Cloak & Dagger

[Sullla]

Absolutely outstanding! We have a relatively clear picture of what all the other teams are doing, solely from the Demographics screen! I nominate mostly_harmless as permanent head of the Ministry of Truth.

I'll see what I can do about archiving some screenshots as well, just in case. Let me know if you need any other help.

[mostly-harmless]

Turn17:


After the revelation that Imperio went BW last turn, we see for turn 17 another significant increase in soldier points.
Now, the civstat-log does not state an ingame point increase for any of the teams, nevertheless, after logging in, you will notice the Rabbits now leading the score with 53 ingame points. An increase of 6 points, meaning a tech gained.
The only way for this to happen is that they gained the tech not by research but by other means, speak Goodie Hut.
Lets try to find out what they popped.
The increase of all rival's soldier points from turn 16 (33000) to turn 17 (42000) is 9000. We can see that the worst rival increased soldier points from 3000 to 4000 by building a warrior. So there are 8000 points left. No other team gained a tech, no team increased population. So there are two options (assuming no team has managed to built a 60h barracks in 17 turns):

Option 1:
2 warriors were built, each by a different team accounting for 2000 points together leaving 6000 points for the Rabbit tech.
6000points techs are: Mathematics & Archery.
This option is possible, if Rabbits had 8000points before, which I doubt. My feeling is they had 6000 points before from:
starting tech Hunting (2000) + warrior built (1000) + size 2 capital (1000) + Mining researched (2000)

So that leaves us with Option 2:
The 8000 point increase is solely accounted for by the Rabbit tech.
Possibilities are:
Bronze Working or Machinery.

I assign the option that the Rabbits just popped BW from a hut a very high probability.
Luckily they do not have a worker yet.

There is another small change in the average rival life expectancy from 70 to 71.
It implies that the number of healthy faces has increased slightly or the number of unhealthy faces has decreased, either way most likely by 1. Imperio's worker could not have connected any resources yet, as they only know mining. Nobody knows how to cut down jungle, nor do they have the necessary tech for it. That just leaves a forest grown in a rivals BFC.
Of course you could connect sea food resources to increase health points, but we do not see a change in the food production figures.

mh

ps.: We can always check my assumption regarding BW by going into the "Hanging Gardens" public posting thread and ask "Alright. Who left that axe next to the door?" And then check who gets jumpy. :-)

[regoarrarr]

I saw in my game last night (this was Warlords) that after I mined a gold on a river (my capital was also on a river) that it connected, even before I roaded it.

Could that be possible for the increase in happiness (if Imperio's worker mined a gold silver or gems)?

Or did I imagine that it's possible

[mostly-harmless]

Resources on a river do not need to be roaded. The river automatically connects them to the trade network.
I noticed you are talking happy resource and spotted a typing mistake.
I was talking health resources.

mh

[Zeviz]

Mh, the amount of information you've gained from demographics screen alone is simply amazing. Thanks to you, we have a clear picture of which of our rivals present an immediate threat, which will allow us to decide how much to invest into military, which will let us grow as quickly as possible, leading to our victory.

[mostly-harmless]

That's the spirit!
"Domination through Information!!
mh

[mostly-harmless]

Turn18 (early):

I say "early" since not many teams have logged in yet.
Anyway here is the demoscreen.


Apart from the food production of the best rival (drop from 10 to 9) nothing has changed. Can't explain that really. Could be it is not the same civ and teams have reshuffled their worked tiles.

No ingame score was increased at the beginning of the turn.
However, PAL logged in and got an increase to 53, implying a tech gained, further implying it must be obtained by other means than research -> a hut. However, since no increase of soldier points was listed PAL did not get a military relevant tech.

Meeting our first neighbors reveals so more infos.

From the victory condition screen, we know they named their capital Jerusalem, which is of no strategic importance, but still makes we wonder why they went ahead and founded Buddhism instead of Christianity.
Furthermore we can see that they are ahead of us in culture, which is consistent with them owning a holy city, giving 5cpt + the 2cpt from the palace. Templars will pop their 3rd ring in 5 turns and become leader inland size for a short while (unitl we pop our 3rd ring in 8 turns.) The currently listed 71 culture points actually imply two more things.
We know they founded Buddhism on turn 11, giving them 7cpt from turn12 on. That means their current culture is calculated by 11turns x 2cpt (=22c) + 7 turns x 7cpt (=49c) = 71c.
So they did settle on the first turn, otherwise they would have lost 2c and they have not switched to Buddhism yet, as a turn in anarchy would have cost them 7c. I hope that makes sense.

From another figure on that screen you can see why we will overtake them in landsize again.
Domination limit shows we own 1.44% with our 21 land tiles. Templars only own 1.00% with their BFC meaning they have approx. 15 land tiles including the city tile. With that river there, they most likely settled next to a river mouth on the coast.
This has the potential for international trade route with them =religion spread via the coastline.

Finally one more info, this time via the espionage points. It took me a little while to find the figures, as we have not officially met them, so the espionage ratio is not revealed when hovering over the score list. But the ratio is displayed on the Foreign Realtionship screen and says 4/4.
Assuming they did not increase their espionage spending to 40% or mess around with the points allocation (nice idea actually), the 4 espionage points they spent towards us this turn is all they have, implying they have not met anyone else. And that with predicted 2 scouting Quechas (the 3rd assumed on city garrison).

I will update the Templars thread.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

I need some help from more experienced player now. How is the research bonus accounted for that we get from knowing other teams?
Will the total amount of beakers a tech costs be reduced or do we get a modifier on our bpt output if researching a tech someone else knows already?
We might be able to tell what techs were researched by our neighbours that way pre-alphabet.

For example if we were to switch research towards Meditation, which is already known to the Templars, how can we see the bonus that is awarded?

mh

[Sullla]

Here's the official explanation: (http://www.civfanatics.com/civ4/stra...h_research.php)

One important note.
FLOOR means rounding DOWN to the nearest integer AND it has higher precedence than all other operators EXCEPT FOR parentheses. You will see it used a lot in the article.

The basics (of generating beakers)
1) Each city generates a raw amount of commerce via the squares that are being worked and the trade routes in the cities.

2) This commerce is in turn translated into beakers (research), coins (gold), or notes (culture) via the technology and culture sliders. The actual amount of beakers and notes are gained by using the specified slider rate in the following equation:

FLOOR (total commerce * the specified slider rate).

The remainder is then given in gold.

So, yes, you WILL get AT LEAST one gold from each city that has a commerce that is not a multiple of 10, if your science or culture is not 100%.

3) Each city then takes each amount and adds in any additional sources of research, gold, or culture (via shrines, production processes, and specialists, mainly).

4) Each city then multiplies it by whatever modifiers it has depending on what buildings it has built (e.g., beakers are multiplied by 1.25 if it has a library, gold is multiplied by 1.5 if it has a bank, etc.). NOTE: multipliers are ADDITIVE (i.e., if you have a library and university, your beakers will be multiplied by 1.5 (1 + 0.25 + 0.25) NOT 1.5625 (1 * 1.25 * 1.25)).

5) The beaker totals are then added up across the cities and the sum is your base beaker total.

Technology Costs
To calculate the technology cost of a technology:

1) Take the base cost of the technology. (This can be found for each technology in Assets\XML\Technologies\CIV4TechInfo.xml).

2) Take the Difficulty Modifier and add 0.5 * the Number of teammates you have to it. (The difficulty modifier can be found in Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4HandicapInfo.xml.)

3) Multiply 1) by 2) and take the FLOOR of the product.

4) Multiply 3) by the Map Modifier and take the FLOOR of the product. (The map modifier can be found in Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4WorldInfo.xml.)

5) Multiply 4) by the Speed Modifier and take the FLOOR of the product. This generates the actual cost of the technology. (The speed modifier can be found in Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4GameSpeedInfo.xml.)

Thus the formula to calculate a Technology's cost is:

Technology Cost = FLOOR (FLOOR (FLOOR (Base Cost * (Difficulty Modifier + 0.5 * # of teammates)) * Map Modifier) * Speed Modifier)


Applying the Research to the Technology
The amount of beakers applied to the technology cost is dependant upon the number of civilizations which know the tech and the number of requirements you have fulfilled for the technology.

Calculating the Known Civilizations w/ Tech modifier
1) Multiply 0.30 by the number of KNOWN, LIVING civilizations, who have the tech.

2) Divide by the number of civilizations which STARTED on the map and ROUND DOWN to the hundredth place (0.01) of the quotient.

3) Add 2) to 1

Tech Known by Civilizations modifier = 1 + RDDW (0.30 * # known Civs who have the tech / # of Civs who started the game


Calculating the Prerequisites modifier
1) Start with 1. If the technology does NOT have a minimum requirement (i.e., the starting techs = Fishing, The Wheel, Agriculture, Hunting, Mysticism, Mining), then use 1 AS the modifier.

2) Add 0.2 to 1) if a Technology has a MINIMUM Requirement that the player has met. Note: Even if a tech has MANY MANDATORY PREREQUISITES, it will still only give you a boost of 1.2 because you MUST have all those prerequisites to research the tech. (IOW, the minimum requirement IS all of those prerequisites.)

3) Add 0.2 to 2) for EACH ADDITIONAL OPTIONAL Prerequisite that the player has met.

Requirements modifier = 1 + (0.2 * MINIMUM Req. met) + (0.2 * # of Optional Prereq. met)

Calculating the Actual Amount of Beakers Generated Toward a Tech
To calculate the amount of beakers which you generate toward the technology:

1) Take the total sum of beakers generated by all your cities (the result from the basics part).

2) Add 1 to it if you have a city.

3) Multiply 2) by the Known Civilizations w/ Tech modifier and take the FLOOR of the product.

4) Multiply 3) by Prerequisites modifier and take the FLOOR of the product.

The formula to calculate the amount of beakers applied to your technology is:

Beakers applied to Technology = FLOOR (FLOOR ((Total Base Beakers + 1) * KCwT modifier) * Prerequisites modifier)



An Example:
I always seem to understand better with an example, so here's a basic one.

Say you want to research Code of Laws which has a base cost of 350 beakers, the mandatory requirement of Writing and the optional (meaning you must research one of them) requirements of (Priesthood or Currency).

You know Writing and Priesthood

You produce 37 net beakers per turn and you have met 3 other civilizations who know it out of 7 who started the map.

You started on a standard map (1.4 modifier) at the monarch difficulty level (1.15 modifier) at epic game speed (1.5 modifier) and have 1 teammate.

Your cost would be:

FLOOR (FLOOR (FLOOR (350 * (1.15 + 0.5 * 1)) * 1.4) * 1.5)

FLOOR (350 * 1.65) = 577
FLOOR (577 * 1.4) = 807
FLOOR (807 * 1.5) = 1210

Total cost = 1210

The amount of beakers applied to code of laws would be:

FLOOR (FLOOR ((37 + 1) * (1 + RDDW (0.30 * 3 / 7))) * (1 + 0.2 + (0.2 * 0))

1 + RDDW (0.30 * 3 / 7) = 1.12
FLOOR (38 * 1.12) = 42
FLOOR (42 * 1.2) = 50

Beakers applied to Code of Laws/turn = 50

Note that having Writing AND Priesthood only gives you a bonus modifier of 1.2 because you must have at LEAST Writing PLUS one of the optional prerequisites to be able to research Code of Laws. If you also had Currency, then the modifier would be 1.4.

Overflow
The overflow is calculated by the modifiers from the PREVIOUS Technology. Therefore, if you finished researching Writing this turn, and you had all THREE optional requirements, the overflow beakers which applied to your next technology would be equal to however many you had left USING THE MODIFIERS FOR Writing after finishing Writing. So, your Requirements modifier would be 1.6 (1.2 * 3). So, you could conceivable get a significant boost toward your next tech OVER WHAT YOU SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN if you have a lot of overflow.

* * * * *

So there you go. If someone is willing to run the numbers, by all means be my guest.

[ruff_hi]

I think that the bonus beakers are added to our beakers per turn during the 'end of turn' processing. Aren't there two bonuses ... 1) knowledge of pre-reqs and 2) other teams knowing the tech? Edit: yes as per Sullla above.

removed my simple example, using Sullla's example above ... You can see the 38 (37 from city, 1 for free) beakers that we are putting out. You can only see the actual beakers added to the tech (50) after you have hit end of turn and the 'end of turn' processes are complete.

I got burnt by this (magic beaker bonuses) in our SGOTM7 game and wasted 1.5 turns of research waiting for a GScientist to pop.

Edit after reading Sullla's post: Is the Technology's cost also displayed in-game by hovering over the tech?

[Sullla]

Ruff, the technology's cost is displayed in-game by hovering over it on the tech screen, BUT that number doesn't factor in the "bonus beakers" we were just discussing. I'm looking in the Demogame right now, and it easily confirms this:

The Wheel and Agriculture techs both have the same base cost (60, in the XML). We know that the Templars have Agriculture, since they started with it, and don't have The Wheel (unless they popped it from a hut). The cost to research displays as exactly the same on the tech screen, 85 beakers for each. I believe that we would get more beakers from research Agriculture, however, based on the way the tech engine works.

Let me try to do a sample calculation, using those same two techs (The Wheel and Agriculture):

Base cost = 60
Multiply by difficulty modifier (1.10 for Prince) = 66
Multiply by map modifier (1.3 for Standard) = 85
Multiply by game speed (1 for Normal) = 85

Which is exactly what the game says, yay! This basically confirms that knowing other civs does not lower the tech COST. What it does (as predicted) is increase the bonus beakers added for researching known techs. Let's try that calculation now:

Total base beakers (10) + 1* = 11
Known Civs modifier = (.3 * 1) / 6 + 1 = 1.05
FLOOR (11 * 1.05) = FLOOR (11.55) = 11
Multiply by prerequisites modifier (none) = 11 * 1 = 11

*Why the +1? You are always guaranteed to get at least one beaker each turn, even with no science invested.

So right now, there is no discernible benefit from knowing the Templars in researching Agriculture over The Wheel. The result is still 11 beakers/turn in both cases. We must either meet another civ or (more likely) increase our own total beaker output to see a benefit.

OK, hope that makes sense. I feel as though I've got a much better handle on the math from running a couple of examples. At the very least, we know that there's no benefit to researching techs the Templars already know until we hit 20 beaker/turn.

[ruff_hi]

Originally posted by Sullla
Multiply by game speed (1 for Normal) = 85 Which is exactly what the game says, yay!

Good to know. My bet is that the bonus (either one) is not displayed in the hover but only added to the beakers added to the tech during the 'end of turn' processing.

So right now, there is no discernible benefit from knowing the Templars in researching Agriculture over The Wheel.

Guess this is the upshot! No bonus for knowing these guys (yet).

At the very least, we know that there's no benefit to researching techs the Templars already know until we hit 20 beaker/turn.

Well, actually ... 19 per turn plus the free beaker

[mostly-harmless]

Alright, thanks guys for clearing that up.
So it does not amount to much gain as far as the Cloak & Dagger department is concerned. And it will become obsolete once we know Alphabet.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

I have reached a point, where I cannot make much sense out of the data available without digging deep.

I missed the screenshots for turn 19 and only got the civstat log indicating PAL ingame points rise by 4, implying they have now grown to size 3!

Then turn 20 sees a lot of in-game score rises, namely:
PAL (again) from 57 to 65.
Templars from 41 to 52.
Banana from 41 to 51.

The jumps are 8, 11 & 10.
Very odd numbers, there is a pop increase (score jump = 4) in there somewhere, there might be a tech gained (score jump = 6) in there somewhere. However, neither explains the observed jumps.

So I tested a bit and noticed that with the new patch the score increase for growing your city now varies between 4 and 5 points. Ugh! Why? Firaxis read this thread or what?
Furthermore in my test game I got rewarded 16! points on turn 20 for "land" without anything changing. Another 14 points were rewarded for land on turn 24, again with no apparent change.

I cannot explain the mechanics behind those land score jumps.
So unless someone knows exactly how it works, I have reached the point, where I cannot determine anything reliable from the in-game score anymore. They also might have changed how the demographics are calculated (soldier points?). Who knows.

With this source of info gone, I will still keep looking around, but don't expect an update each turn.

I hope that some of the predictions will turn out to be correct and will do their their bit helping us to survive the early turns.

I also gather from the feedback that people enjoyed the analysis and helped them through the "boring" scout moving.

Now we have met the first neighbor and things will get more excited on that front.

mh

[Kylearan]

Hi,

Originally posted by mostly-harmless Furthermore in my test game I got rewarded 16! points on turn 20 for "land" without anything changing. Another 14 points were rewarded for land on turn 24, again with no apparent change.

I seem to remember that if you acquire new tiles (by border expansion, for example), they register for score only after 20 turns, i.e. you have to keep those tiles for 20 turns for them to affect score. My memory could be wrong on this, though...

-Kylearan