MLB - 2006 Season!

[Imran Siddiqui]

Mets should have swept, but Wagner sucked ass in Game 2 .

[Arrian]

He wasn't all that great in game 3, either, but the best the Yankees could come up with was Kelly Stinnet and Miguel Cairo. Cairo had a decent AB, and took a shot at the right side... but hit it right to Matsui.

One could easily say the Yankees should've swept, too. Game 1... Big Eunich ****s the bed. The offense scores 6 runs but pitching can't hold the line. Game 3, one more hit with RISP and the Yanks might've won (coulda/woulda/shoulda). ARod's screaming liner to Floyd, fer instance. 10 feet left or right, and the Yanks bust it open. Bases loaded, nobody out in the... eighth? With Giambi & ARod up. Sac fly, GIDP.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

That's a LOT of 'what ifs' .

All I ask for is that Wagner performs to his average. One thing.

[Arrian]

I fully acknowledge there were a lot of "ifs" in that post. No doubt. I'm just sayin' the Yanks, injury-riddled though they are, had their chances and really could have swept the series. They didn't, though. Reality's a *****.

By the way, could Torre be harsher on Colter Bean? He gets called up, pitches a scoreless inning, hits a batter, falls behind a second and Torre pulls him in the middle of the at-bat. Ouch.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Also you realize that the injuries are mostly on the offensive side of the ball, and Pedro and Glavine did a fine job in shutting them down. Yes, the Yanks had to use Aaron Small last night, but I'd rather take Small than Jeremi Gonzales, who the Mets trotted out there in Game 1 of the series.

[Arrian]

Also you realize that the injuries are mostly on the offensive side of the ball, and Pedro and Glavine did a fine job in shutting them down.

Umm, yeah. Hence Pedro and Glavine had it much easier than they otherwise would have. That's not saying they didn't pitch well - they did. But this:

Damon
Jeter
Giambi
Rodriguez
Cano
Williams
Cabrera
Stinnet
Pitcher

Should not be confused with this:

Damon
Jeter
Giambi
Rodriguez
Sheffield
Matsui
Posada
Cano
Pitcher

Injuries happen to all teams, of course. The Yanks have been hit particularly hard lately, that's all.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Uh... the lineup may be diminished, but you still have the AL MVP, the player of last month, and a guy hitting over .350 (the Cap'n). Just because New Murderers' Row got a bit less potent doesn't mean they were playing the Marlins!

[Arrian]

I dunno what we're arguing about here. The lineup is greatly diminished. The diminished lineup remains superior to some MLB lineups. Both are true.

However:

Matsui: .263/.353/.454 (career .295/.369/.482)
Sheffield: .327/.380/.490
(previous 3-yrs: .304/.397/.550)
Posada: .304/.418/.504 (3-yr: .271/.386/.476)

replaced by:

Melky Cabrera: .303/.395/.303 (!)
Bernie Williams: .258/.309/.363
Kelly Stinnet: .189/.250/.243

Better lineup than the Marlins? Yes. Better than average? I don't think so. The dropoff after the 5th spot in the lineup is massive. And that includes Melky's ability to at least get on base.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Um yeah that's still better than average. You are acting like they are trotting out a AAA team out there. Hell, I'll quote you:

[q=Arrian]they're running a AAA lineup out there.[/q]

I think every AAA teams would KILL for that lineup. Hell, most MLB teams would KILL for that lineup.

[Arrian]

Clearly I was indulging in a little hyperbole. You took that literally?

Only half the lineup is AAA-level. The other half is all-star level (if ARod gets going, that is). I forgot to mention the increased playing time for Miguel Cairo. Shall I post his stats too?

Four players out of 8 non-pitchers in the lineup are seriously AAA-level players:

Stinnet
Cairo/Phillips
Williams
Cabrera

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yeah, half the lineup is All-Star starting level and you are singing a 'woe is us' tale .

The Mets, who are not exactly low spenders, have Kaz Matsui and Jose Reyes in the starting lineup who have numbers very similar to Bernie Williams. And Matsui is replacing an injured Anderson Hernandez who had WORSE numbers. And Cliff Floyd is hitting as well as Stinnet!

[Arrian]

Speaking of hyperbole "Singing woe is us" is unfair. I simply noted that the Yanks are not anywhere near full strength. If you want to construe that as whining, fine.

By the way, 4 all-stars, 1 average and 4 AAA players is "above average?" I don't agree. It might be average. Maybe. Don't throw the Marlins, Royals, et al. at me. That's not average, or anywhere near it.

Reyes and Matsui aren't in the Mets lineup b/c of injuries. They are the starters. Given the Mets are a large-market club, there really isn't much excuse for that. Floyd is clearly hurt.

Just as there isn't much excuse for a team with a $200 million payroll to field a bench of Bernie Williams, Miguel Cairo, Bubba Crosby, Andy Phillips and Kelly Stinnet (bench @ start of season). Zero excuse, actually. Ugh.

If you want to pat your team on the back for taking two of three from the Yanks, you go right ahead, but I hope you don't think that the Mets' performance this weekend is a positive sign.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well lets get it straight, you came in here to deflect blame from your team who lost 2 out of 3 games to their cross town rivals.

I do wonder if Sheffield's, Matsui's, and Posada's single year salaries combined are even half of how much the Yanks are outspending the Mets by this year .

Given the Mets are a large-market club, there really isn't much excuse for that.

Well Matsui was a mistake, but the Mets do have an upper payroll limit, which the Yankees do not have, so yes there is an excuse... when you are paying a lot for Beltran, Delgado, Pedro, Wagner etc, you have to skimp in some areas if you have an upper limit.

I hope you don't think that the Mets' performance this weekend is a positive sign.

Of course it is. The payroll disparities were partially leveled due to Yankee injuries, and no one in the NL comes close to spending as much as the Yanks, so 2 out of 3 was a good showing aside from Wagner's blowing the game in Game 2.

[Arrian]

I'm now curious about whether or not the Yankee's lineup as currently constructed is, in fact, average or better.

There are 14 teams in the AL. Going by OPS, the team that ranks 7th is the Detroit Tigers. Their lineup from their last game (vs. the Reds):

C Granderson CF (.799 OPS)
R Santiago 2B (.485! WTF is this man doing in the 2nd spot?)
a-P Polanco PH-2B (.660)
C Guillen SS (.914)
M Ordonez RF (.943)
D Young DH (.443) - irrelevant to games in National League parks, like Shea. No DH there. Besides, were I to include this, he'd go up against Andy Phillips, who is probably even worse!
C Shelton 1B (1.023)
C Monroe LF (.705)
B. Inge 3B (.791)
V. Wilson C (.804)

Bench:

M. Thames, former Yankee (1.034! against LHP, I assume)
I. Rodriguez (.755)
O. Infante (.698)

Let us compare

Granderson has, to date, outplayed Damon (who, I should add, is playing hurt. .799OPS > .768.

.031 adv. to the Tigers so far

Cano is superior to both Santiago and Polanco,
.737 > .485/.660. Polanco's GOTTA be the starter. Still, the balance swings back to +.046 to the Yanks.

Jeter has been better than Guillen, although both have been quite good: .968 > .914. +.100 to the Yanks.

Maglio Ordonez kicks the holy hell out of Melky Cabrera, .943 to .698. +.145 to the Tigers now.

Giambi over Shelton in a squeeker so far: 1.079 to 1.023. +.089 to the Tigers.

Craig Monroe over Bernie Williams, .705 to .672. +.122 to the Tigers.

ARod manages to beat out Brandon Inge (heh), .859 to .791. +.054 to the Tigers.

Vance Wilson and Ivan Rodriguez crush Kelly Stinnet, .804/.755 to .493. Let's use Pudge's numbers... which leaves it at +.316 to the Tigers.

Which, by an admittedly rough analysis, leaves the Yankees with a below-average lineup right now.

Again, I understand there are worse ones out there and that injuries happen. I also understand that nobody is gonna cry for the Yankees (least of all us Yankee fans!). But that doesn't mean you're right.

I'm actually perfectly content with 1 out of 3, given the circumstances. Hell, I'd happily sign on for 1 of 3 up at Fenway right now!

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

If you are going to knock out the DH, you better go with the OPS for the majors. You realize that because of the DH, AL teams are on top of the MLB in OPS. Detroit, 7th in the AL in OPS, is 8th in MLB in the same measure.

If you wish to compare, using 30 teams in MLB, the Mets are 15th (Braves are 14th - StL is 16th).

And, of course, the rough analysis is comparing current OPS, rather than realizing some players have a small sample size which may not reflect their true value. For example, Stinett has a career .707 OPS (including a .736 last year in 129 games) and his 37 at bats is not exactly definitive.

If you look at past performance, you'll also realize that A-Rod is historically a better player (if his OPS stayed at what it is, it'd be his worst OPS since 1997), while Inge is hitting above his career OPS but around what he's done the last few years.