Al Jazeera brodcasts message from bin Laden!

[lord of the mark]

so who did al jizz get the tape from?

[Drachasor]

Originally posted by Stefu
HEY EVERYBODY, LET'S PICK APART BIN LADEN'S MESSAGE AS REGARDING WHICH CANDIDATE HE'S TRYING TO MAKE WIN WITH IT, AND THEN VOTE AGAINST THAT CANDIDATE

IF WE DON'T DO THAT, THE TERRORISTS WIN!

"Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda," bin Laden said in the video aired on the Arabic language network Al-Jazeera.

According to CNN.

We're screwed!

-Drachasor

[-Jrabbit]

HEY EVERYBODY, LET'S PICK APART BIN LADEN'S MESSAGE AS REGARDING WHICH CANDIDATE HE'S TRYING TO MAKE WIN WITH IT, AND THEN VOTE AGAINST THAT CANDIDATE

IF WE DON'T DO THAT, THE TERRORISTS WIN!

That's exactly what they want you to do.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Was the assertion that he suffered from kidney failure a lie?

It seems like it. He looked very healthy.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

Was the assertion that he suffered from kidney failure a lie?

It seems like it. He looked very healthy.

That doesnt prove the kidney failure assertion a lie, as Im sure you realize, Imran. It could mean hes somewhere where he can get dialysis.

[rah]

For those that may think it's code, his a related article from the paper this morning.

Video warns of terrorism soon in U.S.

The Washington Post
Published October 29, 2004

WASHINGTON -- ABC News aired a videotape Thursday night of a purported American member of Al Qaeda declaring that a new series of terrorist attacks against the United States could come "at any moment."

The network, which has held the tape since Monday while it tried to authenticate it, acted after being told by the CIA that the video bears "all the trademarks of an Al Qaeda production," as reporter Brian Ross explained. Federal investigators don't know the identity of the man on the tape, but the government is distributing copies to 13 current and former officials named during the 75-minute video.

Officials have been unable to match the speaker's voice to any known Al Qaeda supporter or sympathizer.

The speaker--his face is obscured and he is identified only as "Azzam the American"--says on the videotape: "No, my fellow countrymen, you are guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty. You are as guilty as Bush and Cheney. You're as guilty as Rumsfeld and Ashcroft and Powell."

The man continued: "After decades of American tyranny and oppression, now it's your turn to die."

A U.S. counterterrorism official said that intelligence analysts are still examining the tape. It has been judged to be of professional quality and the speaker is considered to be college-educated and probably raised or educated in this country, the official said.


Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune

Could this be a warning?

[Imran Siddiqui]

It could mean hes somewhere where he can get dialysis.

True... but it seems unlikely to me.

[Stefu]

quote:
"Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda," bin Laden said in the video aired on the Arabic language network Al-Jazeera.

BREAKING NEWS

BIN LADEN ENDORSES NADER

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by rah
For those that may think it's code, his a related article from the paper this morning.

Video warns of terrorism soon in U.S.

The Washington Post
Published October 29, 2004

WASHINGTON -- ABC News aired a videotape Thursday night of a purported American member of Al Qaeda declaring that a new series of terrorist attacks against the United States could come "at any moment."

The network, which has held the tape since Monday while it tried to authenticate it, acted after being told by the CIA that the video bears "all the trademarks of an Al Qaeda production," as reporter Brian Ross explained. Federal investigators don't know the identity of the man on the tape, but the government is distributing copies to 13 current and former officials named during the 75-minute video.

Officials have been unable to match the speaker's voice to any known Al Qaeda supporter or sympathizer.

The speaker--his face is obscured and he is identified only as "Azzam the American"--says on the videotape: "No, my fellow countrymen, you are guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty. You are as guilty as Bush and Cheney. You're as guilty as Rumsfeld and Ashcroft and Powell."

The man continued: "After decades of American tyranny and oppression, now it's your turn to die."

A U.S. counterterrorism official said that intelligence analysts are still examining the tape. It has been judged to be of professional quality and the speaker is considered to be college-educated and probably raised or educated in this country, the official said.


Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune

Could this be a warning?

secret codes by their nature, are well, secret.

IE Rumsfeld, and Ashcroft doesnt mean theyre gonna assasinate Rummy or the Fundie jerk AG.
"Rumsfeld" could be code for "The Sears Tower". Or "Gatwick Airport" Or "all cells run to Iraq right now"
"Cell 55, belay that last order"

No point in speculating. Leave it to the puzzle decoders at NSA.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

It could mean hes somewhere where he can get dialysis.

True... but it seems unlikely to me.

Have you seen the Dan Darling material?

[Imran Siddiqui]

The whosa?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
The whosa?

http://windsofchange.net/archives/005756.php

Darling quoting ledeen

'The US intelligence community, which had scoffed at the very idea of Iran/Al Qaeda cooperation, now seriously considered the possibility that bin Laden himself was hiding in the Islamic Republic. Nobody knew exactly where bin Laden had found refuge, but it would be entirely in character for the Shi'ite tyrants in Tehran to hide him. Their faith revolves around a "vanished imam" and they would understand that bin Laden might become even more powerful if he, too, vanished. The Iranians were adept at creating myths; they would relish turning bin Laden into a legendary figure. "Vanishing" bin Laden inside Iran would be easy, since, in addition to the normal hiding places in a country of seventy million people, there was a vast covert facility: the Chinese and North Koreans had dug an elaborate network of tunnels just north of Tehran, where weapons, ammunition, laboratories, and guests requiring total privacy could be secreted. Bin Laden was used to living in caves and tunnels, after all.

In all probability, the working relationship between Al Qaeda and Iran was forged in Afghanistan in the Afghan war against the Soviet Union and continued uninterrupted throughout the nineties. There were certainly many contacts during Osama's Sudan years, and while his move to Afghanistan and his intimate relationship with the Taliban (an enemy of Iran) undoubtedly caused problems, the link was never broken. Indeed, people in a position to know claim that shortly after September 11, bin Laden sent a video casette to Tehran, thanking the Iranian leaders for the precious assistance.'



Ledeen wrote that back in September 2002 and looking back, it seems that he seems to have been proven all too correct. Based on what we know today:

Over 384 al-Qaeda operatives, including 18 senior leaders (if not bin Laden himself, certainly his top lieutenants), are holed up at Chalous and Lavizan. And guess who helps to staff Chalous? Russian, Chinese, and North Korean scientists.

According to the 9/11 commission report among other sources, bin Laden would have had good reason to thank Iran with respect to the 9/11 attacks. Others, such as Iranian defector Hamid Reza Zakiri, go even further to recount that bin Laden sent more than just a video to the Iranian leadership - he sent his son Saad, as well as his several of his wives and other children.
Now I know that conventional wisdom has bin Laden and al-Zawahiri as being in the Pakistani tribal areas (where there have been repeated sitings of both men), but consider this - when Pakistani forces launched a major offensive against al-Qaeda and its Pashtun tribal allies in April 2004, they were quite certain that they had Ayman al-Zawahiri cornered and were going to deliver a major prize to Musharraf's American backers. In the end, they ended up killing the man they believed to be al-Zawahiri who was being protected by hundreds fighters ... only for them to learn that it was none other than an Uzbek named Thuraya who was apparently serving as al-Zawahiri's body double. Who's to say that the "Osama" that any number of US and Pakistani detainees claim to have seen isn't just another such double? Their presence in the tribal areas would serve to keep US, Afghan, and Pakistani forces hunting in the tribal areas, all the while the real bin Laden was hundreds of miles away. I can't help but notice that since Thuraya was bagged, there has been a sizeable drop in the number of reputed al-Zawahiri sightings in the territories.

Heck, it'd be a pretty good plan if I was an international fugitive ...


-snip-
What I know ...

For whatever it's worth, here my own private collection of the reports on bin Laden's movements and activities since November 10, 2001. All of this should be subject to change, as my most recent information on any of this dates to August 2004:

Swore to defeat the United States in a speech delivered to 1,000 Afghan tribal leaders at the Islamic Studies Center in Jalalabad on November 10, 2001.
Left Jalalabad for Tora Bora on November 23 in a convoy of over 100 trucks and armored cars.
Family was entrusted to Saif al-Adel in December 2001 and handed over to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps for their protection.
Believed to have escaped from Tora Bora on December 12, 2001 during a 24 hour cease-fire between al-Qaeda fighters and US-backed militia forces.
Captured bin Laden bodyguard chief Abdullah Tabarak has told US interrogators that he played pre-recorded cassette tapes over bin Laden's satellite phone after December 12 to convince US intelligence that bin Laden was still at Tora Bora in a ruse that succeeded until December 16, when the stronghold fell to US, British, and Afghan forces.
Believed to have fled to Peshawar immediately following Tora Bora and taken refuge with members of Fazlur Rahman's Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Islam party. May have undergone plastic surgery in early January 2002.
Received medical treatment from long-time physician Dr. Ahmed Khawaja in the Bajaur area of Pakistan under the protection of the Ghilzai tribesmen following Tora Bora. According to Khawaja's interrogation by Pakistani authorities, the long-standing rumors of bin Laden having kidney problems were a ruse deliberately concocted by the terrorist leader in order to have his enemies believe him to be largely immobile and dependent on frequent access to medical aid.
Intercepted communications from eastern Iran recorded conversations between bin Laden in Peshawar and senior al-Qaeda leaders in Iranian Baluchistan in January 2002. Confirmed by both US and Indian intelligence officials. These communications came to an end after they were reported by American and international media outlets.
Wrote a letter to Abu Zubaydah in Faisalabad in early 2002 investing him as the operational commander of al-Qaeda and urging him to continue the war against the US and its allies even if bin Laden and al-Zawahiri were killed.
Despite multiple reports placing him in Chechnya, Azad Kashmir, Shah-e-Khot, Jalalabad, and Karachi no confirmed sightings of bin Laden have been made since December 2001, leading a few in Western intelligence agencies to conclude that he died at Tora Bora.
"Recent" video footage released by al-Qaeda media organizations since 2001 is likewise regarded as inconclusive by most Western intelligence agencies.
In July 2002, bin Laden's eldest son Saad was formally invested as his father's heir apparent by Saif al-Adel and Mahfouz Ould Walid in Iran.
Arab media reports in August 2002 claimed that bin Laden had resumed active command and control of al-Qaeda, which would be consistent with the worldwide terror offensive launched by the network in two successive waves from September 2002 to January 2003 in its attempt to deter the US and its allies from attacking Iraq.
Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri are believed to have traveled to the Pakistani border towns of Dir and Shah Salim in August 2002 to solidify their new alliance with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami party. By this point, the towns of both Shah Salim and Murkushi had been operating as bonafide al-Qaeda enclaves inside of Pakistan for at least several months.
During their time in Pakistan, bin Laden and al-Zawahiri relied on an extensive security network that was set up to include three concentric circles spread out over a diameter of roughly 120 miles. The first ring sent a warning to the second ring whenever Pakistani troops entered the Northwest Frontier Province, while a smaller ring some 12 miles in diameter provided advance warning if the first ring had been breached or compromised. At the center of the security rings were the two al-Qaeda leaders, their aides, and bin Laden’s 200-strong bodyguard contingent.
After Ramzi Binalshibh's arrest in September 2002, 5 passports intended for bin Laden's children were recovered from Binalshibh's residence in addition to the terrorist's address book.
The Saudi-owned magazine al-Majallah published bin Laden's purported will from December 2001 in an October 2002 issue. In it, he expresses frustration at his Taliban allies and calls for a full purge within the terror network of all suspected "collaborators."
On November 11, 2002 an audiotape from bin Laden broadcast on al-Jazeera claimed responsibility for terrorist attacks that had occurred over the last several months on 3 continents. Despite the Lausanne-based Dalle Molle Institute for Perceptual Artificial Intelligence's findings that the audiotape was a fake, the CIA and NSA nevertheless continue to affirm that is genuine, citing a far greater body of data from which to compare it to, including hundreds of satellite phone calls intercepted by the US and allied intelligence agencies from 1996-1998.
Sent 3 Saudi emissaries with an audiotaped message from him to GSPC leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar in Niger in December 2002.
Last met with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (and Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani?) in December 2002 in Pakistani Baluchistan. According to Mohammed, senior al-Qaeda leaders travel in and out of Iran and into Pakistan through the Ribat tribal region. Mohammed further named bin Laden's backers inside Pakistan as Mehmed Ahmed, Hamid Gul, and Javir Nasir and claimed that he received messages from the terrorist leader through members of Dawood Ibrahim's criminal organization.
Using information gathered from the Spider Group [a special team of former Pakistani military officers hunting for al-Qaeda leaders in the Pakistani tribal areas under FBI direction], Pakistani authorities were able to apprehend Dr. Javed Ahmed Khawaja and his extended family in Lahore in December 2002. A naturalized American citizen, Ahmed had several computers full of information on al-Qaeda activities in the Bajaur tribal region in his possession and is believed to have provided medical treatment to bin Laden following Tora Bora in addition to harboring Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Yasser al-Jaziri, Assadullah (the son of Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman), Abu Faraj al-Libi, and 7 members of bin Laden’s bodyguard in the immediate aftermath of the al-Qaeda retreat from Tora Bora. Khawaja's phone number in Bajaur was among those found in Abu Zubaydah’s phone directory after his capture.
Son Ali was married to a Yemeni bride in Jeddah in January 2003.
February 2003 audiotape denounces planned US-led invasion of Iraq, authorizes al-Qaeda cooperation with Iraqi Baathists.
Eldest son Saad met with Saif al-Adel and Abu Musab Zarqawi at a safe house in Iranian Baluchistan in February 2003 to discuss plans to expand the al-Qaeda network inside Iraq.
UK-based al-Ansar News Agency (ANA) claimed to possess a videotape of bin Laden in which he stated that he would die in an attack on the United States at some point in 2003. However, the tape has not been released and ANA has a very poor track record in this regard.
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed told US interrogators that he had last met with bin Laden in December 2002 somewhere in southwestern Pakistani Baluchistan between Chaman and the Iranian border.
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed stated that when in Pakistan, bin Laden relies on an extensive network of phone calls, runners, intermediaries, and human couriers provided by the Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Islam and Jamaat-e-Islami parties. Whenever he wishes to issue orders, he sends trusted human couriers to call an intermediary of one of his lieutenants to relay his orders.
Captured Taliban diplomat Nasser Ahmed Roohi claimed that bin Laden was in the Siakoh mountain range between the Afghan provinces of Nimroz and Helmand and Pakistani Baluchistan meeting with Taliban officials but that he left the area with his bodyguards as soon as he learned of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed's arrest.
After the capture of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the CIA suspected they had narrowed bin Laden and his entourage down to traveling in a huge Baluchi trading caravan moving between Pakistan and Iran. President Bush authorized Predator drones to launch a missile attack on the caravan if bin Laden was confirmed to be traveling in it. However, no such confirmation was forthcoming and the caravan crossed into Iran without incident.
Indian intelligence believes that former ISI chiefs Hamid Gul and Mehmud Ahmed are assisting bin Laden in escaping US and Pakistani efforts to arrest him.
Held a terrorist summit in Afghanistan in April 2003 to discuss the state of post-Baathist Iraq within the context of al-Qaeda's global jihad.
Summit attended by a mixture of al-Qaeda, Taliban, Chechen, and IMU members, as well as his trusted lieutenant Saif al-Adel. Al-Adel was designated al-Qaeda's new military commander in the wake of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed's arrest.
A Pakistani police raid on a Karachi al-Qaeda safe house in April 2003 resulted in the capture of Tawfiq Attash Khallad and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed’s nephew Ali Abd al-Aziz (Ammar al-Baluchi), who had linked up with Khallad following his uncle’s arrest. Khallad was in the process of recruiting over a dozen LeJ members to perpetrate suicide attacks on the US airbase at Shehbaz in Jacobad as well as a suicide aircraft attack on the US consulate in Karachi. Khallad was found in possession of handwritten letters from bin Laden who had been delivered to him by courier.
All 6 sons were formally stripped of Saudi citizenship on July 7, 2003.
Top al-Qaeda courier Adil al-Jaziri was arrested by Pakistani authorities and handed over to the US in July 2003. Al-Jaziri had previously served as a top media aide to bin Laden and was responsible for arranging audiotapes from the al-Qaeda leadership to be smuggled from Pakistan to Qatar or the UAE for public broadcast.
Bin Laden is known amongst the tribesmen of Afghanistan's Kunar province as loar sheikh or "big chief."
German intelligence learned in September 2003 that Iranian authorities were aware of regular contact between bin Laden and senior al-Qaeda leaders in Iran but had done nothing to stop it.
US intelligence believed it had narrowed down bin Laden's location to an area of roughly 40 miles in Waziristan between Angoor Ada and the administrative capital in Wana in September 2003 based on electrontic intercepts from the region.
On September 11, 2003, al-Jazeera aired what it purported to be a new videotape of bin Laden, al-Zawahiri, and Amin al-Haq walking through the mountains of Afghanistan. French counter-terrorism expert Roland Jacquard believes this to have been old footage shot sometime before December 26, 2001.
In an audiotape broadcast in October 2003, bin Laden sought to hold himself up as the only Arab leader capable of resisting the United States in the wake of the US-led war against Iraq. It also referenced a US budget figure released in July 2003.
A raw intelligence report by the ISAF in Afghanistan in October 2003 noted reports that bin Laden was living in Kunar province under the protection of the Guzer tribe.
Met with Taliban leaders during Ramadan 2003 to inform them that their monthly sum of $3,000,000 was being reduced to $1,500,000 to cover costs of supporting the jihad in Iraq.
A December 2003 audiotape from bin Laden referenced the capture of Saddam Hussein and denounced US and coalition efforts in Iraq as both neo-colonialism and the beginning of a new crusade.
Approved a major al-Qaeda attack in Rappahannock county, Virginia in late December 2003.
Multiple reports have claimed that bin Laden entered Iran with al-Zawahiri in July 2003 and have been replaced in Pakistan and Afghanistan with body doubles. These reports, one of which comes from a high-ranking member of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, state that he met with senior Iranian military commanders in the small town of Najmabad in Central district on October 23, 2003 and are regarded as credible by many in the US intelligence community.
The vast majority of this can be easily confirmed through open-source reporting by anybody who's interested. Heck, the majority of it can be confirmed just by using the Rantburg search engine. Suffice it to say that even some of this is true, the US has good reason to suspect that bin Laden is still at large and as long as that remains the case, he will remain a threat to the United States.'

[General Ludd]

This thread summarized

[Chemical Ollie]

Originally posted by lord of the mark



Are you addressing me or Imran?

As for myself, I dont have the slightest who OBL wants to win. Even if you assume that me makes a distinction between our two parties, it all gets lost in the back of forth of guessing the effect.

Its more likely that he released the video now for AQ's own reasons. From what i understand theres lots of code in these things - "bush should have seen the warning signs" could mean "cell B should strike, but cell A should await further communication"

I'm not adressing any particular debater, I'm just making an argument against anybody who claims "Terrorists want the Democracts to win".

As for Al Jazeera showing those videos, it makes sense whatever the hidden message in them might be. Western media rarely refuse to show speaches of Western leaders, good or bad.

Showing them is a double-edged sword, as it might give away the location of Osama, like it was when he had those famous rocks in the background.

[rah]

Hmmm, I'm only about 100 feet from the sears tower right now. I'd better head home.