French Elections : Will Le Pen make it to the second round?

[Eli]

Currently, Le Pen has more votes than Jospin. When will the official results be announced?

[Stefu]

Chirac vs. Le Pen? That'd be... interesting.

President Le Pen, though unlikely, would be very interesting.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Stupid democratic systems. Leaders should be decided by a fist-fight tournament.

[Eli]

Babelfish translation of :

http://elections.lemonde.fr/presidentielle/actu/aujourdhui/0,,907895,00.html

I couldnt find updated stories on the English news sites.

Jacques Chirac at the head

According to a Sofres-Bull estimate for TF1, the World and RTL, Jacques Chirac would arrive at the head with 19,8 % of the voices. Jean-Marie the PEN would follow, with 17,4% of the voices then Lionel Jospin with 16%. In addition, according to several institutes of surveys, the rate of abstention from the first tower of presidential should reach or to exceed the 28%, is an absolute record for a first turn of the election queen of Ve République.
The World | 21.04.02

The first estimates of the result of the first turn of the presidential election created the surprise. According to a Sofres-Bull estimate for TF1, the World and RTL, Jacques Chirac would arrive at the head with 19,8 % of the voices. Jean-Marie the PEN would follow, with 17,4% of the voices then Lionel Jospin with 16%. As for the estimates of CSA, Jacques Chirac always arrives at the head with 20% of the voices, followed by Jean-Marie the PEN to 18%, then by Lionel Jospin with 16% of the voices.

All the three joined their HQ of countryside. Jean-Marie the PEN ensured, at the end of the day at her HQ of countryside which it was "within sight of the surveys, rather largely, for the moment, in front of Lionel Jospin" . Mr. the PEN added in front of the journalists: "I am always wary of the surveys, but for the moment, the forecasts seem to me favorable . (...) Ca inspires to me that work, the perseverance and the assistance of God end up triumphing over all the obstacles ".

Lionel Jospin arrived around 19 hours at its Parisian HQ of countryside. On the spot, the faces were tended, certain militants fearing even that their candidate does not reach the second turn because of a high score of the president of the national Face.

RATE Of ABSTENTION RECORD

The rate of abstention for the unit from the day to the first tower of presidential should reach or exceed the 28%, that is to say an absolute record for a first turn of the election queen of the O C République, according to estimates' of the institutes of survey. The estimate of the Sofres institute for TF1, RTL, the World gives a rate of abstention from 28 % of the registered voters. The Ipsos institute for Vizzavi, France 2, the Barber, Europe 1, the Point, gives a figure of 28,5 %, slightly lower than that of CSA for France Information, France 3, Paris-Match, Orange (28,9 %). the abstention would be thus higher of more than six points than that recorded at the time of presidential of 1995 (21,6 %).

The strongest rate of abstention from a first turn had been reached in 1969, with 22,4 % of the registered voters.

The official figures of the ministry for the interior also indicated a less mobilization of the French than in 1995: 58,55 % of the voters had voted at 17 hours, against 64,02 % in 1995 per same hour, that is to say a fall of 5,47 points.

With AFP and Reuters

[Eli]

And in normal English :

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_1942000/1942612.stm

Shock 'success' for French far right
Exit polls, just released at the close of voting in the French presidential election suggest that far-right leader Jean Marie Le Pen is through to the second round.
If confirmed, he will face the incumbent President, Jacques Chirac, on 5 May.

It had been widely expected that French Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, would be Mr Chirac's rival in round two, but the exit polls suggest he has been eliminated.

The BBC's James Coomarasamy in Paris says that if the polls are confirmed, this would be the biggest upset in French electoral history.

The last polls before the election put Mr Le Pen, leader of the National Front, on 13% or 14%, compared with 18% for Mr Jospin.

[Az]

Very interesting.
I see many of my predictions come to life.
It's disturbing , but sort of guessed such a thing would happen.

[Ecthy]

Yes, it is absolutely worrying how a right-winger can gain so much popularity in a country that used to be consdered progressive. In the EU2 OT, an Israeli quoted some other Israeli () who said something like "The French are fascists with the cover of being socialist" or something like that. I think that might make sense in some way, since that society is pretty tight when it comes to immigrants though has a pretty progressie government, or so it seems (social democrats, greens, socialists).

I personally doubt he'll make it, but it's worrying enough he got so far. And then, look into other countries. Jörg Haider comes to mind, although he's not a part of the government himself. And then, there are other examples of parties just winning elections by mere populism, such as those of Berlusconi in Italy or Schill in Germany (so far only in Hamburg though). I don't say those guys are fascists, but they came to power by mere populism, that's a fact.

This must be in some conneciton with recent events. People want to be protected, so they go for those that make the impression of being strongest etc. Do you think it works like this?

[Eli]

I believe that in the next election campaign, or at the one after it, Le Pen or his successor will win.

[Saint Marcus]

Le Pen will make it. Chirac is likely to win the second round though.

The Neo-Trotskyists did pretty well too. Pretty amazing.

[Adalbertus]

I've found this in the media, too.

Apparently the French are (were) used to use the first round of the presidential elections as a means of protest, because it hasn't had much influcence in the past, anyway. You can see this protest behaviour by the fact that no candidate had substantially more than 20% of votes, so I would guess there are at least five or six with more than 10 %. The second round was considered as the real one. True ... until today.

Maybe the "left" votes were splitted on too many candidates? They had a record number of candidates, and - I think - many of them are alternatives more to Jospin than Chirac.

So I would guess the 17% of Le Pen are his real supporters, the rest will have to live with voting for Chirac. I think this was the usual nationwide percentage of Le Pen supporters in previous elections. I don't worry about this more than any other election where the Front National gets 17% - apart from the fact that this are roughly 21 % too much.

I think it's mostly a result of the inability of the French left to cooperate - which isn't really new either. They lost the last presidential elections about the same way.
Vive la Trance!

[Ecthy]

Originally posted by Saint Marcus
Le Pen came in second. Chirac is likely to win the second round though.

Pretty likely, but that's this time. What about next time?

I'm convinced there need to be steps undertaken to make people more interested in politics. They're only listening to bastards anymore, to those that knw how to impress them most. Let's hope he'll get so crushed in the secodn round that his party will lose some popularity in it. But hopeing that can't be all.

What can we do? _

[Eli]

Originally posted by Ecthelion
What can we do? _

Stop the mass Muslim/Arab immigration to France. Eventually this will lead to a far right president and the situation will explode(not necesseraly in this order).

[Ecthy]

That would mean right-wingers will kill themselves eventually cause they stop immigration

And then, why would a foreigner vote for someone who advertises kicking the same foreigner out?

[Bereta_Eder]

Re: French Elections : Will Le Pen make it to the second round?

sh!t

Espece d'ordure.

I thought Le pen was down and out...

What can we do, what can we do...?

[Ecthy]

We need to make piece first before we crush him altogether.