CanPol: Thread of the Year Edition

[KrazyHorse]

China and the US won't fight a war on the ground. Perhaps some form of limited engagement. In that case, we would also need the transport, quick reaction and C&C capabilities to assist in any meaningful manner on the ground. That would involve a complete overhaul of our capabilities, something we are unwilling to do simply for the possibility that we might want to fight a war against the world's most populous nation 15 000 km from our border.

[KrazyHorse]

If the US fights a limited engagement with China then we'll do what we always do: send a few squadrons of CF-18s to bomb the **** out of the enemy, plus a couple of brigades of light infantry to secure the rear of any captured territory.

[Kuciwalker]

War on the ground isn't an unrealistic possibility. It's unlikely, but not absurd.

[Ben Kenobi]

South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale

Can't agree, I think Russ Heibert will be fine.

Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam

But James Moore is a Progressive. I thought the progressives do better then the social conservatives.

Fleetwood-Port Kells

Yeah, depends on how much support there is for SSM, and whether the support for Nina Grewal was personal support or party support. I'm not sure that the support for either Grewal was based on their candidacy, and the fact that Nina did better then Grewal, despite being a political unknown would seem to bear that out.

Newton-North Delta

Considering the hatchet job on Eidsvick? I'll give you this one, but not the other.

New Westminster-Coquitlam

Paul Forseth might just hold on, but I can certainly see them giving up this seat, even if their numbers hold steady.

Nanaimo-Alberni

I think Lunney should hold on. He has a 4000 vote margin over the NDP, and this is one of the ridings that the NDP is going to hurt if folks switch to the Liberals to try to keep the conservatives out.

Vancouver Island North

I'll give this one to you. A tough fight last time. If the Conservatives pull out close ridings that are more traditionally conservative, like North Vancouver and Skeena/Bulkley Valley, then they are likely to lose ridings they just squeaked by last time.

British Columbia Southern Interior

Another squeaker. I think if they lose in Coquitlam, they should win here. Interior ridings are generally more conservative.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
War on the ground isn't an unrealistic possibility. It's unlikely, but not absurd.

All-out war on the ground? The invasion of China?

Or do you mean the invasion of Taiwan? Which is unlikely, but not absurd. That's the most likely limited engagement I was talking about.

[Kuciwalker]

The latter, which could lead to the former.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Can't agree, I think Russ Heibert will be fine.

You may be right, and it's the Surrey riding the Conservatives have the best shot at, but I think the Liberals will take it.

But James Moore is a Progressive. I thought the progressives do better then the social conservatives.

They do. That's why he'll lose by about a thousand votes instead of about ten thousand.

[notyoueither]

New thread.

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=146689

[Flinx]

Seat Prediction

Originally posted by Flinx 2005/12/20
Here are my seat predictions based (solely) on polling data collected by The Strategic Counsel between Dec 14 and Dec 19 (n=2750)

Canada .....124 89 28 67  0
BC ..........19  9  8  0  0
AB............0 28  0  0  0
SK MB.........4 15  9  0  0
ON...........68 30  8  0  0
QC............8  0  0 67  0
NB NS PE NL..22  7  3  0  0

Here are my seat predictions based (solely) on polling data collected by The Strategic Counsel between Dec 30 and Jan 4 (n=2000)

Canada .....106 109 27 66  0
BC ..........10 16 10  0  0
AB............2 26  0  0  0
SK MB.........4 20  4  0  0
ON...........56 39 11  0  0
QC............8  1  0 66  0
NB NS PE NL..23  7  2  0  0

Feel free to all you like

[joncha]

You may want to repost it in the new thread.

[Flinx]

Originally posted by notyoueither
New thread.
http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showt...hreadid=146689