Down with the evil Gas lords II: Kaak's Revenge!

[KrazyHorse]

Good luck with that, kaka.

If enough people boycotted gas in general, demand might drop a little bit and save me a few cents on each gallon.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse

All European refineries would need was a distribution system to deliver their product to the retailers and a network of retailers to deliver their product to.

a) They're called "ships". If gas was 50 cents a gallon cheaper in Europe than in the US (not end-user, so taxes not a factor) you can bet your ass that those ships would be tanking up in the Med or on the Atlantic coast like no ****ing tomorrow.

b) Why the **** would they need a ****ing network of retailers? In your world does every petro-company have to be completely ****ing vertically integrated? Who the **** do you think independent retailers buy from? Why is there a spot market in gas at all major harbours? Why are there pipelines at all major harbours?

So, if there is a price differential, you'd recommend to European refiners--even if they have no retail contracts in place--that they lease huge tankers, fill them up with gasoline, and send them off the America.

Nooo thank you. That's just too much econoexcitement for my blood.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Good luck with that, kaka.

If enough people boycotted gas in general, demand might drop a little bit and save me a few cents on each gallon.

Actually what should be happening if the price is so "high" is that people should start consuming a bit less. The lessened demand should have predictable results.

I just haven't seen demand abate much yet. Its tough to consider something overpriced when everyone keeps buying it . and yes I know its a necessity for some, but the LEVEL of consumption could be reduced

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Flubber
I guess the idea that ONE year of returns at 18% is not some level of super-profitability when preceeded by 15 years of marginal profitability (including a year with a negative return just two years ago) is just foreign to you

15 years ago doesn't matter. If you think 18% isn't super-profitability why don't you provide some evidence to that effect, but I'm not going to debate this 'should' crap. This is about whether the situation right now is competitive. Don't confuse it.

I think 18% is way to high for a competitive situation. Most situations really aren't that competitive anyway, but 18% is too high for the norm.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


So, if there is a price differential, you'd recommend to European refiners--even if they have no retail contracts in place--that they lease huge tankers, fill them up with gasoline, and send them off the America.

Nooo thank you. That's just too much econoexcitement for my blood.

I doubt that anyone would recommend that . . . but the simple point is that if a price discrepancy between locations becomes big enough then what is generally a regional market can become more of a global one.

This is already the case for natural gas. While it would not be usuallty economic to ship gas in an LNG tanker from an end user place like Europe to the States, it is economic to bring gas from isolated production sites to the most lucrative markets in the world. The infrastructure and tankers are hugely expensive but the fact that nnatural gas is very cheap in Qatar for instance makes it economic to ship it to the US. If natural gas prices in Europe were to start exceeding US prices by enough, then it becomes more sensible to bring the tankers to European gassification facilities.

Markets that are regional in nature can become global in certain circumstances.

[Kidlicious]

Transportation costs and capacity restraints don't make importation a significant factor.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Zkribbler




Agreed, anything over six months is rediculous, and even six months is pushing it.

You are dreaming. For anything on land with neighbors, a year to 18 months for the regulatory process might be the absolute optimum you could get and you would only get that if you had done a year of studies and preparation.

Consider that everyone will expect a 30 day period to comment and the 30 days to respond and comment on the comments and then hold hearings etc etc.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


So, if there is a price differential, you'd recommend to European refiners--even if they have no retail contracts in place--that they lease huge tankers, fill them up with gasoline, and send them off the America.

Nooo thank you. That's just too much econoexcitement for my blood.

WTF are you on about? Why would the refiners have to do anything? Why not a third party? What don't you understand about the existence of a spot market in refined goods? If you can deliver gas to NY harbour 1 cent a gallon cheaper than anybody else then you will unload all of your gas in the amount of time it takes a commodities broker to give you a phone call. YOU DON'T HAVE TO SELL TO RETAILERS AT ALL

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious
Transportation costs and capacity restraints don't make importation a significant factor.

For gasoline that seems to be true at present but a large enough price gap makes importation feasible.

Natural gas has much higher capital costs involved in transportation and although still best characterized as an area with regional markets, is moving toward becoming more of a world market

[KrazyHorse]

If the price differential grows larger than the transport cost across the Atlantic then some bright boy will see that and will start shipping gas in ****ing tankers. What's so hard to believe about that?

[KrazyHorse]

BTW, the price differential is currently ~0.17$ per gallon (NY harbour compared to Rotterdam)

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious


15 years ago doesn't matter. If you think 18% isn't super-profitability why don't you provide some evidence to that effect, but I'm not going to debate this 'should' crap. This is about whether the situation right now is competitive. Don't confuse it.

I think 18% is way to high for a competitive situation. Most situations really aren't that competitive anyway, but 18% is too high for the norm.

You are far too fixated on the return for a one year. Lets consider an industry that had returns like

0, minus 10, minus 10, minus 40, plus 50

Would you scream about the 50% return or would you consider that they are probably still in the red.

Oh and its not "15 years ago" I am talking about . . . its the last 15 years. Given the time frames involved in building a refinery, those years contain the explanation of why refinery capacity is constrained NOW

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Flubber
You are far too fixated on the return for a one year. Lets consider an industry that had returns like

0, minus 10, minus 10, minus 40, plus 50

Would you scream about the 50% return or would you consider that they are probably still in the red.

Oh and its not "15 years ago" I am talking about . . . its the last 15 years. Given the time frames involved in building a refinery, those years contain the explanation of why refinery capacity is constrained NOW

You're foolishly assuming that the ROR data for 15 years ago is relevent going forward, and ignoring the fact that gasoline demand is projected to increase by 35% by the year 2025. That really doesn't matter though. It's just a fact that the returns right now are very high and that means that if (1) the market were competitive and (2) they would have built new refineries for today that they would have increased their profit over what it would have been right now if the market were competitive. But the market is undersupplied, that's why the ROR is so high. That's all that is relevent.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious


You're foolishly assuming that the ROR data for 15 years ago is relevent going forward, and ignoring the fact that gasoline demand is projected to increase by 35% by the year 2025. That really doesn't matter though. It's just a fact that the returns right now are very high and that means that if (1) the market were competitive and (2) they would have built new refineries for today that they would have increased their profit over what it is right now. But the market is undersupplied, that's why the ROR is so high. That's all that is relevent.

Higher gasoline demand does not AUTOMATICALLY result in good returns on refineries. Ask yourself how much gasoline demand went up in the US over the last 15 years when pathetic returns were experienced.

What matters is the risk profile and the PROJECTED rate of return. I know that you get the second part since you keep on extrapolating one year's return as if it were guaranteed to go on forever.

I just don't think that anyone had projections that go to the current levels. Oil companies are very conservative. Industry journals mention for instance that kost companies still carry numbers like $40 as their projected 20 average price for oil. I would guess that most companies that might be interested in refining would be taking this one year return with a huge grain of salt.

I just imagine the discussion in the boardroom

"yes I know that for 15 years the returns were crap , and I know that their will be huge environmental concerns and liabilities but gol darn it this one year of good profits and the projected gasoline demand says we should spend 3-8 billion since sure as shooting there will be a good rate of return in 10 -15 years when we can start refining"


I work at oil companies. The risk profilers would apply a huge contingency for price risk, another for the chance of competing construction in that time frame, and the usual contingencies for construction, environmental hoops and liabilities etc. Add in that they would have to spend 10s of millions in 2006 to kickstart a process that would have them spending hundreds of millions by 2012 and a few billion by 2015 on an asset that might start returning some cash by say 2016 to 2020.

And whats the upside so far -- One year at 18%??? and that return should be much lower for a new higher-cost refinery. the reality right now is that HISTORICALLY, refineries have been a crappy investment. A good multibilliondollar investment either has steady acceptable returns or has an upside that makes some bad years worthwhile.

[Kidlicious]

I don't know where they got this data. Todays average ROR might by higher, but the average is much lower than 18%.

edit: Duh, I see they got it at the EIA