Cloak & Dagger

[mostly-harmless]

Originally posted by sunrise089
... There is one more way to reach five hammers per turn however - settling on a stone or marble hill, which gives 3(!) hammers in the city tile, and then working anything else really. ...

Oh! I did not know that. So that could mean 5hpt and still 1fpt excess.
With all those industrious civs out there, not having to spend worker turns to construct a quarry could give someone the edge when it comes to getting the early wonders up.

mh

[Sullla]

That IS impressive work, mostly_harmless! I concur that the most troubling thing would be if someone is spamming warriors, in anticipation of an early rush. I guess we'll be able to keep an eye on that with the power rating.

I continue to be very impressed m_h. There is one more way to reach five hammers per turn however - settling on a stone or marble hill, which gives 3(!) hammers in the city tile, and then working anything else really. This play is so strong in MP that many players will move blind and risk having no food.

Also a possibility. Although this is a customized map, and any map designer who left stone/marble in the starting radius of any civ should be beaten to death. (That's extremely unbalancing, especially if an Industrious civ landed it.)

[Zeviz]

Very impressive work.

How much production does a warrior take? (If it took 6 turns to train it, was it necessarily trained by the guys going for max production?) It it was, somebody is planning a rush. If it wasn't, max production could be an imperialistic CIV training a worker.

[mostly-harmless]

Originally posted by Zeviz
How much production does a warrior take? (If it took 6 turns to train it, was it necessarily trained by the guys going for max production?)

A warrior costs 15h.
And you are right, it did not have to be necessarily the max production guys who trained it.
Like a proper intelligence agency I try to scare you with worst case scenarios.
Consider this: Apart from us, and the Rabbits everybody else already starts with a warrior. So the chances are good that somebody built a second one. Why? If you were into fast and peaceful scouting, surely a scout would be more helpful. Scouts however, do not count into soldier points.

From turn 7:


Again, one more warrior unit in the world. (Average soldier points rose from 3000 -> 3200). And again not for PAL and not for Templars either.
Unless they popped a warrior from a hut, it is not possible for a civ to produce two warriors in consecutive turns. Which means two different civs, gained a warrior each over the last two turns.
Assuming one is accounted for by the Rabbits (for protection, they started with a scout), either Imperio or Banana runs around with two warriors.
That leaves us as the only unprotected civ in the world.

Originally posted by Zeviz If it wasn't, max production could be an imperialistic CIV training a worker.

Doesn't imperialistic give only 50% for settler production? At least it says so in the civpedia.
The expansive trait gives 25% boost on workers. That would imply Imperio.
Say they did not settle on an extra hammer tile and had a forest tile in the first ring for altogether 3hpt. The 25% bonus does not do them any good in the first turns. Then they pop their borders, can work a 3hpt tile, therefore jump to 4hpt and get +1hpt from the expansive boost. I would assign that a high probability.
Thanks for pointing that out, Zeviz.

Also Rabbits gained a tech, as can be seen from the in-game score, but again no military relevant tech.
We have to look out for the first religions to fall. I guess one has to check the in-game log for the message, as they surely fade away after the first RB player has logged in?

I hope the game historian keeps track of the early moves for comparison. Would be interesting to see how far off the mark these conclusions are.

mh

[Zeviz]

So if Imperio is training an Expansive-powered worker, that would leave Rabbits and Banana as the two teams with Warriors. It would be pretty impressive if we deduced everybody's starting strategy from the Demographics screen.

[ruff_hi]

you should also look at the top 5 cities screen - one city is size 1, others are all size 1. 2 were founded in 4000BC, others founded in 3960BC. I also placed a possible city location sign up on the ice were all of those food resources are.

[mostly-harmless]

Made a screenshot of the demo screen and will post some info tomorrow.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Thanks Ruff for pointing out the Top 5 city screen.
Luckily it confirms what we already guessed about the founding dates.

For turn 8 the situation is as follows:


Also the current in game points are:
PAL 41 (previous turn 37)
Rabbits 37 (37)
Banana 37 (37)
Imperio 31 (31)
Templar 31 (31)
RealmsBeyond 31 (31)

PAL are the only ones with a score increase by 4.
This is consistent with gaining one additional pop point.
We can confirm this by looking at the Top5 city screen, where one city (founded in the initial turn) has size 2.
Also PAL as the leader in soldier points with 5000 up to the last turn, now gained 1000 additional points which are awarded if a city goes from size 1 to 2.
And finally the drop of the Approval rate from 83 to 71 is only possible with 5 happy faces & 2unhappy faces (size2).

Furthermore, we know that PAL was among the first to research their first tech. Also they have grown rather quickly which implies they are the ones with 5fpt from the beginning. Apart from food gaining events there is no other way to grow to size 2 in 8 turns as the 22food are needed for the pop growth.
If you recall the analysis of the Life Expectancy I did, evidence implied that one civ already picked up 2 unhealthy points at size 1 suggesting either jungles or floodplains or a combination of both.
Now the value for the worst civ life expectancy has changed from 71 to 62 (again the only way to get 62 with size 2 is by picking up 3unhealthines). PAL being the only civ that can be the cause are the ones with the increased unhealthiness.
My money is therefore on floodplains being worked since the beginning by PAL (additional unhealthiness, early tech, 3fpt tile for fast growth)
Now I am a bit puzzled, as to what PAL did with their second tile, as there is no increase in fpt suggesting they are working a 0/?/? tile. There is an improvement in hammers from 1hpt to 2hpt for the worst civ. Suggesting a 0/1/? tile. (1hpt from before the grothw would be consistent with a non-hill city tile & flood plains)
Funnily there is no change in the GNP numbers. But this can be due to rounding issues. (anyone know how the rounding for the rival average is done for GNP, MFG , Food?)
For example a 19-16-16-16-16 distribution would give an average of 16.6=17. This might have been the case prior to PAL growth.
And now we can have a situation up to 19-19-16-16-16 which also gives an average of 17.2=17.
So PAL works a 0/1/3 tile or a 0/1/2 tile. Suggestions? Gold on a desert tile maybe, which would be consistent with the presence of flood plains.
This analysis of course assumes they keep on working the floodplains.


Ok, enough of that.
The change in soldier points is clear. PAL as the best rival civ got up to 6000 by the growth. And the Templars increased their soldier points from 1000 to 2000 by getting another Quecha going.

Any comments are welcome.

mh

[regoarrarr]

I don't really have any constructive comments but I do want to say that I really enjoy these analyses

[mostly-harmless]

Thanks.
It certainly is more fascinating than watching a scout move three tiles in a week.
I hope it keeps peoples interest going for this game until it gets a bit more complex.

mh

[Kylearan]

Hi,

Originally posted by mostly-harmless
It certainly is more fascinating than watching a scout move three tiles in a week.

-Kylearan

[mostly-harmless]

I do have the screenshots for turn 9 but won't have time for an analysis.
I am also away til Friday, so if someone else could please provide the screenshots (demographics, top5 cities, ingame score) for the turns I am missing, to keep this thread going.
I normally try to do the screenshots as late as possible in the turn to give teams time to assign tiles and stuff.

Thanks.

mh

[Sullla]

So did this fall by the wayside? I'm sure it was a lot of work, but it was far more interesting metagaming the Demogame than actually playing the darn thing!

I don't mind logging on and taking Demographics screenshots if needed. I'm not qualified to do the analysis, however; mostly_harmless was much better at that.

[mostly-harmless]

I have the data from turn 9.
Then there is a gap of around 3-4 turns, since I went on a business trip.
If I find the time I will update the thread.
But it becomes increasingly more difficult to derive what has happened as the game progresses.
Nevertheless, I will see what I can get.
Tonight, Germany plays in the European Championship, so don't hold your breath.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

OK,
I will try to make some sense of the sparse data I have.
Anyone providing screenies for turns 10-13???

Continuing with Turn9, which is easy as nothing happened.
Same situation as Turn8.


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The next info I have is from the civstat-log for Turn11 stating that Templars increased their in game points to 37, a raise by 6, implying a tech gained. We know from the event-log that Buddhism was founded that turn, so that is in character with the Templars being religious crazy.
For some reason they did not choose to found Christianity, as religion choosing is activated.
A size 1 capital for the Templars researching either Polytheism (143beakers) or Meditation (114beakers) in 11 turns. Since it would have shown up in the GNP graph if they were getting 13bpt and that would mean working a ?/?/4 tile, which is unlikely (even impossible?) it is safe to assume the Templars went for Meditation .

************************************************** *****************

Civstat-log for Turn12 finally sees us getting AH and 6 ingame points increase to 37.
TeamBanana grows to size 2 (ingame score increase 37-41) and PAL gets another tech (ingame score increase 41-47).
PAL which we know has settled in place gains a second tech within 6 turns either by research (helped along with having an additional tile to work since turn8) or by a hut.

************************************************** *****************

Civstat-log for Turn13 shows no increase in ingame points, so nothing can be derived from that.

************************************************** *****************

For Turn14 I have the demographics screen again.

The Rabbits got their second tech in. (ingame score 37-43),
Imperio still sits at 31 points!
Ok, we have already assumed that Imperio is working on a Expansive powered worker, hence the non-growth. We now can assume that they at least get 9bpt if not 10bpt. Further assuming they have not settled in place but lost a turn on moving the settler, they still are going for an expensive first tech like we do. At least a tech that costs 118beakers.
If they settled in place and got a good commerce tile to work (?/?/2) they could spend 11bpt since 14 turns, bringing them up 154beakers.

Going back to the demo screen. Both PAL and Banana have a second tile they can work. We see an increase in GNP for the best (19->23) and the worst rival (16->18), also we see an increase in Food Production for the best rival (5->7) and worst rival (2->5) and we see a decrease in production for the best rival (5->4) and the worst rival (2->1). This is comparing turn 9 (only PAL at size 2) with Turn14 (PAL & Banana at size 2).
Now it does not necessarily mean that those three observations can only be assigned to PAL and Banana, in fact the food production score for the worst rival is definitely not either of them. this is just the one civ that worked a no food tile changing to a 3 food tile after having built whatever they have built.
But still it can be seen, that at least one of either PAL or Banana further emphasizes food. 7fpt at size 2 is still 3fpt in excess. Probably they have two good health resources available or have netted fish already.

Soldier points next.
Templars still sit at 2000 points with their two Quechas and Meditation as a military-irrelevant tech.
There has been a lot of increase in the turns 9-14.
Banana got at 1000 points from pop increase, I assume PAL got additional 2000 points from a tech like Hunting or Mining and of course teams will go on building warriors.
The soldier points become harder to decipher as there are so many options available.

************************************************** *****************

Turn15, again only the civstat-log, revealing that Templars increase ingame points from 37 to 41 revealing a growth to size 2.

************************************************** *****************

Turn16 finally sees Imperio jumping to 37 ingame points. They spend 15-16 turns (depending on whether they moved the settler) on their first tech. Even with working a crappy 0 commerce tile, they would still have amassed 15turns x 9bpt = 135beakers. That's a worst case scenario (for them). In an ideal Imperio world they settled in place, found a nice ?/?/2 tile to work and amassed 16turns x 11bpt = 176beakers.
Now, Imperio started with Myst & Mining. The only techs that fall into the range of 135 - 176beakers are either
Polytheism 143beakers - but this is not it, since no religion was founded this turn.(At least it did not show up in the event log, although one Imperio player has logged in already)
or Bronze Working with 171beakers. I cannot see any other option. So my view on the Imperio strategy is getting out a expansive worker, beelining Bronze Working and hoping for copper in the BFC.
This is confirmed by a quick look at the demoscreen, revealing 11000 soldier points, quite a jump. BW gives exactly 8000 points, this together with the 3000 points Imperio started with (1 warrior & Mining) and voila!


Furthermore the Rabbits grow their capital to size 2.
And will you please look at the food production number. 10fpt!!! at size 2. What is that? Two working boats out there already? Remember that there is that team with loads of water tiles surrounding them. We will soon see, who that is as 6 excess food will lead to the next pop increase in around 5-6 turns.


Ok, that's it.
Quick summary:
PAL, off to a good start, settled in place, most likely with lots of land tiles. Got themselves two early techs. Were first to grow with a very fast pace.

Banana, moved their settler, got one tech researched and have grown to size 2 pretty fast. I am almost convinced that they are the ones with the seafood start (only 5 land tiles to work!)

Rabbits, have researched two techs already and have recently grown to size 2.

Templars, founder of Buddhism, recently grown to size 2.

Imperio, on a rush footing I believe, just researched BW and have gone for a expansive fueled worker. If they have copper in the BFC, we don't want to run into their units any time soon.

Enjoy,
mh.

@sooooo: can you please make a screenshot of the ingame score table, the religion screen, the top 5 cities and the demographics table, each time you finish a turn? As a back up. Many thanks.