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**Ben Kenobi** · June 25, 2004, 22:43

St. Leo:

You have to consider the fact that the PCs have a different method of votecounting than the Alliance. Whereas the Alliance were more democratic, in one person getting a vote, the PCs had regional delegations.

**St Leo** · June 25, 2004, 23:10

Ah, good point.

**Flinx** · June 26, 2004, 00:44

Flinx's Election Guess: Quebec

Ahuntsic - Liberal (Bloc)
Alfred-Pellan - Liberal (Bloc)
Bourassa - Liberal
Hochelaga - Bloc
Honoré-Mercier - Liberal
Jeanne-Le Ber - Liberal (Bloc)
Lac-Saint-Louis - Liberal
La Pointe-de-l'Île - Bloc
LaSalle-Émard - Liberal
Laurier - Bloc
Laval - Bloc (Liberal)
Laval-Les Îles - Liberal (Bloc)
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin - Bloc
Mount Royal - Liberal
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine - Liberal
Outremont - Liberal (Bloc)
Papineau - Liberal
Pierrefonds-Dollard - Liberal
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie - Bloc
Saint-Laurent-Cartierville - Liberal
Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel - Liberal
Westmount-Ville-Marie - Liberal
Argenteuil-Mirabel - Bloc
Beauport - Bloc
Berthier-Maskinongé - Bloc
Charlesbourg - Bloc
Charlevoix-Montmorency - Bloc
Gatineau - Liberal
Hull-Aylmer - Liberal
Louis-Hébert - Bloc
Louis-Saint-Laurent - Bloc (Liberal)
Pontiac - Liberal
Portneuf - Bloc (Liberal)
Québec - Bloc
Repentigny - Bloc
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles - Bloc
Saint-Maurice-Champlain - Bloc (Liberal)
Terrebonne-Blainville - Bloc
Trois-Rivières - Bloc
Vaudreuil-Soulanges - Liberal (Bloc)
Beauce - Liberal
Beauharnois-Salaberry - Bloc (Liberal)
Brome-Missisquoi - Liberal (Conservative)
Brossard-La Prairie - Liberal
Chambly-Borduas - Bloc
Châteauguay-Saint-Constant - Bloc
Compton-Stanstead - Bloc (Liberal)
Drummond - Bloc
Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine - Liberal (Bloc)
Lévis-Bellechasse - Bloc (Liberal)
Longueuil - Bloc
Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière - Bloc
Matapédia-Matane - Bloc
Mégantic-L'Érable - Bloc (Liberal)
Richelieu - Bloc
Richmond-Arthabaska - Bloc
Rimouski-Témiscouata - Bloc
Rivière-du-Loup-Montmagny - Bloc
Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert - Bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot - Bloc
Saint-Jean - Bloc
Saint-Lambert - Bloc
Shefford - Bloc
Sherbrooke - Bloc
Verchères-Les Patriotes - Bloc
Abitibi-Témiscamingue - Bloc (Liberal)
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord - Liberal (Bloc)
Joliette - Bloc
Jonquière-Alma - Bloc
Laurentides-Labelle - Bloc
Manicouagan - Bloc
Montcalm - Bloc
Nunavik-Eeyou - Liberal (Bloc)
Rivière-du-Nord - Bloc
Roberval - Bloc

Bloc 49 (40-58)
Conservative 0 (0-1)
Geen 0 (0-0)
Liberal 26 (16-35)
NDP 0 (0-0)

**Ben Kenobi** · June 26, 2004, 00:48

Skeena-Bulkley Valley - NDP (Conservative)

Not with the riding redistribution.

PG/ Bulkley Valley, my old riding had a 3,000 vote margin for the Alliance, and Bulkley Valley is Alliance territory.

No way the NDP or the Liberals win anything outside of Victoria, or the Lower Mainland.

**Flinx** · June 26, 2004, 00:58

Flinx's Election Guess: Ontario

I Expect to be wrong on many of these!

Beaches-East York - Liberal (NDP)
Davenport - Liberal (NDP)
Don Valley East - Conservative (Liberal)
Don Valley West - Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence - Liberal
Etobicoke Centre - Conservative (Liberal)
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - Conservative (Liberal)
Etobicoke North - Liberal
Parkdale-High Park - Liberal (NDP)
St.Paul's - Liberal
Scarborough-Agincourt - Liberal
Scarborough Centre - Liberal
Scarborough-Guildwood - Liberal
Scarborough-Rouge River - Liberal
Scarborough Southwest - Conservative (NDP)
Toronto Centre - Liberal (NDP)
Toronto-Danforth - NDP (Liberal)
Trinity-Spadina - NDP
Willowdale - Liberal (Conservative)
York Centre - Liberal
York South-Weston - Liberal
York West - Liberal
Ajax-Pickering - Conservative (Liberal)
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale - Conservative (NDP)
Bramalea-Gore-Malton - Conservative (Liberal)
Brampton-Springdale - Conservative (Liberal)
Brampton West - Conservative
Burlington - Conservative
Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge - Conservative
Dufferin-Caledon - Conservative (Liberal)
Halton - Conservative (Liberal)
Hamilton Centre - NDP (Liberal)
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - Conservative (NDP)
Hamilton Mountain - NDP (Liberal)
Markham-Unionville - Liberal (Conservative)
Mississauga-Brampton South - Liberal (Conservative)
Mississauga East-Cooksville - Liberal
Mississauga-Erindale - Liberal (Conservative)
Mississauga South - Conservative (Liberal)
Mississauga-Streetsville - Conservative (Liberal)
Newmarket-Aurora - Conservative
Niagara Falls - Conservative (Liberal)
Niagara West-Glanbrook - Conservative
Oak Ridges-Markham - Conservative (Liberal)
Oakville - Liberal (Conservative)
Oshawa - Liberal (NDP)
Pickering-Scarborough East - Liberal
Richmond Hill - Liberal (Conservative)
St.Catharines - Conservative (Liberal)
Thornhill - Liberal (Conservative)
Vaughan - Liberal (Conservative)
Welland - Liberal (Conservative)
Whitby-Oshawa - Conservative (Liberal)
York-Simcoe - Conservative
Carleton-Lanark - Conservative
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - Liberal
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - Conservative
Kingston and the Islands - Liberal
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington - Conservative
Leeds-Grenville - Conservative
Nepean-Carleton - Conservative (Liberal)
Northumberland-Quinte West - Conservative (Liberal)
Ottawa Centre - NDP (Liberal)
Ottawa-Orléans - Conservative (Liberal)
Ottawa South - Conservative (Liberal)
Ottawa-Vanier - Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean - Conservative (Liberal)
Peterborough - Liberal (Conservative)
Prince Edward-Hastings - Conservative (Liberal)
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Conservative (Liberal)
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - Liberal (Conservative)
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing - Liberal
Kenora - Liberal (NDP)
Nickel Belt - Liberal (NDP)
Nipissing-Timiskaming - Liberal
Parry Sound-Muskoka - Conservative (Liberal)
Sault Ste.Marie - NDP (Liberal)
Sudbury - Liberal (NDP)
Thunder Bay-Rainy River - NDP (Conservative)
Thunder Bay-Superior North - Liberal
Timmins-James Bay - Liberal (NDP)
Cambridge - Conservative (Liberal)
Chatham-Kent-Essex - Liberal (Conservative)
Elgin-Middlesex-London - Conservative (Liberal)
Essex - Conservative (Liberal)
Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound - Conservative (Liberal)
Guelph - Liberal
Haldimand-Norfolk - Conservative (Liberal)
Brant - Liberal (Conservative)
Huron-Bruce - Conservative (Liberal)
Kitchener Centre - Liberal
Kitchener-Conestoga - Conservative (Liberal)
Kitchener-Waterloo - Liberal
London-Fanshawe - Liberal
London North Centre - Liberal (Conservative)
London West - Liberal (Conservative)
Middlesex-Kent-Lambton - Liberal (Conservative)
Oxford - Conservative
Perth-Wellington - Conservative
Sarnia-Lambton - Liberal (Conservative)
Barrie - Conservative (Liberal)
Simcoe North - Liberal (Conservative)
Simcoe-Grey - Conservative (Liberal)
Wellington-Halton Hills - Conservative (Liberal)
Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP (Liberal)
Windsor West - NDP (Liberal)

Conservative 47 (13-67)
Geen 0 (0-0)
Independent 0 (0-0)
Liberal 50 (22-89)
NDP 9 (3-21)

**Flinx** · June 26, 2004, 01:11

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Not with the riding redistribution.
PG/ Bulkley Valley, my old riding had a 3,000 vote margin for the Alliance, and Bulkley Valley is Alliance territory.
No way the NDP or the Liberals win anything outside of Victoria, or the Lower Mainland.

This may be a traditional conservative riding, but indications are that there is a close three-way race in this riding. I admit it could go Conservative, but I am guessing on an NDP breakthrough.

**Ben Kenobi** · June 26, 2004, 01:37

Yeah, the folks in Rupert are more NDP than in other places, but Bulkley valley has plenty of Alliance folks. That's what I'm wondering is how the redistribution will dilute the NDP support.

A three way race would be very curious. The people up north have no reason to vote Liberal.

Same with the liberals in Edmonton. Very likely for both to lose, since they redistributed the boundaries to reflect population changes.

**notyoueither** · June 26, 2004, 03:26

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
St. Leo:

You have to consider the fact that the PCs have a different method of votecounting than the Alliance. Whereas the Alliance were more democratic, in one person getting a vote, the PCs had regional delegations.

... but, isn't that exactly what the West is on about with Senate reform? One person equals one vote and no rigging for regions is not representative of the nation?

Are you a closet Central Canadian?

**notyoueither** · June 26, 2004, 03:28

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Yeah, the folks in Rupert are more NDP than in other places, but Bulkley valley has plenty of Alliance folks. That's what I'm wondering is how the redistribution will dilute the NDP support.

A three way race would be very curious. The people up north have no reason to vote Liberal.

Same with the liberals in Edmonton. Very likely for both to lose, since they redistributed the boundaries to reflect population changes.

Actually, Landslide Annie should be in friendlier country, with more of the centre of the city in her new chosen riding. The fact she won in the West End three times running is the surprise.

**notyoueither** · June 26, 2004, 03:32

I'm not going to do a seat count of any sort.

I will simply let it stand that I have a sneaking suspicion that the Conservatives will out pace the Liberals by at least 20 seats. I will not be surprised to see a majority either. Things are just way too up in the air, and things are that close in Ontario. Advanced polls being up 90% there can't bode well for any governing party.

**Tingkai** · June 26, 2004, 04:43

I'm glad I'm not a conservative because you guys have some difficult choices to make.

If the Conservatives win the most seats, but not a majority then they will probably make an alliance with the BQ. So a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the BQ. Do you want the Seperatists as part of the government?

Then there's the Conservative fiscal policy. Harper is obviously not a fiscal conservative. He wants bigger government, not smaller government. His government will interfere more in people's lives.

Right wing voters definitely have some hard decisions to make.

**Tingkai** · June 26, 2004, 05:10

Originally posted by notyoueither

Actually, Landslide Annie should be in friendlier country, with more of the centre of the city in her new chosen riding. The fact she won in the West End three times running is the surprise.

A poll of 255 people in her riding suggests she will lose.

"The poll included 255 interviews with Edmonton Centre voters and showed the Liberals are badly trailing in support behind the Conservatives, with 29.5 per cent compared to the Conservatives' 46.1 per cent. The Conservative candidate is Laurie Hawn. "

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1088201411910&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154

**joncha** · June 26, 2004, 05:15

I didn't see a margin of error for those polls, but with a sample size like that, it's got to be pretty big.

**Tingkai** · June 26, 2004, 05:17

true

**Flinx** · June 26, 2004, 12:32

Originally posted by notyoueither
I'm not going to do a seat count of any sort.

I will simply let it stand that I have a sneaking suspicion that the Conservatives will out pace the Liberals by at least 20 seats. I will not be surprised to see a majority either. Things are just way too up in the air, and things are that close in Ontario. Advanced polls being up 90% there can't bode well for any governing party.

A majority for the Conservatives would require them to win around 90 of the 106 ridings in Ontario. All the recent polls indicate the Liberals are in the lead in Ontario and take about 50 of the ridings.

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