Taiwan: Would War be viable?

[Ecthy]

we're not selling weapons, other laws and rules prevent us from doing so. we're just lifting a symbolic embargo - for whatever reasons.

[Dracon II]

Australia lifted their embargo back in 1992.... just 3 years after Tienamun Square. Hurray for brown nosing!

On another note...

China warns Australia on Taiwan stance
March 8, 2005 - 5:44AM


China has warned Australia to be careful about the way it treats the ANZUS alliance with the US in dealing with the Sino-US conflict over Taiwan.

Beijing is reportedly demanding the Howard government review the 50-year-old military pact, saying the alliance could threaten regional stability if Australia is drawn into taking sides on the Taiwan issue.

Beijing's director-general of north American and Oceanian Affairs He Yafei told the Australian newspaper that Australia and the US must not invoke the alliance against China.

Under the 50-year-old agreement, Australia is obliged to support America should China resort to force over Taiwan.

"We all know Taiwan is part of China and we do not want to see in any way the Taiwan issue become one of the elements that will be taken up by bilateral military alliances, be it Australia-US or Japan-US," Mr He said.

"If there were any move by Australia and the US in terms of that alliance (ANZUS) that is detrimental to peace and stability in Asia then it (Australia) needs to be careful."

A spokesman for Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer said no changes would be made to the ANZUS alliance despite Mr Downer hinting at a policy shift on Taiwan in Beijing last year.

Defence experts say the warnings are a reminder of China's growing economic strength in the region and that Australia may risk its economic and political ties with the nation if drawn into the Taiwan issue.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Breaking-News/China-warns-Australia-on-Taiwan-stance/2005/03/08/1110160778362.html?oneclick=true

[pchang]

Originally posted by Odin
I find the prospect of a undemocratic industrialized China with a strong millitary terrifying.

And well you should. Its a pity the majority do not see this as clearly as you do.

[Dracon II]

I think Taiwan is one issue where Australia might not see eye to eye with the US. As a small, and weak nation we have a lot at stake economically. Plus, we're trying to negotiate a free trade agreement with China at the moment, so we're not going to rock the boat in any way.
Australia is caught uncomfortably between Asia and the West. Appeasing China is just as important as appeasing the US nowadays. Wouldn't surprise me if Australia declared neutrality in the event of WW3...

[Heresson]

I don't know if USA would defend Taiwan, but I believe they should.

[pchang]

Originally posted by Dracon II
Wouldn't surprise me if Australia declared neutrality in the event of WW3...

And this would protect Australia how?

[Ecthy]

I don't know if USA would defend Taiwan, but I believe they should.

*resists in attempt to make a joke about the role of France and the UK in the first stage of WWII*

[Heresson]

*resists in attempt to make a joke about the role of Germany in all stages of WWII*

[Ecthy]

*especially the first - check out Poletwirp's new thread!*

[Dracon II]

Originally posted by pchang


And this would protect Australia how?

Not a great deal if the nuclear option is exercized... but if historical precedent has any meaning we could well become a Banking haven and a producer of watches

[Sava]

If China and the US are destined to fight WW3 against each other, I sure wish it would be over something more important than TAIWAN.

for pete's sack!@

generally, I lean towards wanting Taiwan to remain democratic... I believe the overall solution to this situation would be to push for democratic reforms in China... then, when China becomes sufficiently "democratic" let them reunite... or hold a referrendum...

but in all honesty, I could give half a **** about all this ****

[Joseph]

Taiwan free at last, free at last. ML King said that without refering to Taiwan.

The Republic of Taiwan.

[Dr Strangelove]

Originally posted by molly bloom



In which case when the Nationalists leave it will presumably revert to 'native' rule. Or Dutch rule. Unless you can find a Manchu or Ming aristocrat who wants to step in.

"When defeated by the Qing in the epic battle for Nanjing in the mid-17th century, Zheng had little choice but to flee China and re-establish his base "overseas". Enter Taiwan, which the Dutch had occupied since 1624, and whom Zheng expelled after a lengthy war. Zheng was not a pre-modern Chiang Kai-shek, however, who was preparing to retake China; rather he aimed to invade the Philippines. As for the milk and honey, well, the "Taiwanese natives were less pleased, since their island was merely swapping one set of conquerors for another," Clements writes.

'Pirate King: Coxinga and the Fall of the Ming Dynasty' goes beyond just the biographical details of the legendary warrior. As its subtitle indicates, the book begins with the collapse of the Ming Dynasty in 1644 and recounts in an engaging narrative the pivotal events of China's dynastic upheaval: The fall of the Ming; the invasion of the Manchus from the north and the establishment of the Qing Dynasty in Beijing; and the fight for the south that would not be complete until Taiwan was conquered in 1683. "

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FH28Ad03.html

So Taiwan was taken over by an independent Chinese warlord in the late 17th century? How long did Taiwan then remain independent of the Chinese monarchy?

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Dr Strangelove
So Taiwan was taken over by an independent Chinese warlord in the late 17th century?

No. Zheng was a general of the Ming dynasty, and he pledged allegiance to the Ming dynasty even after the Mainland fell to the nasty Manchus. Thus, the situation was an exact parallel of today's situation. Zheng made several attempts to counterattack, but was eventually repelled.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by pchang
And well you should. Its a pity the majority do not see this as clearly as you do.

"Democratic" and "warmongering" are not mutually exclusive. The US is a prime example of this.