomalies from June-July to August-September than did the 2006 season. But, in 1997, June-July Nino 3 anomalies (2.1ºC) were already well above average while 2006 June-July anomalies (0.1ºC) were not. This was by far the largest percentage warming of SST anomalies between June-July and August-September in the tropical Pacific for a year that had El Niño conditions in August-September." In short, the rapid onset of El Nino and the ENSO models inability to forecast it's coming caused the forecast to be skewed to the high side. El Nino produces strong shearing winds over the Atlantic that tear the tops off developing tropical storms rendering them weak and ineffective, which was clearly the case this year. But this causes us some concern (see below).

The latest El Nino discussion from the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP (November 9, 2006) states that El Nino conditions to continue into the spring of 2007. This seems reasonable given the current state of the environment.

Of 18 ENSO models run in Nov 2006, all indicated warm conditions through year end. Compare that with 12 models run in Sept where 10 indicated neutral conditions by year end and 2 suggested mild El Nino. Clearly there is some work that needs to be done with the long range ENSO models.

And pwning Drake into the bargain too - like shooting ****** fish in a barrel, too easy!

[Solly]

I think www.stormsurf.com is slightly less credible than the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Mobe.

PS

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
July 6, 2006 - Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail during the next 3 months.

August 10, 2006 - ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.

September 7, 2006 - ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to two months.

[MOBIUS]

Except I deal in FACTS, diddler...


Here's another fact. Diddler is a ******!