MLB - 2006 Season! Continued!

[SlowwHand]

To say nothing of his right hook.

[Arrian]

Nolan Ryan

5386 IP
5714 Ks
3923 BB
3.19 ERA
3.57 League ERA during his career
112 ERA + (he was, over the course of his career, 12% better at preventing runs than his peers)

Roger Clemens

4795.2 IP (still going)
4581 K
1540 BB
3.11 ERA
4.46 League ERA (through 2005)
143 ERA+ (through 2005)

His ERA, without adjusting for era, is better (3.11 to 3.19). When you add the league average ERA as context... this is not close.

-Arrian

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Arrian


This is why you and I can never had a reasonable baseball discussion.

Yeah, you read into what I say what isn't there. - I wasn't saying the Sox don't hit the free agent market. Every team does. The Sox just don't pay the kind of obscene money Georgie does (Schilling's 2/3 the annual cost of Moose, and it scales down from there).



Free agency is a fact of life. Paying inflated, overmarket prices for free agents is only a fact of life in the Bronx.

BTW - Snyder was released from KC. Seanez was a nominal free agent - SD had no interest in signing him. It's not like a bidding war. Wakefield's been around forever - he was in AAA in the Pirates organization in '94, released by them in '95 at the beginning of spring training, signed to a minor league contract and assigned to the PawSox for '95, but made the big club in spring training. He's not Sox drafted, but for all intents and purposes, he's a home-grown (albeit recycled) product.

Hansen, DelCarmen, Pap, Gabbard, Lester are all home-grown.

[Arrian]

Really. Explain what Toronto did with BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett this offseason then, Michael. Go ahead, tell me how they didn't "pay inflated, overmarket prices for free agents" or that they did but it's Steinbrenner's fault. Baltimore never did that either. Or any other team. Nope, it's only the Yankees that do it. MFY's, waaaaa!

...

Wakefield - ok, to me that's farm-raised.

Gabbard & Lester, right. There ya go. I knew I was missing some names. How I managed to forget Lester, given his recent issues (!) is beyond me.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Nolan Ryan is, by far, the most overrated pitcher in the history of baseball. He does not make the Top 10 all time. He probably makes the Top 25, but barely (in fact, I believe in Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract, Ryan made #25 in the best pitchers of all time - oh, FYI, Walter Johnson was #1).

His WHIP and ERA+ are no where near to the best of the best (Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Grover Cleveland "Pete" Alexander, Three Finger Brown, Clemens, etc).

[Imran Siddiqui]

As for Koufax... he burned very bright, but only for a short period. His run from '62 to '66 was amazing, though only second (as far as great pitching runs go) to Pedro Martinez's jaw dropping 1997-2003.

[Arrian]

Pedro's peak was so good I enjoyed his work even when it was against the Yankees. I'll always remember a game in '99 - 17 ks, 1H at the Stadium. He was toying with them.

If you're going for peak value only, I'd pick Pedro over pretty much anybody.

-Arrian

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Arrian
Really. Explain what Toronto did with BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett this offseason then, Michael. Go ahead, tell me how they didn't "pay inflated, overmarket prices for free agents" or that they did but it's Steinbrenner's fault. Baltimore never did that either. Or any other team. Nope, it's only the Yankees that do it. MFY's, waaaaa!

Uhhh, Burnett and Ryan's combined salaries this year aren't a third of what Moose makes. Farsnworthless is over 1 million more a year than Ryan's salary, and Villone and Burnett are about matched, as well. The MFY have $54 million in current year payroll (not counting Pavano, and not factoring in prorata luxury tax hit) for pitchers paid more than Ryan.

Care to try again? Although it is a tad ironic the even the failed example you cite comes from a team in the same division as the MFY.

[Guynemer]

I could not be more over the Red Sox-Yankees thing.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
As for Koufax... he burned very bright, but only for a short period. His run from '62 to '66 was amazing, though only second (as far as great pitching runs go) to Pedro Martinez's jaw dropping 1997-2003.

Pedro's run was amazing, but given the overpitching, primitive medical diagnostics and training, I think it's highly likely Koufax would have fared much better and lasted a lot longer if he'd had access to modern training and sports medicine. Not to mention the "work 'em into the ground" approach with pitchers in those days.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Guynemer
I could not be more over the Red Sox-Yankees thing.

Aren't you from Michigan or someplace like that? You don't count.

[Arrian]

First of all, Moose's contract dates from 2001, and was one of the last ones before there was a major market correction (like Manny's, or Jeter's). Like many others, it's backloaded. Ryan & Burnett are in the first years of their deals.

Burnett's contract is 5 yrs, $55 million. So while he's making 2.2 mil this year, that is going to ramp up quickly and ultimately average 10.1 million per year.

Ryan has a 5 year, $47 million deal. So while he's making $4 million this year, it will ramp up and average $9.4 million per year.

Farnsworth is 3 years, $17 million, which averages to 5 2/3 million per year. Overpaid? Absolutely. But NOT paid more than BJ Ryan (that would really be insane).

I agree that the Pavano deal was insane, stupid, bad, and whatever else you want to pin on it. Mussina you have to look at in the context of the time/market, and then it's less insane than it looks now, in the last year of his backloaded deal. That being said, yes, he's overpaid. So are Ryan and Burnett, and those deals *did* set the market this year (in conjunction with the Mets deal for Wagner).

-Arrian

p.s. I think Pavano's was 4 yrs, 40 mil. 10 mil per, which is basically what Burnett and Ryan will average. Obviously it's a huge bust because he's a fragile little *****, but whatever.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat


Aren't you from Michigan or someplace like that? You don't count.

[Arrian]

He'll matter, at least a little, if the Tigers can hang on and then do well in the playoffs.

But you're never going to stop Yankees and Red Sox fans from blathering incessantly about their teams. We're a little nutty like that.

-Arrian

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Arrian
First of all, Moose's contract dates from 2001, and was one of the last ones before there was a major market correction (like Manny's, or Jeter's). Like many others, it's backloaded. Ryan & Burnett are in the first years of their deals.

Burnett's contract is 5 yrs, $55 million. So while he's making 2.2 mil this year, that is going to ramp up quickly and ultimately average 10.1 million per year.

Ryan has a 5 year, $47 million deal. So while he's making $4 million this year, it will ramp up and average $9.4 million per year.

Farnsworth is 3 years, $17 million, which averages to 5 2/3 million per year. Overpaid? Absolutely. But NOT paid more than BJ Ryan (that would really be insane).

I agree that the Pavano deal was insane, stupid, bad, and whatever else you want to pin on it. Mussina you have to look at in the context of the time/market, and then it's less insane than it looks now, in the last year of his backloaded deal. That being said, yes, he's overpaid. So are Ryan and Burnett, and those deals *did* set the market this year (in conjunction with the Mets deal for Wagner).

-Arrian

p.s. I think Pavano's was 4 yrs, 40 mil. 10 mil per, which is basically what Burnett and Ryan will average. Obviously it's a huge bust because he's a fragile little *****, but whatever.

I don't look much at total contracts when I do cost comparisons, because all sorts of other things happen - sometimes, those contracts get offloaded, a la Slappy, Renteria, Chan Ho Park, etc., so many of the backloaded costs are avoided, or teams start to take other measures - declining to re-sign free agent eligible players and letting them go elsewhere or other payroll dumping moves to compensate for the idiot contract. So I just look year to year. Every team except the MFY (and they're ultimately not immune, they just have a far higher breaking point/sanity check point than anyone else) eventually chokes on those huge contracts, which is why they've become pretty much an anomaly for most teams.

The Sox have been dealing with the consequences of the Manny contract's back end for the last three seasons, but at least Manny has delivered some semblence of value, and his sitting behind Papi in the order adds some huge net value to Papi's paltry 7 mil.