US to pull out of Saudi Arabia.

[Ned]

Originally posted by GePap
Get a grip people: the Sauds are generally as glad to see us gone as you guys are that we leave, though they won;t say it in public. The fact is that we will still jump to protect the Sauds at the drop of a hat if it comes to that, and we will still sell them billions of dolars of top-notch Us hardware.

Are you sure about this? With our troops out, we now can really frank about the Saudi regime. They pulled our chain because of the base.

Now, if they face a revolution, I sincerely doubt we will do a thing. If they are attacked by a powerful neighbor, our attitude will depend upon whether the attack was unprovoked or not. We used to simply stay out of Arab-Arab wars. I think going back to this policy might be a good thing.

I remember, though, how many in the US wanted to declare war on Saudi Arabia when they used the oil weapon on us in '73. I think the next time they try such a thing, they are toast.

[GePap]

The saud sit on top of the world largest know oil reserve, about twice that of Iraq at number 2. They are one fo the biggest customers of US weaponry out there. The sauds get more time at the Bush ranch than anyone else bu Tony. Face it Ned, but the political forces workign for a Washington relation with Riyahd are far more powerful than transiatory public moods of indignation. We might not save the Sauds form internal revolt (anymore than we did the Shah) but if anyone threatens them form the outside, we WILL be there to save thier asses.

[gunkulator]

Bush will not p1ss off the Saudis - too much oil there. GWI was really about saving the Saudis, not itty bitty Kuwait. No question though that the Saudis run one of the most repressive regimes in the region though. With the threat of Iraq gone, the Saudis have few security concerns now - Iran possibly but not likely.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by gunkulator
Bush will not p1ss off the Saudis - too much oil there. GWI was really about saving the Saudis, not itty bitty Kuwait. No question though that the Saudis run one of the most repressive regimes in the region though. With the threat of Iraq gone, the Saudis have few security concerns now - Iran possibly but not likely.

The greatest threat to the Saudis is internal, not external.

[GePap]

Yeah, and by pulling out we help them to defuse that threat: the great threat to them is not from liberal democracts but from Fundi. preachers, and the further the Sauds pull fomr the Us the more they can appease the fundies.

[gsmoove23]

Whether troops shot first or people in the crowd is irrelevant as both the word of local civilians and the official army line are suspect. This is just what happens when you have an occupying force in a country that doesn't particularly appreciate the occupier. Troops will get shot at and troops will have reason to believe that a bullet with their name on it is waiting for them around every corner, in every crowd... Best training in the world or not, mistakes will be made.

Good reason for not 'liberating' countries where the populous might not like you.

Chances are the bases are being moved to Qatar or one of those other emirates on any permanent basis, not Iraq.

[PLATO]

This may well be true, but I think that the obstacles that the royal family faces may be insurmoutable. They cannot economically withdraw from the west and they will probably end up endorsing some type of peace deal with Israel. Given these factors, the fundamentalist may decide that a theocracy is the best way to go in SA. Unfortunately, I think their chances of success are good.

[Sava]

Good post gsmoove.

Democracy is something that the people must want and strive for themselves. Sure, we should help them. But we shouldn't do the work for them. Especially not at the expense of the American people.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by gsmoove23
Whether troops shot first or people in the crowd is irrelevant as both the word of local civilians and the official army line are suspect. This is just what happens when you have an occupying force in a country that doesn't particularly appreciate the occupier. Troops will get shot at and troops will have reason to believe that a bullet with their name on it is waiting for them around every corner, in every crowd... Best training in the world or not, mistakes will be made.

Good reason for not 'liberating' countries where the populous might not like you.

Chances are the bases are being moved to Qatar or one of those other emirates on any permanent basis, not Iraq.

I don't think everyone in any country would be happy with any occupying power. From what I can tell, most of the population is glad we are there.

[GePap]

Originally posted by PLATO1003
This may well be true, but I think that the obstacles that the royal family faces may be insurmoutable. They cannot economically withdraw from the west and they will probably end up endorsing some type of peace deal with Israel. Given these factors, the fundamentalist may decide that a theocracy is the best way to go in SA. Unfortunately, I think their chances of success are good.

I ams ure the Sauds will be last in line to post their agreement once an deal is truck in many years. Once such a deal gets strong Pal. support that lasts, the fundie preachers can be dealt with.

[gsmoove23]

Originally posted by PLATO1003


I don't think everyone in any country would be happy with any occupying power. From what I can tell, most of the population is glad we are there.

Oh really? You don't think that Iraqis might dislike our presence in their country a little more then say French or Germans or Japanese or South Koreans or... Not just a little eensy weensy bit. Almost every interview I've seen with Iraqis they want the US out, whether or not they're pleased with the removal of Saddam, except of course those Iraqis backed by the US government. C'mon, your head is in the sand, try again.

[gunkulator]

Originally posted by gsmoove23


Oh really? You don't think that Iraqis might dislike our presence in their country a little more then say French or Germans or Japanese or South Koreans

Um, no, not really. What makes you so certain that there is something fundamentally different about Iraqis than, say, the Japanese of 1945? Let's turn the question around: What reasons would those other countries have for liking the US better than the Iraqis?

[Shi Huangdi]

Originally posted by GePap
The saud sit on top of the world largest know oil reserve, about twice that of Iraq at number 2. They are one fo the biggest customers of US weaponry out there. The sauds get more time at the Bush ranch than anyone else bu Tony. Face it Ned, but the political forces workign for a Washington relation with Riyahd are far more powerful than transiatory public moods of indignation. We might not save the Sauds form internal revolt (anymore than we did the Shah) but if anyone threatens them form the outside, we WILL be there to save thier asses.

Unfortunately, he is right. We don't like the current government in power in Saudi Arabia, but it's hard to imagine what it could be repalced with. There is very strong fundamentalist pressure in Saudi Arabia, much worse then in Iraq. Most of the present opposition to the current regime are Islamists who would most likely be worse then the current regime, they might well actively harbor Bin Laden.

I can't imagine the consequences of something like "Operation Arabian Freedom"? Unlikely Iraq where many are grateful for our liberation and many were waving American flags, in Saudi we'd be dealing with a hateful population that would resist us bitterly, and they would be certain to use guerilla warfare agaisnt us in the deserts and cities. Worse, they would probably hole themselves up in Mecca and Medina? Can you imagine the US bombing those cities, or even worse storming their gates!? That would be the type of thing that would cause a war between civilizations, just what Bin Laden wants.

[Dinner]

OF course they don't like us but they also didn't like Saddam either and that didn't stop them from licking his boot for 30 years now did it? I'm hoping we can hold it tegether for a year or so that way we'll be able to draft a new constitution and set up a more agreeable government.

BTW The U.S. will have long term bases in Iraq; just ask the Germans, Japanese, Bosnians, Italians, Kosovars, Koreans...

[Dinner]

With regards to the fundies and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. My hat is off for Blair; he's done more then any other man to push Bush into dealing with this issue. The Brits are right we will never be rid of the fundies as long as the Jewish-Arab problem continues to fester.

What we need is a real peace plan that sets up a real Palestinian government that will come down like a ton of bricks on the fundies.