ANALYSIS: North Korea as a Nuclear Power

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Gatekeeper


What if China intercedes? Tells us not to respond in kind? After all, it wouldn't be *our* cities burning.

Gatekeeper

China would not intercede if NK used nukes first. Of this, I am as certain as anything regarding China.

[KrazyHorse]

You guys are vastly overestimating three things:

1) The military effect of a nuclear strike
2) The conventional capabilities of the NK army
3) China's willingness to go balls to the wall for NK if NK goes insane and launches a nuclear strike.

[Gatekeeper]

KH:

Hypothetically, let's say NK uses tactical nukes all along the DMZ, rendering most of the troops and equipment near there useless. We — as in the United States and our allies — strike back in a similar vein, taking out NK's hardened mountain bases (hmm ... might we need strategic weapons for hardened targets?) and other sundry military targets.

China would sit quietly by? Perhaps. But if Mexico were fighting an all-out war with Cuba (no, not likely, but just bear with me), and heavy fighting was going on next to the Texas border, would the U.S. sit quietly by. I don't think so. At the very least, we'd be screaming our heads off at both parties and maybe a bit more. China would do the same at the very least, IMO.

[Az]

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Gatekeeper]

The Future's So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades

[Az]

this indeed is terrifyingly glorious.

[Q Classic]

Does pakistan have anywhere near this level of missle tech? Don't think so!

pakistan and iran got much of its missile tech from nkorea.
recent intelligence suggests that pakistan traded nuclear secrets to nkorea for missle tech.

China needs to come out NOW and say that a nuculear free peninsula is required for its national security. DPRK will get the message (hopefully).

china has already stated its desire for a nuclear-free korean peninsula.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Gatekeeper
KH:

Hypothetically, let's say NK uses tactical nukes all along the DMZ, rendering most of the troops and equipment near there useless. We — as in the United States and our allies — strike back in a similar vein, taking out NK's hardened mountain bases (hmm ... might we need strategic weapons for hardened targets?) and other sundry military targets.

China would sit quietly by? Perhaps. But if Mexico were fighting an all-out war with Cuba (no, not likely, but just bear with me), and heavy fighting was going on next to the Texas border, would the U.S. sit quietly by. I don't think so. At the very least, we'd be screaming our heads off at both parties and maybe a bit more. China would do the same at the very least, IMO.

First off, NK needs 20X more nukes than it is likely to get in foreseeable future in order to accomplish this.

Second of all, nukes are the big no-no. China understands this. The US understands this. Everybody understands this. If NK launched a nuke attack then you'd have people chanting for their blood across the world. China would probably let NK go at that point. Their other option is to invade themselves. Which IMO, they would see as contrary to their interests (NK being the ****hole that it is)

[Gatekeeper]

I just don't know, KH. If NK hit military targets with tactical nukes, I'm sure there would be people out there — ordinarily rational people — who would find some way to "justify" what was done, and that the U.S. and its allies shouldn't strike back in a similar fashion.

If NK is to be believed, they'll have at least eight nuclear warheads by the end of the year, and their production capabilities will just increase from there. It might not take them long to reach the critical number they deem necessary to neutralize most military targets w/i the range of their warheads. And that's not even taking into consideration if they sell them, rather than use them. Which is more likely, IMO.

Gatekeeper

[Az]

If NK launched a nuke attack then you'd have people chanting for their blood across the world.

I don't think that those that are in range of NK nukes will chant a lot.

[Ben Kenobi]

Krazyhorse:

People have been saying that for decades. The problem is that they're almost certain to develop a significant number of nukes before this happens.

And the death throes of a nuclear nation with a chip on its shoulder will not be pretty.

First of all, this is one of the situations where patience seems to be called for. Action now, may prove rash and costly.

Secondly, how long can they last? People just before the collapse of the Soviet Union felt that it might be another 5 years before the country fell apart. We have no idea how long we will have to wait for NK to collapse.

Finally, as for preventing the death throes of a nuclear power has come and gone, look at what happened to the Soviet Union. Even though they have had quite a bit of turmoil, the nuclear weapons have not rained down on neighbouring countries.

I would think the last thought of any ruler faced with an internal rebellion would wish to use nuclear weapons on his own people.

Granted, I fear that if SK stops funding NK, then we will have a predictament if the NK know they have their backs up against the wall, and lash out against Japan. The key is the timing, whether or not the NK will collapse before they can react.

I don't see any good coming from American military intervention at this point in time.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Gatekeeper
I just don't know, KH. If NK hit military targets with tactical nukes, I'm sure there would be people out there — ordinarily rational people — who would find some way to "justify" what was done, and that the U.S. and its allies shouldn't strike back in a similar fashion

Couple things:

1) Hopefully you're aware of my politics. I represent the left of a fairly (compared to you) leftist country. I am a critic of the US when it comes to most of its foreign policies.

2) If NK had 5 nukes (say) and used them all in an attack against SK, and the US had conventional options open to it to defend SK, then I probably would be opposed to the use of nukes against NK (depending on what the probable casualty count was).

3) If NK had 25 nukes and used 5 of them against SK, then used the other 20 as a big stick to keep the US etc. out of affairs on the Korean continent then I would have no problem whatsoever with the US blasting the **** out of them. If nukes are to continue to remain an unattractive option across the world then nuclear blackmail to facilitate wars of conquest cannot be permitted, especially when the blackmailing power has demonstrated its willingness to use them. In this case the only viable option would probably be the nuclear annihilation of NK's nuclear and launch capabilities.

IMO you have a mistaken view of the reaction of the world to a nuclear attack. Nobody's ever used nukes since the possibility of a nuclear war became possible in 1949. None of the nuclear powers want to see a nuclear war, as it would almost certainly degrade their standing (even if they were not directly involved). China would do nothing to defend NK from the consequences of its actions.

[KrazyHorse]

obiwan

dp

[KrazyHorse]

obiwan

I am not in favour of US military intervention at this time either.

But positing that NK will collapse before it becomes a viable nuclear threat is wishful thinking.

[PLATO]

I don't think that US intervention is a huge concern at this point. Washington knows what the casualties would be and they don't want them. Containment is only feasible if DPRK is willing to make some concessions to keep them from aquiring a large fold of nuke tipped missles. Japan will not be able to stand for this threat and they may take some sort of action to try to equalize the balance of power.

The problem is that for Kim and DPRK to survive they must have some type of push in their economy. Kim and crew are aware of this. If their attempts to blackmail the west into providing it fail, then the big question becomes...What's next?

Meanwhile DPRK continues to develop and test missles and to develop and build nukes. The only viable alternative is for China to get tough. They must demand DPRK stop nuke work now. To simply express a dsire for a nuke free peninsula is good, but not enough in this case. China holds the purse strings and their words are backed with nuclear weapons (always wanted to find a way to include that in a post!). If they come out now and do this, then war may be avoided. If not, IMHO, most scenarios lead to an eventual war.