Chechnya - do they deserve independence?

[Sprayber]

Originally posted by Ned
Sprayber, Yes, I believe what I say. What have we learned from history. No country can indefinitely occupy a hostile population. Something has to give. Historically, the hostile population was simply wiped out or sold into slavery. This is not a serious option for the Russians. What they have in Chechnya is another "Afghanistan." I think they will figure it out and make peace. But this peace will involve a plan to let Chechnya go free.

How long do you propose the Chechens wait for the Russians to come to this conclusion? It's all good for you to set here in the states and talk about the Russians comming to their senses. But the Chechens are there in their ruined city looking at what Russian control means. The Russians won't leave Chechnya until it becomes too painful for them to stay, not when they have an attack of compassion. The Russian people seem to have a high tolerence for loss of life for their own people and others. We shall see what the response is to this newest attack in Moscow is. Putin now has the argument of fighting terrorism on his side and so far the US is buying that.

[Ned]

Spayber, The United States is not going to war with Russia over Chechnya. At best, we can influence Russian actions by raising the issues diplomatically. But, in the, end, the only way Chechnya goes free is if Russia lets them. I simply beleive that in time they will let them go free just as they let the Baltic states, Byelorussia, the Ukraine, etc., go free.

These are my views.

What are you proposing? Are you suggesting that we supply arms to the Chechens? I'd rather supply food and reconstruction aid.

[Heresson]

Russia will never let it go free; it didn't let "Baltic states etc".
They are independant legally, but Russia still was opposing thier (and Polish, and Czech, and Hungarian etc) accession to UE or NATO. Russia will never resign of Tchechenia, at least not formally. It is afraid that in such situation, it will
fall apart completely. And letting go such little land would be a sign of their weakness that they can't afford to show.

[Sprayber]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Ned
Spayber, The United States is not going to war with Russia over Chechnya.[QUOTE]

Have I said they would the US will do whatever it feels is in its best interest. Up until last year Chechnya was a human rights vilolation. Now its a war on terrorism. Things changed with what was best for our interests.

At best, we can influence Russian actions by raising the issues diplomatically. But, in the, end, the only way Chechnya goes free is if Russia lets them. I simply beleive that in time they will let them go free just as they let the Baltic states, Byelorussia, the Ukraine, etc., go free.

Didnt I say that Russia will hold on to Chechnya until it becomes too painful? I just questioned your view that this is about terrorism. It's about Russia not wanting to let it go pure and simple. And until the time comes that the cost of keeping Chechnya is too high they will continue to do whatever it takes. Even if they have to declare everyone in Chechnya a terrorist.

What are you proposing? Are you suggesting that we supply arms to the Chechens? I'd rather supply food and reconstruction aid.

Why do we need to supply food and reconstruction aid? If the Russians care so much about their Chechen brothers, why don't they supply those things? The Chechens are so well taken care of by their sympathetic Russian overlords.

Oh and Russia didn't let the Baltics go. The Baltics just went. The Russians couldnt very well go around doing what they do in Chechnya to Lit, Estonia, and Lativia.

[Ned]

I see here that no one believes Russia has changed a bit from the days of the USSR or, for even that matter, from the days of the Empire. Perhaps Serb can comment, but I believe Russia would be willing to grant the Chechens at least autonomy if they are willing to live responsibly within their own borders. Russian occupation, in my view, really is about Russian security against invasion and terrorism. It is not about imposing Russian rule on an alienated people.

I don't know what the future holds for the Chechen people. Perhaps they will migrate in large numbers to the United States, get rich, and supply underground terrorist organizations with funding as the American Irish do to the IRA.

I would rather see real peace in Chechnya. I understand the leader of the Chechens has called for peace talks. Let us hope this leads to peace.

[Sprayber]

Originally posted by Ned
I see here that no one believes Russia has changed a bit from the days of the USSR or, for even that matter, from the days of the Empire. Perhaps Serb can comment, but I believe Russia would be willing to grant the Chechens at least autonomy if they are willing to live responsibly within their own borders. Russian occupation, in my view, really is about Russian security against invasion and terrorism. It is not about imposing Russian rule on an alienated people.

You dont have to go back to imperialist Russian or Communist Russia, just go back to a few years ago when they leveled Grozny. In their quest to get terrorists, they only succeeded in making new ones out of the people they left homeless and grieving dead family members. Their quest for security has insured that there will always be Chechens that will want to kill Russians. It is a lesson that America should be careful to avoid.

The sad fact is that as long as they stay in Chechnya, Chechens will venture inside Russia to kill Russians thus giving Russia a ready made excuse to stay.

[Lord Merciless]

It's too late for Russians to pull out now. They pissed off Chechens beyond reconciliation. What they need to do now is completely crush the Chechen resistance, then think about rebuilding. A war without decision is the worst kind of war.

[Mihai]

Ned
Russia won't let go at anything. Russia Federation is a puzzle of autonomous regions and teritories and if they let one go, in no time (almost) all will want to go. Tatarstan (IIRC is somewhere east of Moscow, in Urals) is an autonomous region with a tatar majority and economicly de facto independent (they have diamonds and others minerals). They are confortable with this situation and they don't ask for more, so they are let in peace. There wasn't any problem in a decade, but there isn't any sigh that Russia is considering let them go. When Chechenya declared officialy independent in 1991, first reaction of Moscow was to sent troops (that plane full of paras I was talking about). Russia never said "If you are good and peaceful, we will recognise your declaration of independence".

The Russian XIV army is still in Republic of Moldova even if Russia recognised Moldova independence and they agreed to retreat that army few years ago. They keep come out with excuses to keep what is practicly an occupation army in a suveran country.

[Harovan]

There's a significant difference between the Baltics and Chechnya. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia were a part of the USSR, and the time they declared their independence it was already visible, that the USSR would desintegrate. So Gorbachevs try to punish them by denying them oil (or demanding world market prices from one day to the other, knowing they can't pay that) was pretty lame. Their relationship to Russia was de jure from one souvereign union member to the other, although we all know that it was de facto otherwise.

Chechnya is a part of Russia itself, which is far from going to desintegrate and it really depends on the will of the central government in Moscow to let them go. But since Chechnya and its neighbors hold a big amount of natural resources, I doubt that they ever will be allowed to go. The maximum they will be allowed to have at free will, is autonomy. For all else they have to fight.

[Harovan]

Originally posted by Lord Merciless
What they need to do now is completely crush the Chechen resistance, ...

That would mean to kill all Chechens. Would you approve this?

[Mihai]

Chechnya is (was?) an autonomous region of the Russian Federation. This mean less that what a socialist soviet reublic was in USSR, but is more than just a region of Russia. Also the majority of that region considere itself as conquered.

[muxec]

Giving independence to terrorist will lead to 3rd world war.

[muxec]

Give to Chechnja independence, but only when England will give independence to Nortern Ireland

[Mihai]

There are just a few cases when some nation/ethnic group gain independence peacefully.