Canadian Election Tread (part deux)

[joncha]

Continued from here.

[Ben Kenobi]

Not too shabby.

I wonder how many of these we will fill before the election finishes.

[notyoueither]

The hot topic at the moment seems to be seat counts in Ontario and Quebec.

I admit I have not bothered to look in detail at ridings and historical votes, but I think things in Ontario and Quebec are more volatile and less likely to be accurately predicted than many might believe.

[Kuciwalker]

When is the election?

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


The conservatives win in that situation, since they might stand at 15% or so.

Oddly, the Conservatives stand higher in some of the Bloq seats than the ones controlled by the Liberals.

Are you looking at premerger vote total for the PCs?

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Kucinich
When is the election?

June 28.

[Ben Kenobi]

This is a table...

Top 11 NDP seats last election.

Conservatives and Alliance voters cluster together to show the new status.

LIB / BQ / NDP / OTHER / CON

1. Outremont [QC] 47.7% 28.3% 5.6% 7.1% 11.3%
2. Westmount - Ville-Marie [QC] 60.3% 10.7% 5.2% 7.5% 16.4%
3. Laurier - Sainte-Marie [QC] 25.7% 52.8% 4.8% 10.4% 6.4%
4. Notre-Dame-de-Grace - Lachine [QC] 60.6% 18.1% 4.7% 4.9% 11.7%
5. Papineau - Saint-Denis [QC] 53.5% 27.1% 4.5% 7.3% 7.5%
6. Jonquiere [QC] 35.8% 50.1% 3.5% 10.6%
7. Hull - Aylmer [QC] 51.3% 23.1% 3.5% 4.1% 18.0%
8. Gatineau [QC] 51.2% 25.6% 3.5% 2.5% 17.2%
9. Quebec [QC] 35.1% 43.7% 3.3% 4.2% 13.7%
10. Rosemont - Petite-Patrie [QC] 33.4% 49.1% 3.0% 7.0% 7.5%
11. Matapedia - Matane [QC] 45.8% 46.6% 3.0% 4.6%

[notyoueither]

Did the NDP outpoll the CA in all those ridings last time?

[Ben Kenobi]

Now, splitting the Liberal vote 60-40 between the Liberals (60) and the NDP (40)

This is the picture for the top ten seats. Outrement is #11.

1. Mount Royal [QC] 48.7% 4.3% 35.0% 2.3% 9.7%
2. Lac-Saint-Louis [QC] 44.5% 6.6% 32.2% 2.0% 14.7%
3. Saint-Laurent - Cartierville [QC] 44.2% 13.0% 31.8% 1.5% 9.5%
4. Saint-Leonard - Saint-Michel [QC] 46.0% 14.4% 31.8% 1.7% 6.1%
5. Pierrefonds - Dollard [QC] 43.5% 10.9% 31.0% 2.1% 12.4%
6. Westmount - Ville-Marie [QC] 36.2% 10.7% 29.3% 7.5% 16.4%
7. Notre-Dame-de-Grace - Lachine [QC] 36.3% 18.1% 29.0% 4.9% 11.7%
8. LaSalle - Emard [QC] 39.5% 24.2% 28.0% 2.3% 6.0%
9. Bourassa [QC] 37.2% 28.2% 26.6% 1.1% 6.7%
10. Papineau - Saint-Denis [QC] 32.1% 27.1% 26.0% 7.3% 7.5%


Even with a 40% shift in Liberal voters to the NDP, the NDP do not win a single seat in Quebec.

[Ben Kenobi]

NYE:

No.

NDP / CA

1. Outremont [QC] 5.6% 3.2%
2. Westmount - Ville-Marie [QC] 5.2% 4.4%
3. Laurier - Sainte-Marie [QC] 4.8% 2.2%
4. Notre-Dame-de-Grace - Lachine [QC] 4.7% 4.3%
5. Papineau - Saint-Denis [QC] 4.5% 4.7%
6. Jonquiere [QC] 3.5% 10.6%
7. Hull - Aylmer [QC] 3.5% 8.4%
8. Gatineau [QC] 3.5% 10.1%
9. Quebec [QC] 3.3% 7.6%
10. Rosemont - Petite-Patrie [QC] 3.0% 2.9%

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Now, splitting the Liberal vote 60-40 between the Liberals (60) and the NDP (40)

That's not going to happen. Just telling you.

Especially not in Westmount and Outremont, the two richest ridings in all of Quebec. The NDP vote there is rich, educated kids voting against their parents.

[KrazyHorse]

4. Notre-Dame-de-Grace - Lachine [QC] 4.7% 4.3%

This is probably the only one which would ever have a shot of going to the good guys.

[KrazyHorse]

NDG and Lachine are working-class anglo (with a significant French minority) boroughs. They'll probably stick Liberal this time though.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
About 10 seats which are majority federalist might be affected. It happened in 1993. 20 seats or so have so little Bloc support that to ask for them to go BQ is silly.

The problem with this scenario is that the new Conservatives have really not done anything to endear themselves to French Canadians. This is the demographic that's important in aforementioned weakly federalist ridings.

For Ben also.

Well, I think that a couple of things might be important. One, the level of the PO factor. How many life long Liberals simply stay home.

Also, where do the former Tories park themselves? To me it seems the Liberals would have had a good chance at them, but the NDP have as much chance at them as the NCons now. We are talking about people trying to send a message.

What remains to be seen is how does Harper do there and do any of the Old guard of the Tories back him up.

My thinking goes that if Harper can beat the Reform/CA rap, and if he can do well in the French language debate, and a few other things break for him, then the Tories could do well.

Failing the resurgence of the Tories at this time (which I can't think as likely without a lot of good breaks) then what do the disaffected PC and po'd middle road and Liberals do? As Krazy says, they shouldn't go Bloc, so the only voting option left is NDP and Green. Voting Green isn't likely to send many messages. NDP might.

To give perspective. I am perceiving more volatility than in Campbell's crash. Not necessarily so many Liberals gone, but certainly a wider swing in some places than is being predicted by many.

[Ben Kenobi]

That's not going to happen. Just telling you.

Oh, I believe you.

I just think it's much more reasonable to have the separatists win 65 seats in Quebec.