ANALYSIS: North Korea as a Nuclear Power

[Gatekeeper]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
a) If NK nuked SK then the US would blanket NK in nukes.

What if China intercedes? Tells us not to respond in kind? After all, it wouldn't be *our* cities burning.

Gatekeeper

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Gatekeeper


What if China intercedes? Tells us not to respond in kind? After all, it wouldn't be *our* cities burning.

Gatekeeper

I think that you have hit on a critical point. The role of China. If DPRK uses one or two nukes and China says "Stop right there! And US don't invite a response from us with a counter attack" then Kim has a far greater chance to gain what he wants.

China needs to come out NOW and say that a nuculear free peninsula is required for its national security. DPRK will get the message (hopefully).

[gopher]

Also remember, any NK attack across the 38'th will NOT stay conventional. NK has highly advanced Biological and especially chemical warfare systems, partly by their own design, but mostly from the former socialist block of the USSR, Libya, Syria, etc. So even if we take out their nukes and a signifigant portion of their heavy artillery, massive damage can be done.

[Az]

OR DPRK will do the same stunt with China. It can already reach Beijing. Admittedly, China's reselience to civilian casualties is much higher, but I think that they still wouldn't like to have their capital city destroyed, and will try to reach a different solution.

[PLATO]

I think that it is highly doubtful that Kim will try to have a standoff with PRC. In the end, they will have much to do with weather or not he survives.

[solar]

These senarios are why SK and Japan may get nuclear weapons. Then they will be able to respond if they are ever attacked without having to worry about whether or not the US will protect them.

[DinoDoc]

That's what caused France to get them.

[Drake Tungsten]

That's what caused France to get them.

That and general Gaullist pride.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
That and general Gaullist pride.

Would you have been willing to trade New York or Washington DC to save Paris or Marseille?

[Cruddy]

Originally posted by Azazel
Who's willing to be nuked?

Anyone that's out of range of a possible NK response - bearing in mind the scenerio we are discussing a first strike by NK.

[GePap]

I find so much of what is being said far-fetched.

NK does not have missiles yet that can reach anything more thant he Aelutian Islands, as far as attacks on the US itrself are concerned. It probably can hit Okinawa and the citizens and US troops there: it can certainly hit tokyo. No, NK does not have Thermonuclear bombs; since to do that you need heavy isotopes of water, and no one has said that NK has the wherewithall to manufacture them. So they are stuck with nukes of about Hiroshima or Nagasaki size: but on a city like Tokyo, that is still 100,000+ dead and the health care infrastructure set to its limit.

As for the NK's attack: The NK could not porbaby make it all the way to Seoul before their man thrusts were stopped, if only because of the huge firepower of the US and SK: but they wopuld have done huge daamge by then, and flattened Seol. MOr eimprotantly, the US and SK counterattack would not be easy, given the terrain and 50 years of digging on the part of the North.

As for China: China would not use nukes vs. NK unless the north attaced it, and that would be suicidal anyway: the big question would be if China would shut off all oil and energy exports ot NK at the moment a war begun, and I would say that is most probable, since it would be in China's interest to have a war end as quickly as possible. I doubt the NK would then waste thier few nukes hitting China iun retaliation: Japan is their most likely target (much more likely than SK)

[Drake Tungsten]

Would you have been willing to trade New York or Washington DC to save Paris or Marseille?

I doubt we would've had that choice. If the Soviets ever launched a first-strike, they would not have hit the French and no one else.

[solar]

They might have decided that they wanted all of contenental Europe and taken the chance that the US and GB would not retaliate, but this is off topic.

[Drake Tungsten]

They still would've had to go through American forces in West Germany.

[Gatekeeper]

It seems a lot of the "what-ifs" come down to how China would react to any NK attack on SK and/or Japan.

As for Kim's sanity, I've read that outwardly he may appear insane, but it's really just a facade. Right now, being "insane" is benefitting Kim and NK, so it's likely that persona (if that's what it merely is) will be kept up as long as NK gets what it wants.

Gatekeeper