Canadian Election Tread (part deux)

[Agathon]

So I bought the Toronto Sun this morning. Really funny stuff too. Yet again they spend most of the paper lambasting the stupidity of Canadians for rejecting the Conservatives again.

And while flipping channels this morning I saw the religious people on CTS sitting around with sour faces complaining about the Liberals' tolerance of lhomosexuals.

Oh what a beautiful morning....

[Drogue]

Shouldn't another one of these be started, since it's at 585 posts?

[Flubber]

I love it. The likely Liberal-NDP alliance has 154 seats EXACTLY

The bloc and tories and the independent ( a conservative who lost the nominantion IIRC) have 154 seats EXACTLY.

I forsee a government sputtering along with a more leftist agenda if they try to make a deal with the NDP.

The other option for the Liberals is to try to be a centrist government and build a coalition issue by issue. Perhaps they get the conservatives onside when they do something Harper likes and then ignore them and get the bloc and NDP onside on another issue ( like marriage for homosexuals). I just don't know if folks will put aside their differences and vote on the issues or if the old ways of the opposition voting against most things simply because they are in the opposition will prevail.

As for the Speaker, isn't it now the practice to elect one by a "free vote" in the house. Perhaps nominees will start declining?? Regardless who the speaker is, the government will be fragile if someone wants to bring it down. Members get sick or die or even simply travel. Even if there is an opposition speaker and they have the support of the NDP, a single ill member makes them vulnerable to non-confidence motions.

I would think the LIberals are safe for the next 12 months though as no one would want to be seen as the party FORCING a new election ( and where there is no reason to suspect very much if anything would change)

[General Ludd]

Originally posted by Flubber


I love it. The likely Liberal-NDP alliance has 154 seats EXACTLY

The bloc and tories and the independent ( a conservative who lost the nominantion IIRC) have 154 seats EXACTLY.

And yet, policy wise, aren't the liberals and conservatives rather close, while the ndp and bloc are quite far from both of them and more similiar to each other?

I find it very strange the way the parties are alligned (and percieved) in this country...

[Flubber]

Originally posted by General Ludd



And yet, policy wise, aren't the liberals and conservatives rather close, while the ndp and bloc are quite far from both of them and more similiar to each other?

I find it very strange the way the parties are alligned (and percieved) in this country...

I believe the bloc on average would be a bit left of the Liberals but not as far left as the NDP BUT the bloc probably is the most diverse ideologically due to the joining of separatists in a single party.

As for the conservatives, the old PC party was hard to distinguish form the Liberals on ideology but the "new Conservatives" are a good step to the right. Even with that step, they are probably closer to Martin's own policies but it has always appeare to me that Martin was a bit to the right within the Liberal party

The reason I see the Liberal NDP alliance as likely is that the NDP have nothing to lose from such an alliance and much to gain. The NDP has ZERO chance of forming a federal government in the forseeable future so this is a dream scenario for them to influence policy.

The Conservatives see themselves as an option to govern and while they might work with the Liberals on some issues ( and might have no choice on some issues or be branded as hypocrits), I would see that as an uneasy partnership.

As for working with the bloc, you can do it on some issues but any sign of a partnership might be political dynamite. After all, is it not still official bloc policy to seek separation. The ironic thing is that I would bet that very few of their gains had ANYTHING to do with separation

[SpencerH]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Indeed. This is great!

Rick Mercer was saying he wanted a minority government because he's never seen one in his life. It would be kind of like seeing a rhinoceros, he said.

I don't think the country has ever seen one like this. No way in hell will the Conservatives support the Liberals for any significant period of time beyond five seconds or a policy convention after this election.

The question is, is Martin enough of a slut to accept Bloc support? I hope not. We really don't need to see the Liberals destroyed after just having got the Conservatives back.

I thought you were old enough to remember the economic disaster the last liberal minority government was. Two years of sucking up to the NDP after which the Libs won in a landslide.

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Flubber
As for the Speaker, isn't it now the practice to elect one by a "free vote" in the house. Perhaps nominees will start declining?? Regardless who the speaker is, the government will be fragile if someone wants to bring it down. Members get sick or die or even simply travel. Even if there is an opposition speaker and they have the support of the NDP, a single ill member makes them vulnerable to non-confidence motions.

The first thing they do when the House is recalled is have a free secret vote for the Speaker. All 308 names are automatically on the ballot and members have to specifically ask to be removed. Peter Milliken (Liberal) is actually likely to be Speaker again simply because it will be important to have a strong experienced Speaker. The opposition parties often vote in favour of government legislation and it is unlikely that the liberals could not cobble together a majority on any given issue. Money bills are the only issues that are required to be a vote of confidence. Until the polls indicate that the population has shifted significantly expect all of the parties to keep the government in place while trying to convince the public to shift to their side. A final point is that governments can actually do a lot without the need for legislation. The outlook today, from my perspective, is that the next election will not be before late October 2005 and probably in early April 2006 after the Liberal’s second budget. That said, things obviously changed noticeably between last week and yesterday, so I am not going to wager any money on that bet.

What would cause a new election? If the Liberals think they could get a majority they will call an election. If the Conservatives think public opinion has shifted their way they will call for a no confidence vote, and if the NDP think they can pick-up more seats as well, they will support it.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Speaker gets to cast the deciding vote if he needs to.

But it has to be tied. 154 Conservative, Bloc and Ind to 153 Liberal and NDP if a Liberal takes the Speakers chair.

Originally posted by SpencerH

I thought you were old enough to remember the economic disaster the last liberal minority government was. Two years of sucking up to the NDP after which the Libs won in a landslide.

That was Trudeau, and we didn't get much better from him when he had majorities.

The times are different, and defecits are a nasty word even to the NDP.

[Richelieu]

I don't know how anyone can think that the bloc would naturally ally with the conservatives. They're more to the left than the Liberals.

On certain topics, they would vote along with the conservatives ( i.e. transfer of more powers to the provinces) but i am guessing that while all the bloc MP's would be in favor of it, some of the conservatives might not.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Tingkai
From the Washington Post website
Canadians Oust Ruling Party
Liberals lose Parliament, but likely to retain power in minority government.

Great job on that interpretation guys....

[St Leo]

The reason I see the Liberal NDP alliance as likely is that the NDP have nothing to lose from such an alliance and much to gain. The NDP has ZERO chance of forming a federal government in the forseeable future so this is a dream scenario for them to influence policy.

I will be seriously pissed at the NDP if they join a formal coalition without the Liberals granting a national referendum on Proportional Representation.

[KrazyHorse]

To get Prop Rep passed they need the acceptance of every provincial government in addition to a majority in every province.

[KrazyHorse]

In other words, it ain't going to happen.

[Tingkai]

First step for the Libs is to form a gov't and then pass a motion of confidence. That won't be a problem because no party will want to go to an election right away.

After that, it will be an unofficial Lib-NDP-BQ

The Conservatives have no clout because of their free vote policy. There's no way for Harper to guarantee that he can deliver the votes. If he tries to whip his MPs into line, they can always scream hypocrite and sit as an independent.

[KrazyHorse]

Bloc won't vote against Liberal-NDP budgets unless they have big military spending increases.