Your Reactions to the First Debate

[Ned]

Flubber, Cooling of relations? Let's put it bluntly. The Canadian government has openly ridiculed the US president. And, this lack of fundamental diplomacy is the fault of the United States?

[SpencerH]

What was the issue that reduced Kerry's chances? His lack of credibility on issues of defense. Nothing (very little) he said during the debate has changed peoples minds on that issue (and with good reason).

The 'global test' comment will haunt him.

Kerry wont be elected.

Lieberman would have been a better opponent for Bush.

[Ramo]

For comparison regarding the above numbers:

More Favorable Opinion of Candidate After the Debate (putting the difference between each candidates' net increase in favorability in paranthesis)

2004
Bush Kerry
9/30 21 46 (Kerry +29)

2000
Bush Gore
10/17 31 29 (Bush +7)
10/11 40 24 (Bush +20)
10/3 34 27 (Bush +11)

1992
Clinton Bush Perot
10/19 27 29 63 (Clinton +1)
10/11 29 13 62 (Clinton +26)

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-30-debate-poll.htm

In other words, Kerry's performance in the debate was more effective than any of Clinton's performances in '92 or Bush's in 2000.

Further, 46.6 million people are estimated to have watched this debate.

This is a huge Kerry win.

[Ned]

Spencer, Bush did a very poor job of explaining why Kerry was a flip-flopper. Kerry may have erased that issue from the campaign with his performance.

[SpencerH]

Kerry won the debate but will lose the election (by a wide margin I think).

[SpencerH]

Originally posted by Ned
Spencer, Bush did a very poor job of explaining why Kerry was a flip-flopper. Kerry may have erased that issue from the campaign with his performance.

It would have been better for the outcome of the debate if Bush had been more communicative but the message about Kerry is "out there". IMO nothing else explains his poor approval ratings on defense issues and credibility (and defense is the issue that will decide this election).

[The diplomat]

Originally posted by SpencerH
Kerry won the debate but will lose the election (by a wide margin I think).

I agree.

Debates are fun but I doubt they really influence voters that much. People just don't really care who is the most intellectual or eloquent on a topic.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Kerry won the debate but will lose the election (by a wide margin I think).

Naturally, I slightly disagree. I think Kerry won the debate, but he will WIN the election on the momentum of his debate wins (Yes, I think he'll win the next two as well).

[Ming]

The debates may have a big impact on this election. While they won't change the minds of the "dedicated", the non decided vote will swing this election. Since most of them probably hate both candidates, something like the debates may be all it takes to move them to Kerry's side.

[DrGerry]

The newspapers in my country gives a victory to Kerry by far.

Anyway, do you call "debate" to that?

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by SpencerH
Kerry won the debate but will lose the election (by a wide margin I think).

Sadly, I agree with this too.

[Ramo]

Kerry beat Bush on his strength, foreign policy. It only makes sense that Kerry would do even better on domestic issues. Though, the effect wouldn't be as pronounced - it's hard to see him getting yet another a net 29 point favorability boost as in this debate. Also, Kerry probably has lost his edge in the expectations game.

[GePap]

Bush has some inherent strenghts in debating-no, not rhetorical skills, nor the ability to put together a logical arguement to its conclusion, ut the ability to seem genuine and likeable-a common man of conviction. A lot of voters prefer that to intelligence, as they distrust smarts.

Kerry used to be a prosecutor and is a skilled debater, but Americans no longer seem to have the patience for someone to build a case as a prosecutor- you have to give short quips, so this negates some of his advantage.

Everyone always underestimates Bush-and Bush plays off this image, so that when he is not utterly crushed, he can claim victory, or at least a draw.

I do think thought the pundits right now are givin Bush's prefromance a better raiting than the public is.

[DrGerry]

Agree with Ramo.

For SpencerH, Kontiki and the others who think that, in Argentina the former president has a 75% of the votes against him in the polls, but the same people says "he will won instead". Well, he lost (and this was tooooo good for Argentina).

[Flubber]

The gallup stuff is pretty interesting . . .

Kerry wins the debate but not by enough to change most people's views on the who's better issue.

On the economy I wonder will Bush keep his message as simplistic. I just have visions of Bush saying 50 times " my opponent will raise taxes, I won't"