MLB - 2006 Season! Continued!

[Imran Siddiqui]

Jeter is probably winning the AL MVP.. and I think deserves it. Before you knock Morneau, know that he isn't far off the pace from Mauer. He's 4 Win Shares behind Mauer, who is 2 behind Jeter.

Poor Robinson Cano though. He played very well this year and will probably be replaced by some high priced 2B this offseason.

[Arrian]

I assume that's a joke! Cano is the best 2B in the AL now.

As for Morneau... he had a very good year, and sure is a dangerous hitter, but he's not even top 5 for MVP in my book. It just irks me how many mediots support him, just because he has a ton of RBIs.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

No, it isn't a joke. Cano isn't a big name 2B. You KNOW the Boss is going to try to bring Soriano back to the Yankees. Don't even try to deny that one.

As for Morneau, the Win Shares show that he is basically as valuable as Mauer. Mauer beats out Morneau because of defense, but Morneau is a better hitter. He's not a real bad choice.

[Arrian]

Cano is clearly one of the top 2B in the game. I think he has made a name for himself this year. The entire organization loves him, and you have to understand that King George is old, senile and largely in the background now. Cashman has consolidated power, and while he's not perfect, he's NOT gonna get rid of Robinson Cano. Wishful thinking, Mets fan?

Soriano is a LF now, and the Yanks traded him for a reason. He's a good player, yes, but the Yankees will not sign him. They need pitching and they know it. They have plenty of outfielders. Damon, Abreu, Matsui, Cabrera (4th OF). The 3 starters are signed for big money and aren't going to be traded. There is also the question of what to do with Sheff (I say let him go).

I don't see how Sori fits in, at all. The Yanks will concentrate on Zito and/or that Japanese pitcher.

...

I disagree that Morneau is a better hitter. He hits for a lot more power, but Mauer is WAY ahead in OBP. There is a legit argument that OBP > SLG. And Mauer is a catcher. Enough said, IMO.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Please, do you really think that Steinbrenner has been pushed to the background?! Steinbrenner?!! There have been rumblings all year that Soriano will be heavily courted by the Yanks this offseason and Soriano wants to end the LF experiment and be a 2B again. And as good as Cano was he doesn't hold a candle to Soriano.

Mark my words, the Yanks WILL persue Soriano. They may not get him (I think LAA has perhaps a better shot). I think it is wishful thinking by Yankees fans to think that Big Stein isn't going to make a play for Soriano.

And recall, they traded him away for... Alex Rodriguez, only, arguably, the best player in the game (when he's mentally ok, as we saw after this year). Not exactly peanuts. If it wasn't A-Rod, he wouldn't have been dealt.


Morneau IS a better hitter. The Win Shares show it. Morneau has more hitting WS this year than Travis Hafner, Jermaine Dye, Vlad Guerrero, etc. I think you have drastically underestimated his offense.

[Arrian]

Those rumblings are most likely the creation of Soriano's agent. Every agent in the biz will try and attract attention from the Yankees to drive up the bidding.

The Yanks are not going to sign Soriano to play 2B next season. I will bet significant money on that, and I never bet.

Sori: bad defensive 2B, 31 years old, great hitter, will cost a ****load of money over several years
Cano: average defensive 2B, 23 years old, very good hitter, singed already, playing for the minimum.

Are you kidding? Sori is also an outfielder. Fine. If not for the long-term committment to Matsui, I could certainly see them pursuing him for LF. But they're not getting rid of Matsui. I suppose, maybe, they could teach Matsui 1B and sign Sori for LF.

But again, they need pitching and they know it.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

I'm not as familiar with Win Shares as I am with VORP and other such stats. What I'm saying is that a ~.40 difference in OBP is a big deal, enough to overcome a big difference in HR power. Mauer is a good defensive catcher and can even run a little bit.

Morneu is an excellent hitter. But he's also a 1B. There are other excellent hitters in the league playing SS, C and CF.

If you had to pick one of them, who would you pick? I'd go with Mauer in a heartbeat.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

The Yankees needed pitching last year and this trade deadline. But they went and got Abreau (I don't think Lidle is helping with the team ERA). Steinbrenner will try to overrule Cashman on this one with Soriano. Soriano is a far better player than Cano all things considered, and like the price has ever bothered the Yanks before? They'll see what they can do, but I think will lose out in the end.

If we are going for 'pick a player' for MVP voting purposes, I say forget both and take Jeter.

[Arrian]

They got Abreu (and Corey Lidle, a leage-average pitcher, which was most certainly an upgrade over Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small and friends) because that was the best overall option.

What pitchers were available in a salary dump trade?

Soriano is a far better player than Cano all things considered

Robinson Cano was the best 2B in the AL this year.

And I disagree that Sori is a far better player.

Cano: .342/.365/.525
Soriano: .277/.351/.560

Cano is superior defensively (we're talking about 2B here) and he's 23.

The Yankees have repeatedly refused to trade him. Why would they dump him for Soriano now? The Yankees are not going to replace Cano, you silly delusional Mets fan you.

...

We were discussing Mauer and Morneau. If it's Mauer/Jeter... ignoring age I'll take Jeter. Considering age... eh, might have to take Mauer. Morneau comes in 3rd.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

You can't really believe that Cano is as good as Soriano, can you? I think it is a given that Soriano is a far better player offensively, especially given he was playing in a very pronounced pitcher's park. Defensively Cano is better, but if the Yankees were concerned with defense, they'd have A-Rod as their starting SS. And the defensive play doesn't make up for the advantage in offense Soriano has. Especially since Soriano has found a batting eye!! He even had 67 walks this season.

You ask who would you rather have with other players. In the case of Soriano/Cano, I'd rather have Soriano, in a second.

And we were discussing Mauer and Morneau in context of the MVP race, where Jeter is a frontrunner. Mauer and Morneau will probably kick each other off anyway.

[Arrian]

Please pay attention to what I say, not what you want me to say.

I said that Sori isn't far better, and I believe I'm right. He's a better hitter (though not by all that much), yes. Cano is a better second baseman, and he's no slouch with the bat. He's also young and clearly improving, whereas Sori just had what is likely his career year and is 31 (or is it 32?).

By the way, with regard to Sori's new-found patience... I suspect an outlier season (given that he's 31) and furthermore please have a gander at the two players' OBP. Sori: .351, Cano: .365.

Replacing Cano with Soriano would be stupid. I know, as a Mets fan, you really want the Yankees to be stupid, and sometimes they oblige, but they're not THAT stupid.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Hey, Imran, what do you think of "equivalent average" ?

It's a BP stat, described thusly:

A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA.

By EQA, they're dead even. Cano has a .301 and Sori has a .300.

Note that home ballpark is included.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

But Soriano IS far better than Cano. Hell, he's far better than any 2B outside of Chase Utley. That's nice that Cano has a higher OBP in a more hitter friendly home park, but perchance look at their Win Shares. Soriano: 30, Cano: 18. That's quite a gap. Soriano is also a faster baserunner than Cano.

And actually I wouldn't want the Yankees to get Soriano. That'd make them even more dangerous. And then they'd have Cano to play every once in a while for Soriano and as a defensive replacement. It'd be sick. I'd rather have the Mets sign Soriano (hopefully they will). I think the only way Cano stops the rumors and talks is if he has a great postseason.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Err... Arrian?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/canoro01.shtml

Cano's EQA for this season is .293.

[Arrian]

That's odd, check this out:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa2006.php

On there, Cano has a .301 EQA. Strange.

Anyway, I simply disagree that Sori is much better. He's slightly better and 8 years older. **** that, gimme Cano.

The gap in Win Shares is no doubt due to the time Cano missed due to injury. It would've been closer but for that hammy strain. Incidently, I'm not saying that staying healthy doesn't count.

-Arrian