Iraq, Shiite Armageddon, the Mahdi Army, chaos theory and the Hidden Imam

[Kropotkin]

Whatever happens with this shiite uprising is hard to tell already. What really should bother the coalition is the fact that now it doesn't seem like many of the areas outside the dreaded sunni triangle are safe. Prior to the developement of the latest week or so almost all serious trouble has been located in a relatively small area. The coalition has been able to concentrate their force in that area. Now, it's quite possible that the coalition have to be prepared for trouble almost everywhere, spreading their forces thin. This is especially the case if the new iraqi army and police can't be trusted to do the job for the coalition.

Just my two cents

[Alexander's Horse]

Originally posted by Giancarlo
We actually are giving them a chance to give up... Kut has been recaptured, and Fallujah will soon fall back to coalition hands. This is pretty much nearing the end of this little unpopular rebellion (hey, most shi'ias didn't want it, 90% didn't).

I think you must be one of the most naive people I have ever encountered.

It's all part of the pattern of insurgency.

[chequita guevara]

The Western civilians in Iraq say the mood has changed.

The Iraqis said they'd give us a year to fix things, then we had to get out. It's been a year, things aren't fixed, we're not out. Iraq, despite what polls two months ago might have said, is becomming increasingly hostile to us.

Bush blew it. The window of opportunity is closing rapidly. There will be no Western style democracy in Iraq leading to a domino effect . . . or at least not one the U.S. wants.

[Alexander's Horse]

Apparently one thing they really regret now was disbanding the former Iraqi army. That meant a lot trained military people with a grudge and no longer getting pay or rations. Plus a power vaccuum.

The ambush attacks have shown significant military planning i.e. the people know what they are doing.

[chequita guevara]

They could always call the army back. They won't do it though. That would be to admit error and they never make mistakes.

[Dr Strangelove]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
The Western civilians in Iraq say the mood has changed.

The Iraqis said they'd give us a year to fix things, then we had to get out. It's been a year, things aren't fixed, we're not out. Iraq, despite what polls two months ago might have said, is becomming increasingly hostile to us.

Bush blew it. The window of opportunity is closing rapidly. There will be no Western style democracy in Iraq leading to a domino effect . . . or at least not one the U.S. wants.

What chance would a fledgling government have had faced with the continual attacks by car bombers and guerillas? It doesn't take a genius to understand that under the conditions that have existed in Iraq for the past 12 months the country would have fallen apart had the coalition just set up elections and left. Can you, or the insurgents, really be so blind as to not see that? If Sadr and Sistani had really wanted a stable nation safe for his constituents to live in they should have helped the coalition suppress the guerillas 6 months ago.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Dr Strangelove
What chance . . .

Uhm, did you miss the part about them giving us a year? The Iraqis said, you have 12 months. It's been twelve months. They say it's time to go. There was a window of opportunity, Bush and his people squandered it trying to be politically palatable back home. They cufked up. Now we are facing a growing insurgency.

[Alexander's Horse]

But as Doc points out quite rightly - how do you get out now?

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[Dr Strangelove]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


Uhm, did you miss the part about them giving us a year? The Iraqis said, you have 12 months. It's been twelve months. They say it's time to go. There was a window of opportunity, Bush and his people squandered it trying to be politically palatable back home. They cufked up. Now we are facing a growing insurgency.

What kind of window is it that contains exploding vehicles? IIRC for the past years hese fellows have been blowing up any facility or group of people perceived as beiing involved in the coalitionefforts to reconstruct Iraq. They've been particularily keen on blowing up queues of innocent people attempting to apply for jobs in the new police and government. They've blown up Iraqis involved in negotiating a new constitution for Iraq. They've blown up facilities under repair. What exactly do you think the people of Iraq had in mind with respect to "fixing things up"? Do they really think it would be desireable for us to just repair their power plants and leave them with no government?

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse
But as Doc points out quite rightly - how do you get out now?

The same way as in Vietnam, wait too damn long, let too many people die, and fail in the end anyway.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Dr Strangelove
What kind of window is it that contains exploding vehicles?

The military asked for half a million men to be able to do its job correctly. Rumsfeld shoved it back in their face saying it was too unimaginative. We have 1/4 the troops in Iraq needed to do the job. On top of that, they abolished the entire army, rather than de-Baathifying it.

Would things be perfect and peachy keen? No. But we'd be a lot futher down the path, and may have generated a lot less hostility.

Do they really think it would be desireable for us to just repair their power plants and leave them with no government?

They had a year to create one. It doesn't take that long. People in bigger countries have done it in less time in the middle of a World War.

[Alexander's Horse]

Half Million troops? That's the Vietnam magic number. Give it a couple of years....

[chequita guevara]

We are a very impatient people. We don't like waiting seven minutes for a baked potato. What maks you think we're gonna put up with a couple of years of mass insurgency?

[Kropotkin]

When, in april of 2003, did the iraqi people (and with 'people' I mean the wast majority of the country's population, not some bolshevik avante garde) say they would give the coalition twelve months? I must have missed that...

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
They had a year to create one. It doesn't take that long. People in bigger countries have done it in less time in the middle of a World War.

How many of them were facing the hurdle of no experience with Democratic government, no census information, and little in the way of institutions still around from the old regime? Hell it took us longer than a year to create a stable government in the US after kicking the Brits out.