Canpol: Election Imminent?

[KrazyHorse]

Ben, you have once more been self-pwned.

[Ben Kenobi]

The projections are based on the polls.

If the polls are off, then the so will the projections.

[KrazyHorse]

The "projections" are full of ****. According to that, the conservatives would basically sweep ontario if they had 41% support.

[Ben Kenobi]

18 LIB
10 NDP
75 CON

What kills the Liberals and the NDP is the Liberal/NDP split.

[notyoueither]

With 41% nationally, the Tories would crush the Liberals.

[notyoueither]

The unlikely thing would be getting 41%.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
18 LIB
10 NDP
75 Con

What kills the Liberals and the NDP is the LIberal/NDP split

You think that that's going to be the Ontario result?
Please please please can we have an avatar bet?

[notyoueither]

Actually, the Liberals got 177 with 41.3% in '93 when the Tories melted down.

It has happened before, so don't be too quick to laugh.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither
With 41% nationally, the Tories would crush the Liberals.

With 41% I think they would probably have a bare majority.

[KrazyHorse]

The liberals would, of course, be crushed.

[Shi Huangdi]

If that 41% figure was a result of 10% swing from LIB to CON(from the current poll NYE posted) that would leave the Liberals with only 17%, which in a FPTP system would seem likely to the Conservatives crushing the Liberals.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
The liberals would, of course, be crushed.

That's more ridiculous than what BK is saying. 40% is clear majority country.

Damn, I quoted the wrong one. I meant to quote the 'bare majority' one.

[KrazyHorse]

Getting 41% without stealing support from other parties would be virtually impossible, and would leave the Liberals in 3rd place in popular vote, an unlikely scenario...

[notyoueither]

As was two seats for Campbell, but it happened come election day.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither


That's more ridiculous than what BK is saying. 40% is clear majority country.

40% is about the lowest anybody's ever achieved a majority with, IIRC.