Attackers seize Russian school

[lightblue]

Re: How about this plan?

Originally posted by pchang
1) Over fly the place with helicopters constantly so they get used to the sound.
2) Station as many visible shooters around the school as possible to convince the terrorists to place as many kids as possible in front of windows and doors.
3) Have helicopters drop concrete barriers (like the ones we use on highway dividers) through the roof of the school about 2 meters behind the windows and doors. Hopefully, these barriers will drop between the terrorists and the kids and shield the kids from the ensuing explosions.
4) Have helicopters drop some big "flash bang" bombs into the iterior sections of the school at the same time.
5) Charge the school/drop commandos in from the helicopters immediately after the "flash bangs" go off.

Yeah sure. At a guess that would result in at least 50% and probably more like 75% of the hostages dying. There is not much the Russians can do i think. A school is far more ventilated by non circulated air than the theatre so the gas option is far less likely to be used succesfully.

I think what will happen is similar to what happened in the hospital sieges. In return for the release of a vast majority of the hostages the hostage takers will be granted safe passage back to Chechnya. They will human shields to protect them during the way back, and these hostages are probably likely to die, but if there are 17 hostage takers (or however many there are) they won't be able to control much more than 50 people. So the fatality rate will be more like 20%.

Then Putin can launch some retaliatory attacks on the hostage takers vilalges/towns. Doubt anyone would stop him.

[lord of the mark]

from RIA Novosti:

Below, the general director of the National Anti-Criminal and Anti-Terrorist Foundation, Oleg Nechiporenko, comments on these tragic events:
"In essence, this confirms what we have long been telling the world: the separatists in the Caucasus, in particular, the Chechen Republic, maintain links with international terrorists. According to the Regional Headquarters for the Counter-Terrorist Operation in the North Caucasus, bandit groups led by Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev include foreign mercenaries who fought in Osama bin Laden's units in Afghanistan.

"According to notes found on the body of the warlord Oybek 'Uzbek' Rakhimov, his own band, which was subordinated to Maskhadov, at one point included the Egyptians Mohammed Islambuli and Mustafa Hamza. They were both from the inner circle of Ayman al-Zawahiri, an aide to Osama bin Laden and an al-Qaeda leader. Uzbek had been in charge of distributing money among the militants, and Islambuli and Hamza's financial accounts were found on him among other documents. This means that Chechen fighters are also sponsored by international Islamic extremist organisations.

"According to an authoritative anti-terrorism expert and the director of London's Al- Makrizi Islamic centre, Akhmed Al-Subaimi, the Islambuli Brigades, the group that has claimed responsibility for the crashes of the Tu-134 and Tu-154 airliners and for the explosion outside Rizhskaya metro station in Moscow, is apparently a Chechen militant organisation with links to al-Qaeda. The group's name emerged after an assassination attempt on Shaukat Aziz, a candidate for the post of Pakistan's prime minister.

"The terrorists took the name for their organization from Haled Islambuli, a lieutenant in the Egyptian army who organised the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat on October 6, 1981. He and his accomplices were convicted by an Egyptian court and executed.

"Various extremist organisations - in Chechnya, the Balkans and Southeast Asia - have taken on the name Islambuli. They often changed their names to throw security services off their trail. Some experts say that Haled's brother Mohammed is in charge of the Islambuli Brigades.

"Following the arrest and execution of Islambuli and his fellow conspirators, Egypt adopted Law No. 162 on the state of emergency in the country, which remains in force to this day. It has enabled the state to arrest and convict hundreds of extremists and ban various illegal religious organisations. The country's experience has proved that such measures are effective: Egypt has not fallen victim to any major terrorist attacks in the past seven years."

[Velociryx]

I think when it comes right down to it, it's gonna have to play out very similarly to what you describe, yes.

Psyops should start now, if it's not already, making noise, keeping them awake, flying low overhead...the works.

Full treatment.

And then wait.

Maybe they're real zealots and will go ahead and push the button. Doubt it, but maybe.

If they don't, then after a time, demands will start coming out. Those demands can be used to negotiate at least a partial release, and when it becomes obvious that they've given as much as they're gonna....game time.

-=Vel=-
EDIT: And no terrorist makes it out alive. These, we can ship back to their enlightened leaders in small boxes.

[Solver]

Ahh yes these two hospital incidents. Russian performance was pretty poor there. Terrorists retreated themselves eventually, and the casualties were high.

[Solver]

If they don't, then after a time, demands will start coming out. Those demands can be used to negotiate at least a partial release, and when it becomes obvious that they've given as much as they're gonna....game time.

In this case, luckily at least some demands can be satisfied.


Out of curiosity, would you support a deal where they release all hostages, and are granted safe transport to whereever they want?

[Velociryx]

I would, but I'd also hire some thugs to make sure they never arrived. That way, it's not the army that did them, and I could deny official responsibility...

-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

To clarify that position: At this point, if I was in charge, then in my mind, they're already dead...it is just a question of how many kids can be saved before I ended them.

That's about the extent of my negotiation interests. Save as many kids as possible, and send an unmistakable message to their "enlightened and civilized" leaders.

-=Vel=-

[Solver]

Ahh but that's a hard one. If you release them and promise safe transport, I'd say you need to do it really. Letting them go only to shoot them will make matters worse in the future.

What amazed me... reports say that this group of men, 15-20 people, was running to the school with automatic rifles, grenade launchers and other weaponry. How the hell could they get so far with such weapons? Damn it...

[lightblue]

Ah, but if this becomes general practise, what is to stop hostage takers from just killing all their hostages (though they wouldn't really be hostages then i guess).

[Velociryx]

I disagree, S-man.

They kidnapped a bunch of kids. You don't GET more wormlike than that. These guys aren't dealing honestly and fairly, and can't very well cry foul if somebody double-crosses them. Maybe they'll think a bit harder next time, when none of their boys makes it home.

-=Vel=-

[chequita guevara]

Kidnappng adults is one thing. Kidnapping children is another.

[pchang]

Terrorist Leaders

Do not care about the life of their foot soldiers. They have done everything in their power to convince their own foot soldiers that they are expendable so they will go on suicide missions like this (and suicide bombers).

One has to be able to identify what terrorist leaders do care about. Go directly against their friends and family, and I believe you will see some positive results. Those that harbor them will no longer do so and may even hand them over.

[lightblue]

I don't think they expect any of their guys to make it home. Remember these are people that routinely use suicide bombers. This whole "martyr-in-paradise" stuff means they don't mind dying.

And because Islam is a decentralised religion, even if one iman says that suicide bombers will not go to paradise but will rot in hell, another wanting to push his agenda will give his blessings to them.

There's jsut not much you can threaten delusional religious people with if they fixed on the idea that they will be rewarded for eternity.

[Velociryx]

The point is tho, it doesn't matter what they believe.

If they aren't total zealots, then they won't wanna die, and they'll deal...if they are zealots, then they're gonna die anyway, and we'll get as many kids out of their hands before they do.

Maybe their leaders won't flinch at the loss, and maybe they will, but one things sure, THOSE particular guys won't be kidnapping any more kids.

-=Vel=-

[Ned]

Given what happened at the Theater last year, I would be very surprised if they do not have gas masks. However, if they do not, that still seems to be the best option.

It is interesting, if you recall, that even as the gas was overtaking them, the women terrorists did not detonate themselves. Interesting.

For the future, we ought to offer our support of Russia in any way we can.