John Kerry: Unfit For Command

[Elok]

Crap, Ned's posted. Guess the thread's already dead. Still, I might as well make the point I came for:

I don't have the spare time to forage through fifteen pages just now, but has anybody pointed out that nobody, even John Kerry, has a credibility problem compared to GWB? By all indications, it's his personality or lack thereof that's killing him in the polls, not accusations that he leapt to popularity on the backs of dead soldiers. Bush could just as easily be accused of that anyway...and those veterans will be hard-pressed to associate Kerry with something worse than Lynndie England giving a big old country-gal grin for the camera with a leashed naked guy.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat

The refinery capacity shortage is real and persistent, but it's been with us a long time. Nobody really wants to invest a billion or two in creating overcapacity.

That was the assessment back 10 years ago as well.

Interesting 95%+ capacity utilization and pretty much been in that range for years. Let's hope no one has a major explosion, ehh?

[Ned]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
And we're in a situation where there's strong global overproduction, but high prices regardless.

I'm not so sure about this. The price has gone up recently after events in Iraq, Russia and Venezuala. The recall results in Venezuala calmed the markets a bit. I am sure we are not in a flooded oil market situation.

But the point remains. Saudi Arabia can really screw us if they wanted to.

The election of Kerry will make them want to.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Elok
Crap, Ned's posted. Guess the thread's already dead. Still, I might as well make the point I came for:

I don't have the spare time to forage through fifteen pages just now, but has anybody pointed out that nobody, even John Kerry, has a credibility problem compared to GWB? By all indications, it's his personality or lack thereof that's killing him in the polls, not accusations that he leapt to popularity on the backs of dead soldiers. Bush could just as easily be accused of that anyway...and those veterans will be hard-pressed to associate Kerry with something worse than Lynndie England giving a big old country-gal grin for the camera with a leashed naked guy.

The next time Kerry wraps himself in the flag of the Republic of Vietnam, I'm going to puke. However, I think he just may have to put his own Vietnam veterans to one side now else risk Bush raising the issue of the Swiftboat Vets.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
(a) The Saudis don't set the prices, global marketplaces do.

The Saudis have some pricing power.

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
(c) High oil prices only help the Saudis and other producers in the short term. In the long term, they make it more likely for US and other marginal producers to increase production, while encouraging both conservation and R&D for alternative sources.

Other producers have limited power, and alternative sources never seem to keep up with growing demand.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Ned
But the point remains. Saudi Arabia can really screw us if they wanted to.

They may very well believe that increasing production will not be in their best interest. There is a lot of doubt about the future of the world economy and the future demand for oil.

[Ned]

Bush has credibility problems on Iraq and not Kerry?

Really?

Listen to this. It is remarkable.

http://media1.streamtoyou.com/rnc/080304v1.wmv

[Agathon]

and it's not really likely that we're going to "win" in any event,

Are you calling it now?

[Ned]

One of the most remarkable things about Kerry was that he was actually calling for the use of ground troops to overthrow Saddam in 1998. He maintained that hawkish line until Dean got traction in 2003. Then he flipped.

Now he is trying to flop.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Agathon


Are you calling it now?

I put "win" in quotes to refer to Ned's version of winning, which involves them becoming USA USA USA chanting, stars-and-stripes waving, Bush-worshipping America lovers.

His version is a little different from mine.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Ned
One of the most remarkable things about Kerry was that he was actually calling for the use of ground troops to overthrow Saddam in 1998. He maintained that hawkish line until Dean got traction in 2003. Then he flipped.

Now he is trying to flop.

Either that, or perhaps the strategic and intelligence realities of 1998 are a bit different from those of 2003.

[Elok]

Oh, Bush's credibility problems aren't limited to Iraq. I don't believe a word Bush says on anything. Come to think of it, I don't think Bush believes a word Bush says on anything. He's the kind of guy who will fight to the end for his ideals, then figure out what exactly his ideals are later, when he has a spare moment.

Anyway, a column in today's Washington Post says MoveOn.org already pulled out the big guns in response. They have a commercial that quotes John McCain calling on Bush to condemn the Swift Boaters. McCain's War Hero muscle should counteract this nicely.

My computer doesn't have sound, Ned; what's your clip saying?

[Pekka]

flip or flop, we should be careful where we use that term. I was in favour of invading Iraq too. However, it seems now, that this administration is not giving the needed support in order to strengthen the presense, and make things happen. That said, I dont' think it's a good idea anymore. Not because I didn't think it couldn't be done, but because I don't think it can be done this particular way.

Call me flip flopper, I reserve the right to change my own opinion that reflects the my priorities, facts and how things are going at the moment. I wouldn't think it's flip flopping. I think it's worse to say one thing and do the other thing at the same time.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Ned


I'm not so sure about this. The price has gone up recently after events in Iraq, Russia and Venezuala. The recall results in Venezuala calmed the markets a bit. I am sure we are not in a flooded oil market situation.

We have reserves, domestic production and domestic consumption pretty much in line with last year's numbers, but prices over 20% higher. The issue with bad news is that it freaks out the yuppies in the NYMEX pits, so they drive the futures market nuts and that affects everyone else's positions between the spot market and the futures contract closings.

But the point remains. Saudi Arabia can really screw us if they wanted to.

The election of Kerry will make them want to.

Ah, so the Republican line will be to continue to kiss Saudi ass? **** 'em. If they get out of line, we'll invade them too, and grab 'em by their great big noses while we kick 'em in the ass and take their oil too.

Oil prices are global. The Saudis can't selectively screw us without screwing all their customers, so if push comes to shove and they try anything, nobody is going to let their economies tank.

[Kidlicious]

Oil isn't the only commodity in tight supply. The economy is out of ballance and many producers see it. No one is going to blame the Saudis. At least not enough to do anything about it. Anyway the weak dollar is at least as much to blame.