Taiwan: Would War be viable?

[Whoha]

Originally posted by Sava
If China and the US are destined to fight WW3 against each other, I sure wish it would be over something more important than TAIWAN.

for pete's sack!@

generally, I lean towards wanting Taiwan to remain democratic... I believe the overall solution to this situation would be to push for democratic reforms in China... then, when China becomes sufficiently "democratic" let them reunite... or hold a referrendum...

but in all honesty, I could give half a **** about all this ****

Taiwan will merely be the spark that lights the fuse.

[Dis]

to tell the truth, I can care less about Taiwan.

I'm more concerned with N. Korea. That whole thing irritates me. No progress has been made since the war.

These countries should not be separate. oh well...

the reason why I don't care about Taiwan is because it's a non-issue. Neither the U.S. or China will ever do anything. It wouldn't be in their best interests. Although Taiwan themselves are the wildcard. They could decide to do something radical even though it's not in China's or the americans best interests. But I doubt they would wreck their country for that.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by GePap


That does not make NK a client state anymore than Haiti is a client state of the US (or was int he 90's). Just like the uS does not want refugees, China does not want refugees, and a split Korea is also a weaker Korea, so it serves two purposes. That does not make it as client- if it were a client, why would it need nukes? A client state would never get nukes.

China has no problems enforcing its borders or sending refugees back to certain death. NK is a client state of China.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Whoha


China has no problems enforcing its borders or sending refugees back to certain death. NK is a client state of China.

Actually, China has a LOT of trouble doing so- if it were as you claimed, how could NK refugees climb into foreign embassies in Beijing? Estimates are that there are at least 100,000 illegal NKI refugees on the chinese side of the border. Why China would have an easier time than the US patrolling a long, mountanous border, I don't understand.

Oh, and NK is NOt a client of China. If it were, it would have no nukes. The evidence is pretty obvious and clear.

[:) Smiley]

I believe they're bluffing, and building up military to back up the bluff. The economic cost of going to war is simply too high. In addition, war would be extremely unpopular due to the one-child policy.

The present state of uneasy peace has been going on for 56 years, and has survived a number of battles on small islands in the strait, decades of artillery bombardment, and air battles. There's no reason it can't go for another 50.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by DaShi
Can't access the BBC from the mainland.


So much bullying, and China has yet to build a formidable enough military to back it up. Chilling view of things to come?

For those of you blocked by the communist censors:

Last Updated: Monday, 7 March, 2005, 15:30 GMT
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China's intolerance of dissent
As part of the BBC's China Week, Haoyu Zhang of BBC Chinese.com looks at the country's continued intolerance of any form of political dissent.

Ever since President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao formally took power more than two years ago, they have called on officials to put people's interests first and help build a civil and harmonious society.

All this comes against a backdrop of rising social tension, as many sections of Chinese society feel left behind by the economic boom.

Achieving "harmony", however, seems to have meant that any dissenting voices are dealt with most swiftly and more harshly than ever before.

Ding Zilin is a retired university professor in her 70s.

For the past 16 years, she and a few others who lost sons and daughters during the 1989 Tiananmen massacre have been calling on the government to apologise.

But in response, these women, known as the Tiananmen Mothers, have faced imprisonment, house-arrest, phone-tapping and constant surveillance.

Since late February this year, as Beijing prepared for the annual meeting of China's parliament, it was almost impossible to get through by telephone to any of the known dissidents inside China.

Their home numbers were either "no longer in service" or answered by a middle-age male voice, who responded: "Sorry, there is no such a person here".

When the BBC finally reached Mrs Ding - at a secret mobile number supplied by another dissident - the conversation lasted only a few minutes.

Mrs Ding first asked whether it was true that the European Union would soon lift its arms embargo on China, imposed in protest at the Tiananmen crackdown.

"France and Germany have always put their business interest first," said Mrs Ding. "I hope that Britain will stand up for principle and I call on Mr Blair not to lift the embargo," she said.

Mrs Ding told the BBC that she had already lost hope in the new generation of leaders in China.

"I can't even go and get groceries without them following me and harassing me; neither Deng Xiaoping nor Jiang Zemin treated me as badly as ..."

Then the line went dead.

Zhang Xianling is another Tiananmen Mother. Her only son was killed during the protests. She has also been subjected to numerous arrests and daily harassments.

"The police follow me wherever I go," said Mrs Zhang. "When I wanted to go to the shops, they even joked about running the errand for me."

Mrs Zhang is also losing hope in the new generation of leaders.

A couple of months ago, when some sympathetic people from Hong Kong posted boxes of printed T-shirts to her, she was arrested - just for receiving the T-shirts.

"I guess some of the police officers feel bad about doing the things they do," said Mrs Zhang. "Their excuses are always that they stand to lose their jobs if they don't follow orders."

Mrs Zhang does not subscribe to the theory that increasing economic prosperity in China will result in improved human rights.

She said her group had written so many open letters to both President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, asking them to reconsider the government's position on Tiananmen.

There were hopes the new leadership, which was not so closely implicated in what happened, would be more flexible. But the only response so far has been more surveillance and harassment.

Rule of Law?

China's government says it wants to "introduce the rule of law" as part of its drive to create a more harmonious society.

Last week, Guo Guoding, a Shanghai lawyer who became known for defending dissidents and the more vulnerable members of society, had his office ransacked by police. He was accused of unspecified "illegal" dealings and of violating the constitution.

Many in the Chinese legal profession know this fate all too well. Some even joke that there are more lawyers in prison than criminals.

Lawyer Gao Zhicheng runs his own practice. He told the BBC that he was not surprised by his fellow lawyer's plight.

"Well, he's made a name for himself and thus attracted a lot of attention," said Mr Gao. "Many lawyers are thrown into jail each year in China, because the more attention they attract, the more likely they'd expose the inherent evils in the current legal system," he said.

Mr Gao has himself made a name for himself defending the weak. He said he had been questioned more than 20 times by the authorities this year.

Mr Gao believes that ultimately change will have to come from the grassroots.

"Hope lies with the people," he said.

Reviving 'Old' China

Feng Congde, one of the student leaders in 1989 who fled China, now lives in Paris and works as a China expert and a social science researcher. He agrees with Mr Gao's analysis.

Mr Feng said that during his flight to the West, he was only able to evade police capture thanks to help from various underground qigong, or meditation, groups.

"We university students were convinced that the way to change China was to model everything on the West," he said.

He said he only realised after the experience that the real power of change and the real hope for political change lay with reviving the "old" China.

"For thousands of years, these grass-root organisations and underground societies have always served as a counterbalance of power to the state," said Mr Feng.

Mr Feng thinks that as China gains more economic freedom, increasing numbers of the grass-root societies will slowly revive and rehabilitate, and lead to change in China's political system.

These groups, of course, need people to recruit.

But even in Britain, just ask any of the tens of thousands of young Chinese students who flock into the many UK universities each year, the great majority of them either do not care or think that things are fine back home.

Huang Hua, the general secretary of the Chinese Democratic Party in the UK, one of the many overseas Chinese dissident organisations, said he often meets with Britain's Chinese students and finds that they care very little about politics.

But Mr Huang does see hope.

"Occasionally you do run into a few bright young minds," he said. "They quickly realised, after only a few months in Britain, that the root malaise of China lies within the authoritarian system."

[Dinner]

Originally posted by GePap
That does not make NK a client state anymore than Haiti is a client state of the US (or was int he 90's). Just like the uS does not want refugees, China does not want refugees, and a split Korea is also a weaker Korea, so it serves two purposes. That does not make it as client- if it were a client, why would it need nukes? A client state would never get nukes.

Ok, you can keep living in la-la land while the rest of us will acknowledge that the North Korea is utterly dependent upon the Chinese for its continuing existence. Without the Chinese there is no oil, little electricity, no coal, much less food, and little to no consumer goods. The Chinese keep propping up the North Koreans because they don't want a potentially hostile South Korea or worse US forces on their border. In there view it is better to have a troublesome puppet then completely independent foreigners.

Does anyone doubt North Korea would implode without Chinese help?

[Saras]

Originally posted by DaShi


Can't access the BBC from the mainland.

[DaShi]

Even in the Chinese media there have been subtle hints of increasing repression of dissident. . .s .

As for rule of law, this unfortunate story was relayed to me fairly recently. During the winter break, a Chinese friend's brother ran away from his home (which he has done before). During this time he stayed in a shady area of a small turn. An area ripe with prostitutes and such. One day, he volunteered to babysit a prostitute friend's daughter. After this he was quickly threatened by the prostitute that if he didn't pay her ~$5000 USD, she would accuse him of being a child molester and have him thrown in jail. Unable to give her the money and foolish enough to even stay in the town, the prostitute made good on her threat and had him arrested. His family then arrived hoping to ask the police to release him as there was no evidence at all of harm or molestation to the child. To their surprise, the police asked for an equally large sum of money and threatened to put pressure on the entire family. His lawyer told him to pay, otherwise, my friend and his family risk losing their jobs and possibly being arrested on false charges.

[Odin]

Originally posted by PLATO
The question is: Will China stop at Taiwan if we don't defend it? They have already grabbed Tibet and part of India. They have invaded North Vietnam and set up a client state in North Korea. Now they threaten Austrailia if they even come out as supporting us? Not to mention that the number one espionage threat in the USA is China.

I don't think people here give a sh*t as long as the Chinese keep Wal-Mart's shelves stocked.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

There's too much business between US, China and many others. The US couldnt really attack China because so many (including US) would be hurt by that. At the same time... China would be hurt just as well. China will bark and bark and bark... but they know themselfs any kind of bite would hurt them probably more than Taiwan is worth. What would they gain from it?? And besides... if Taiwan decides to fight back - well... I dunno if China could take it. If they did I think Taiwan would be a big mess - making it even less worth it for China to bother with it. And if the US does decide to help defend Taiwan that makes it just that much more harder for China and that much more less worth it.

You'll see a military build up on both sides for years to come. Nothing more.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

Or... China will do something stupid - the US will step in and bit ch slap China back to the stone age.

[DeathByTheSword]

china would never survive a long war without the use of nukes...they are the largest importers of oil and metal...and when a war would break out they will be lost in a matter of weeks with oil and metal

[Odin]

Originally posted by My Wife Hates CIV
Or... China will do something stupid - the US will step in and bit ch slap China back to the stone age.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Oerdin


Ok, you can keep living in la-la land while the rest of us will acknowledge that the North Korea is utterly dependent upon the Chinese for its continuing existence. Without the Chinese there is no oil, little electricity, no coal, much less food, and little to no consumer goods. The Chinese keep propping up the North Koreans because they don't want a potentially hostile South Korea or worse US forces on their border. In there view it is better to have a troublesome puppet then completely independent foreigners.

Does anyone doubt North Korea would implode without Chinese help?

See, the problem is, you are still wrong, andf you are wrong because you incorrectly equate one thing with another. You just stated that China has reasons to prop NK up- I agree. Then you state that this must make NK a puppet. That is were your logic falls apart. Just because China does something in its OWN interests does not mean that NK has to do what China tells them.

If China had total control over NK, do you think they would have nukes? Of course not, NK would not have nukes if it were a puppet of China, because NK would not 1. need nukes, 2. China would not want NK to have nukes.

Is that so hard to understand? It shouldn't be so hard, you know.