CanPol: Thread of the Year Edition

[Ben Kenobi]

These are the ridings where the Conservatives have a reasonable chance of winning. I don't see them winning any more then 130, and plenty of things would have to go right for them to win all of these ridings.

Some of these ridings are a bit of a stretch, like Pontiac and Beauce, but both have strong conservatives and the expectation is that the conservative support is going to jump considerably in Quebec. The question being whether Bloc support will exceed the shift in federalist sentiment.

I guess you could also toss out Kenora and Esquimault and give the NDP two more contested seats. But all the others are not that much of a stretch for the Conservatives.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Harper ran a positive campaign til Christmas, releasing a policy every day or so, while Martin flondered and gasped for breath. Then traditional liberal media outlets (like the Star) began easing people into the idea of a Harper led government (it's like they know that creating a Mexico of the North is not so hot an idea).

Then Martin got sucker punched by the aftermath of Goodale backtracking on a previously announced policy and timetable for a decision. This, I think, is what will sink them more than anything else, assuming the Tories don't out-sink them.

The Liberals managed to unleash the (undesreved most likely) spectre of corruption upon themselves on the eve of an election.

In short, Martin and Goodale be dumbasses. As Layton said ''there was a time when prime ministers themselves knew what they believe. … We now have a prime minister who thinks Lester Pearson is just the name of an airport."

I'd appreciate if someone with more initiative than me would find the poll numbers from the last campaign.

Harper had a lead in that campaign but lost it when it came time to vote.

As with last time, the NDP voters will crap their pants at the prospect of a Conservative government and vote for the Liberals.

I share your dream NYE - just not your faith.

[Ben Kenobi]

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/5Jan2006Background.pdf

And along those lines, some eye popping numbers in Quebec. The Conservatives are up to at least 15% assuming that the error margins work against them.

[joncha]

Your dream results are actually closer to reality than any of your previous election preditions, BK.

130 or so would be a huge victory for the Conservatives, and as close to a landslide as a minority parliament can get. The main flaw with it is you have them hold on to everything they gained last time, which they won't. There are at least a dozen ridings in BC, Saskatchewan and Manitoba that they will likely lose, regardless of their gains elsewhere.

My view on the realistic range of outcomes is more like:

Liberals 100-130
Conservative 90-120
NDP 20-35
Bloc 50-65

I think a reasonable expectation is that neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives will end up with more than 120 seats. Which one ends up the single largest party is just too close to call right now, which in and of itself is a big Conservative gain.

[KrazyHorse]

nm

[Ben Kenobi]

As for the polls last time:

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=115541

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=116350

you'll find them in the old election threads.

Oh, and not one had the conservatives pegged at 20 percent. From what I can tell that will give them a breakthrough into Quebec, but won't give them very many seats. Maybe 2.

[Ben Kenobi]

Joncha:

Which ridings in particular? I think we have the same ones in mind that are up for grabs.

[joncha]

Well... let's see, in BC I see them dropping 8 that they held last time. Of these, they might be able to hold on to one or two, but I doubt it:

Fleetwood-Port Kells
Newton-North Delta
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Nanaimo-Alberni
Vancouver Island North
British Columbia Southern Interior

Basically, that's the two Grewal ridings, their close wins last time in the Lower Mainland and most what they held on the Island. There are two or three others around the province that they could lose, but will likely hold on to.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Kontiki
Should we maintain a core battleship fleet too? It doesn't matter what the geopolitical landscape will be 20 years from now - the battlefield has changed since the early to mid twentieth century. We simply aren't going to be going armour-on-armour with anyone who wouldn't kick our asses anyway.

Two adjacent sentences that contradict each other

[KrazyHorse]

No they don't.

[Kuciwalker]

The second sentence is specifically claiming that they don't need them because of the current geopolitical landscape.

[Kuciwalker]

Tanks can be used overseas, you know. What if you have to invade Denmark?

[KrazyHorse]

No, because of any reasonable geopolitical landscape.

It doesn't matter which one you choose.

[KrazyHorse]

We could kick Denmark's ass without tanks.

[Kuciwalker]

Say war with China on the ground. You're supporting a US force. Tanks might help

xpost - yes probably