CanPol: Gomery and a Looming Federal Election

[notyoueither]

I am hopeful. Scare mongering can only work for so long.

The Tories seem to have patience which I think is wise. They are prepared to let Gomery finish and go to the polls after the whole steaming mess is in Martin's lap. Also might be a few criminal convictions by then.

Ironically, The Tories were getting stick out here for not trying to defeat the government already. Now some people are bouncing off the walls.

[Garth Vader]

Originally posted by Tingkai
A corrupt Liberal government is still better than an idiotic Conservative government. Besides, the last conservative government was so corrupt that what the Liberals may have done is just child's play in comparison.

Exactly. Both parties are corrupt, but at least the Liberals have been doing it within budget.

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by notyoueither
We'll see. I doubt the opinions of most people here are indicative of the average middle of the road Ontario voter.

That's pretty much what I am, although my roots are in western Canada.

[Max Webster]

Originally posted by Garth Vader
Exactly. Both parties are corrupt, but at least the Liberals have been doing it within budget.

Yep. I think what some here forget is that Canadians have a general contempt or mistrust for goverments. . The general concensus is that all politicians are crooks and scum regardless of party. That is reality like it or not. Criticise the Canadian people for it all you want for it. It changes nothing. They don't care what you think.

So I don't think the sponsorship bs will have a big effect. It will just be more typical of any ( insert party here) goverment bungling.

The only chance the conservatives have in Ontario is get rid of Harper.

[Fake Boris]

If no one is able to get a federal majority until 2008, watch out for the next provincial elections in Quebec. Things could get even worse if a moderate conservative gets a majority by converting Ontario without having any seat in Quebec.

[Ben Kenobi]

They certainly aren't going to vote for this incarnation of the Conservatives

That's cold, hard, political reality, Ben.

They had a considerable uptick in votes in Quebec. If federalists were willing to vote for Reform, than surely more will vote Conservative.

Secondly, why do they need 65 seats for the majority? They already have 100. They need 55, and can pick up most of them, without even touching Quebec.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


They had a considerable uptick in votes in Quebec.

Uh....actually, you saw a 30% dropoff of the combined support for CA and PC in QC

In 2000: 6.2% CA, 5.6% PC
In 2004: 8.8% CPC

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


They had a considerable uptick in votes in Quebec. If federalists were willing to vote for Reform, than surely more will vote Conservative.

Secondly, why do they need 65 seats for the majority? They already have 100. They need 55, and can pick up most of them, without even touching Quebec.

I said 56, sweetheart. AFAIK they have 99 and need 155 for an outright majority

[KrazyHorse]

Are you going to tell me where those 56 are going to come from? That would mean winning Ontario, an unlikely proposition as it stands...

[Fake Boris]

You don't get it KH,the people in New Brunswick will vote for cuts in unemployment benefits.

[KrazyHorse]

They'll vote for a man who called them whiny *****es...

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
They'll vote for a man who called them whiny *****es...

And tell me how winning or losing NB (or the whole maritimes/atlantic) would make a bit of difference in the outcome of the election?

The Liberals are losing support, especially in Ontario and Quebec... and if you recall inthe last election, Ontario was the only reason they were able to pull off a minority.

In general, the CPC has a strong base thats growing, while the Libs have a weak base thats weakening. That could spell a CPC minority quite easily. And don't forget the 21 Lib ridings in Quebec that are as good as gone. Doesn't matter if the Conservatives get them as long as the liberals don't.

Of course... I'd still bet on another liberal government. People will get "scared" at the last minute and vote liberal again. Just like last time.

[KrazyHorse]

Uh....you really don't understand what 21 ridings in Quebec those are. They're where I grew up. They're not going Bloc and it would take a miracle for them to go conservative.

[KrazyHorse]

ridings like this one

http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=pas&document=24027&dir=38e/resval&lang=e&textonly=false

[St Leo]

Originally posted by Max Webster
Yep. I think what some here forget is that Canadians have a general contempt or mistrust for goverments. . The general concensus is that all politicians are crooks and scum regardless of party.

Do we? Compared to whom? Brits? Americans? Residents of the People's Republic of China?