Canpol: Election Imminent?

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Agathon
Most Canadians don't particularly want the hassle of an election because of something that happened ten years ago and which hasn't yet been proved. Current polls point to the Tories being punished if they force an election.

When do the public ever WANT an election? Meaningless poll question and result.

What should really happen is that everyone should wait until the enquiry is finished. The Liberals have proposed that, and it seems like common sense.

Beautiful spin. This was exactly what the opposition parties were saying a year ago when Martin and the Liberals shut down the commons committee and called an election. Be truthful, Liberals are determined NOT to be judged on Gomery and sponsorship.

I hope there is an election and Harper loses to be replaced by Belinda Stronach - she has a nice bottom.

Is this a requirement in a federal party leader? Any current leaders pass muster in this regard?

[Shi Huangdi]

Hmmm, apparently there will be a vote on the budget next Thursday, so it looks like the fate of the government will be decided then. Any of you guys know what chance the opposition has on prevailing again on a no-confidence vote?

I also saw another poll mentioned that had the Liberals up by 9 points, beating the conservatives 37-28

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Hmmm, apparently there will be a vote on the budget next Thursday, so it looks like the fate of the government will be decided then. Any of you guys know what chance the opposition has on prevailing again on a no-confidence vote?

This would depend on whether Martin continues informal Cabinet shuffling. We got Layton as Finance Minister now (gaining NDP support). David Kilgour wants troops sent to Dafour as the price of his support. Will Martin appoint him Foreign Affairs minister? Probably, but remains to be seen.

I also saw another poll mentioned that had the Liberals up by 9 points, beating the conservatives 37-28

We had two conflicting polls out this morning. The other poll had Conservatives out front. As was pointed out earlier in the thread, the only poll that matters is election day, and the Liberals to win would be a safe bet.

[joncha]

Really it depends on whether the three MPs who were absent (two were undergoing cancer treatment, one was at a funeral, IIRC) can show up. If they do, and if Chuck Cadman (one of the three absent) votes with the Liberals, they are safe. Cadman has said he would support the government, but he's also indicated he might not...

I'd say the Conservatives and the Bloc have a better than 50-50 chance of bringing down the government.

[Richelieu]

One of the problems that the Conservatives have is that they are seen as being too pro-US. Maintaining a Canadian identity distinct from that of the Americans has always been a challenge and any party that cannot be clearly identified as being Canadian in its core values, first and foremost, is going to have problems getting support across the country.
That's for the english speaking parts of Canada.
As far as Quebec goes, the Conservatives simply have no base here, no organization, no tradition etc... fortunately for them, the Bloc has almost negated the advantage that the Liberals traditionaly had here. So this election, once again, will be decided in Ontario.
My guess: minority Conservative government.
And the Bloc will play along with anyone who wants to bring it down: if they can manage this a couple more time before the next provincial election - with Charest's Liberal government being one of the most unpopular in Quebec's history- they may help get a PQ government elected.

[St Leo]

Agathon, would you please stop getting Biblical? Please respect the Canadian way of politeness, consideration, and tact. Thank you.

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by St Leo
Agathon, would you please stop getting Biblical? Please respect the Canadian way of politeness, consideration, and tact. Thank you.

Yeah! **** Off!

[Spiffor]

Richelieu: what's the platform of the PQ?

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Spiffor
Richelieu: what's the platform of the PQ?

Independentists first and foremost. They will hold a referendum on sovereignty anytime they feel they have the "winning conditions".
On the North American political spectrum, they would be on the far left i guess, even though their last government moved a bit to the right in order to tackle the deficit. In Europe, in as much as i understand politics over there, they would probably be dead centre.

[Shi Huangdi]

Is it ever possible that anyone would ever agree to a coalition with the PQ, or is that considereded completely taboo?

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Richelieu
Independentists first and foremost. They will hold a referendum on sovereignty anytime they feel they have the "winning conditions".

Could it happen? I was under the impression that people were more and more supportive of being parts of Canada...

On the North American political spectrum, they would be on the far left i guess, even though their last government moved a bit to the right in order to tackle the deficit. In Europe, in as much as i understand politics over there, they would probably be dead centre.

You mean, there's a sane party in NA? No suprise it comes from a non-anglo part of the continent

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Is it ever possible that anyone would ever agree to a coalition with the PQ, or is that considereded completely taboo?

Shi: PQ is provincial only. The Bloc is their equivalent on the federal scene. And i don't think a government could hold very long if they were in a coalition with the Bloc since Quebec's separation is their ultimate goal. That usually doesn't go too well with the rest of the country.

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Spiffor

Could it happen? I was under the impression that people were more and more supportive of being parts of Canada...

The support for independence has gone down in the last 10 years. The idea and the debate are seen as being old, nowadays. "Passé" as our English speaking friends would say.
Part of it is genuine i think, but some of it is just people repeating what they hear the commentators say on TV. Nationalism was the rebellious thing to do for the baby boomer generation so the new generations naturally move away from it, if only to differenciate themselves.
The underlying movement has been around since the conquest (roughly 1760) however and is in no risk of becoming obsolete. Part of the dynamics of being a minority i guess.

[RedFred]

Much as I hate to say it, the Bloc head is probably the country's most articulate leader right now.

I am seeing a lot of wishful thinking from the Conservative supporters. But you are being overly optimistic. Even if Martin goes out and robs a bank the people from Ontario will still by and large support him for as long as the Bloc is strong.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by RedFred
Even if Martin goes out and robs a bank the people from Ontario will still by and large support him for as long as the Bloc is strong.

I'm curious why you think Liberal support in Ontario is dependent upon what happens in Quebec? I NEVER hear that connection being made...