Taiwan: Would War be viable?

[Joseph]

Originally posted by GePap


Invading Taiwan would be one if not the hardest amphibious assaults ever attempted. The Chiense have to cross 100 miles plus of open ocean and then attack an Island with limited possible landing sites- its not like you can hit anywhere on the coast of an island as mountainous as Taiwan.

China is a couple of decades from having a fair chance of doing it on its own. The point is, China can scare people away from taiwan, and try to besiege them that way.

Oh, and China's economy is more than four times Taiwan- they are using GDP, not PPP numbers.

We did in Feb. of 1964. I was in the biggest Amphibious operation at that time since W.W.II. We landed on the Southeast coast of Taiwan near the city of Kaohsiung.
We had 2 Amphibious Sq. with 4 APAs 2 AKAs in each sq.
My ship the USS Navarro APA-215 carry 1,800 marines. Each KA could carry around 500 marines. Our APDs could carry around 50 Recon marines.
We had 2 carriers, USS Kitty Hawk and USS Hornet with their support and 2 CA Cruiser, the USS St Helena and the USS Providence with their support ships. There was over a 100 ships involved with this landing. We landed about 14,500 marine and we stay there around 10 or more days.
It can be done, we did it.

[Joseph]

Originally posted by Oerdin


So we agree that China has an interest in NK not imploding but disagree over NK being a puppet. I've pointed out how China provides a life line of just about everything and without that lifeline Pyongyang goes belly up and you're sole piece of reasoning has being that Pyongyang has nukes so it must be independent.

That fact remains the north needs China to survive and China finds it convent & ideologically is still married to it's cold war ally. China has simply decided that NK having nukes isn't a good enough reason to pull the trigger and end North Korea. I'm sure the Chinese big wigs don't like NK having nukes but they're more afraid of a unified Korea which is allied to the US and Japan. I'm not big on semantics so if you don't want to call North Korea a client state of China then you don't have to but please admite that China has an extreme amount of leverage and can decide to end Kim's regime simply by cutting off the flow of energy, fod, and raw materials.

Or a bullet.

[techumseh]

What people are missing is that China is very patient, but determined. They waited over 50 years to reclaim Hong Kong. I don't think they want a confrontation at this time, they'll just wait and keep building up their economy and their armed forces. When the time is right, Taiwan will fall into their hands like a ripe apple.

[DaShi]

In my experience, there is little patience in China. I live in Hangzhou which is reknown for its laidback attitude; however, I'd never use the word pateint to describe the way of life here.

If China wants Taiwan to peacefully rejoin the mainland, why not curb all the "we will crush you!" rhetoric?

[techumseh]

Posturing, propaganda, I guess. I'm pretty sure that if China does use force, it will be when their economic and military strength is much greater relative to the US and Taiwan. I'm sure they will wait until there's more international support and there's a less beligerent government in Washington. If I were them, I'd bide my time and wait for a good opportunity.

But in the end, I think they would prefer to use diplomatic, political and economic pressure for a peaceful settlement. Don't forget, China holds a large portion of the US debt. The Americans are not without vulnerabilities.

[Kuciwalker]

Yeah, well, to hurt the US they have to hurt themselves.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by GePap
Also, China has made its intentions with regard to Taiwan clear for 50 years. Have you ever asked yourself Plato, what the Chinese think of a foreign power stating openly that they will come to defend what you view as a separatist province 10,000 miles away form their home, and 100 from yours? What business of the US is that?

The fact that they are historical allies from WW2 on word is good enough for me. The fact that they are a fellow democracy, a good trading partner, and there is a lot of US money invested on the island is just icing.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Yeah, well, if Germany's going to take Alsace and Lorraine, you wouldn't think the death of Prince Ferdinand would set them off...

You are mixing up your wars. Alsace & Lorraine got taken by Prussia (soon to be Germany) in the Franco-Prussian war, WW1 was set off by the Arch Duke being shot, though France did retake Alsace at the end of WW1 (then lost it in 1940 but regained it in 1945).

[Mordoch]

Originally posted by Joseph
We did in Feb. of 1964. I was in the biggest Amphibious operation at that time since W.W.II. We landed on the Southeast coast of Taiwan near the city of Kaohsiung.
We had 2 Amphibious Sq. with 4 APAs 2 AKAs in each sq.
My ship the USS Navarro APA-215 carry 1,800 marines. Each KA could carry around 500 marines. Our APDs could carry around 50 Recon marines.
We had 2 carriers, USS Kitty Hawk and USS Hornet with their support and 2 CA Cruiser, the USS St Helena and the USS Providence with their support ships. There was over a 100 ships involved with this landing. We landed about 14,500 marine and we stay there around 10 or more days.
It can be done, we did it.

Uh, perhaps you're missing that you were not going up against 300,000 defenders and 1.5 million in reserve troops, not to mention massive waves of anti-shipping missiles as your ships start to get near the coast. Unless I'm missing something, you were talking about an unopposed landing which is an entirely different matter.

Basicly if the US had to outright invade Taiwan today by itself, it would not be a pleasant prospect even for them. If you don't have the US's naval and air capabilities it becomes unbelievably difficult.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Oerdin


You are mixing up your wars. Alsace & Lorraine got taken by Prussia (soon to be Germany) in the Franco-Prussian war, WW1 was set off by the Arch Duke being shot, though France did retake Alsace at the end of WW1 (then lost it in 1940 but regained it in 1945).

I thought France started off with those in WWI.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by techumseh
What people are missing is that China is very patient, but determined. They waited over 50 years to reclaim Hong Kong. I don't think they want a confrontation at this time, they'll just wait and keep building up their economy and their armed forces. When the time is right, Taiwan will fall into their hands like a ripe apple.

What people are missing is that Taiwan is very patient, but determined. They've waited for over 50 years to reclaim the mainland. I don't think they want a confrontation at this time, they'll just wait and keep building up their economy and political system. China will fall into their hands like a ripe kumquat.

[techumseh]

Very cute. Not credible, but cute.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Whoha


The US is hindered not by want of resources, but of politics. The Chinese problem if that they have very little control of the rural areas where those people are stashed away. China has however moved troops to the border, doesn't have any idiots fighting against that locally.

Britain,France,et all have nukes, and they could have been considered US client states could they not?

NO, they were not US client states- France and the Uk had indepent foreign policies all along- they were strong US allies, but the US had little say in internal politics.

Actually the Chinese have a bunch of peace keepers deployed in Haiti

Wow, peacekeepers..lol.

have effective control of the Panama Canal

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...wait, let me catch my breath....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

I am sorry, but this by itself has shot your credibility down to bellow zero. Next time you make such a ridiculous statement, be sure its not a Panamanian you make it too.
Oh, and for your information- Panama does not recognize the People's Republic of China... in Panama, the Chinese embassy means the embassy of the Republic of China. Panama makes a fair amount of money from this charade. The PRC gives stuff to Panama to get it to switch, and Taiwan gives Panama stuff to keep the situation as is.

, and are going through latin America making deals with like minded locals left and right, like this charmer:
"Da Silva and Hu set up a China-Brazil coordinating committee chaired by Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi and Brazilian Vice President Jose Alencar. In the joint communique released at the end of the summit, Brazil agreed that Taiwan and Tibet are inseparable parts of China and stated its opposition to any unilateral action aimed at separating Taiwan from China. The two sides agreed never to politicalize the human rights issue in world affairs, leaving it to each state to do as it wished internally to crush dissent. Beijing expressed its appreciation for Brazil's support in the United Nations convention on human rights– a forum that has made a mockery of the term. :

http://www.tradealert.us/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=1168

http://www.tradealert.us/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=1246

As fore what is left of this post, buying influence does nto equal boots on the ground, specially since soverign states get to do whatever the hell they want in terms of making friends with other states.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by techumseh
Very cute. Not credible, but cute.

Sound like you. Except you just get annoying after a while.

[Joseph]

Originally posted by Mordoch

Uh, perhaps you're missing that you were not going up against 300,000 defenders and 1.5 million in reserve troops, not to mention massive waves of anti-shipping missiles as your ships start to get near the coast. Unless I'm missing something, you were talking about an unopposed landing which is an entirely different matter.

Basicly if the US had to outright invade Taiwan today by itself, it would not be a pleasant prospect even for them. If you don't have the US's naval and air capabilities it becomes unbelievably difficult.

Ge said it could not be done, I just showed that it could be done. And yes if we had to do it, we would have tons of air strike and other before we landed.