Cloak & Dagger

[Sullla]

Not much going on for T49. No score increase for any teams, no Power changes (no units built), and Imperio and Templars are both working the same tiles as before. Only difference is that the Templar GNP went up by three points (from 28 to 31), which suggests that they are now researching a tech discounted by having at least one prerequisite. Likely candidates are Pottery (from Agriculture) and Bronze Working (from Mining). Hopefully they are silly enough to continue delaying BW, which every other team has had for 20+ turns now.

Imperio also did not log in and play their last turn, so their settler is still sitting in the same spot as before. If we had some kind of resource, we could probably kill them before they even logged into the game and found out what was happening.

[mostly-harmless]

I need to correct Sulllas statement:
1. Banana got a score increase by 6, implying a tech researched.
2. Imperio did log in for turn 48 (according to civstat) and more importantly did log in this turn (T49) and founded their second city in a nice spot. (Also getting a score increase by 5 accordingly).

In other news Templars settler must have finished this turn (according to our intel).

mh

[Sullla]

I was logged into the game last night when the turn rolled over, and there was no score increase displayed for Banana. I guess it doesn't update automatically if you're already logged in (?)

Imperio definitely did NOT play their turn (on T48), because the clock ticked all the way down to zero. They did play this turn and found a new city though, as mostly_harmless mentioned. I think part of the confusion is that when I say nothing happened, I'm referring to the Demographics screen/graphs, which don't get updated until the turn AFTER the one currently being played. So it would be more correct to say that little happened on T48, which is the prior turn.

I was hoping that Imperio would push their settler a little further south, just to screw over the Templars completely, but they took a great spot just southeast of Mutal. They could have been there last turn if they'd bothers to move though.

[mostly-harmless]

It seems to me that Imperio often logs in, move their units but do not finish their turn by pressing "Enter", which is a bit annoying.
As I said, civstat shows they logged in for turns 47 & 48 & 49.

Anyway, fact is they have a nice second city, which will get the 2nd ring pop in 10 turns from the free monument.

mh

[Sullla]

Rabbits have researched a tech this turn (T50). But the bigger news is that the Templars completed a fifth quechua last turn (T49). They have four of them wandering around our borders, and the fifth one presumably is in their capital. Does that mean that the Templars interrupted a settler build to squeeze out more quechuas? They should have finished their settler by now, but we've seen no sign of it to the east or west of Jerusalem. I have trouble believing that the Templars would be intending to plant a city directly north of their capital...

Essentially, the question is whether or not we think the Templars are planning on attacking us. Building a fifth quechua seems pretty dubious already. If they should train a sixth one, I think it removes all doubt. They cannot take any cities, naturally, but pillaging could be troublesome. We should try to discourage them diplomatically from such a suicidal course of action. An early rush is only going to take both of our teams completely out of the competition.

[mostly-harmless]

Quick update for T51. PAL finally made contact with Imperio.

mh

[Sullla]

More info for turn 51:

Our score went up by 10 points, 6 of those are from researching Fishing and the other 4 are from Pink Dot growing to size 2. Imperio received 4 points because Mutal (their capital) has grown to size four. PAL picked up 6 points, so they have learned another tech (Hunting, based on what they told us). Finally, Banana gained 4 points, so one of their two cities has grown another size (capital 2-> 3?)

In other news, our GNP went up from 21 to 26 merely from researching a tech with no prerequisites (Fishing) to one with two known prerequisites (Pottery). Our actual beaker count was completely unchanged, 12/turn. Our Food/Production stats continue to compare favorably to our competitors, at least until PAL recovers from their whippings. The Templars are way, way behind everyone else because they still only have 1 city at size 3 while everyone else has multiple cities.

In Soldier count, we went up by 1000 points from reaching six population points (4 + 2). Imperio went up 5000 points last turn (T50) - what does this tell us? Well, we know that they gained 1000 points from reaching four population points (3 + 1). The other 4000 cannot come from a tech, because they did not get a score increase last turn. That only leaves a soldier increase from buildings or units; there are no logical choices from the buildings, meaning it must come from the latter. I check the unit list, and a resourceless Mayan Holkar is worth 4000 points. Perfect! Imperio therefore now has two warriors and one holkar in terms of military.

(Second double-check: Imperio finished their settler on T46. They have been getting 7 shields/turn in the capital, so it should take four turns to build a holkar (25 shields) and appear on T50. This also lines up perfectly.)

I've gone ahead and edited this info into our thread on Imperio. mostly_harmless, I also have the complete list of unit value for BTS 3.17's Soldier count. It's in the original post where we brought this up, and also reposted here:

2000 - Warrior, Quecha, Galley
3000 - Archer, Trireme, Caravel
4000 - Spearman, Holkar, Chariot, War Chariot, Galleon, Airship,
5000 - Catapult
6000 - Axeman, Swordsman, Horse Archer, Pikeman, Landsknecht, Longbow, Privateer, Guided Missile
7000 - Crossbow, Cho-Ko-Nu
8000 - Trebuchet, War Elephant, Frigate
9000 - Maceman, Musketman, Oromo Warrior
10000 - Knight, Ship of the Line
12000 - Cannon, Cuirassier, Grenadier, Ironclad, Fighter
14000 - Rifleman, Machine Gun, Missile Cruiser, Anti-Tank
15000 - Cavalry
16000 - Transport, Carrier, Bomber
18000 - SAM Infantry, Artillery
20000 - Infantry, Stealth Bomber
22000 - Mobile SAM
24000 - Jet Fighter
26000 - Gunship, Mobile Artillery
28000 - Marine, Submarine
30000 - Tank, Paratrooper, Destroyer, Attack Submarine, Stealth Destroyer, Tactical Nuke
32000 - Mechanized Infantry
40000 - Modern Armor, Battleship, ICBM

For comparison, here is the list of units as it used to be when we started the game (3.13):

1000 soldiers – Warrior, Quechua
2000 soldiers – Spearman, Archer, Chariot
3000 soldiers – Axeman

[Sullla]

Update for T52: Imperio landed six points and therefore picked up a tech - one that did not give them Soldier points. Based on the fact that it took them 8 turns to research, and knowing what techs they already had, I am about 90% sure that they picked up Pottery. The only other option was Masonry, but they should have learned that in 7 turns, not 8, because they had both pre-requisites for Masonry and only one for Pottery. It's also more logical for them to go after Pottery than Masonry at this point.

PAL went up 12 points, then whipped away 4 of them. This could mean that all three of their cities went up in size by one, or it could mean that they picked up some land points, or even that they got a Classical era tech (although that seems unlikely). mostly_harmless, can you tell me what you think? You're better with the score tables than I am.

Nothing new in terms of tiles worked by our neighbors or Soldier count. If I had to guess, I'd say that Imperio is building a second worker at one of their two cities right now. I really don't know that the Templars are working on. I believe that they finished a settler a couple turn ago, but we still haven't seen any sign of it yet. They are ridiculously behind everyone else's growth curve by now...

[mostly-harmless]

Yes, PAL's increase by 12 points was puzzling me as well, because they are not due for land points yet.
However, digging into the population points reveals that indeed all three of their cities have grown that turn.
More specifically, "The Warning" now size 3, Thebes now size 2, Memphis now size 2.
And, as you already mentioned, they whipped away one pop point from one of their size 2 cities (can't say which one for sure, but my money is on Memphis, as it appears to have more food available).

EDIT: Looks like the game got reset for this turn. So PAL has yet to re-whip. (Their score was reset to 121)
EDIT2: From the Pitboss Connection thread, it appears that the game was reset because a team screwed up choosing a religion this turn. This can only mean Imperio, right? Since they are the only ones gaining a tech, unless they got their Great Prophet already?

mh

[Sullla]

Imperio cannot have founded a religion, not unless something really strange happened. Here's our chart of their research so far:

Begin with Mysticism and Mining
T1 Researching BW
T16 BW -> Agriculture (?) [not certain, but this is the only possible logical choice]
T23 Agriculture -> AH
T34 AH -> Wheel
T41 Wheel -> Hunting
T45 Hunting discovered
T52 Pottery (?)

They don't have a single tech from the monk branch of the tree as yet. Imperio also finished Stonehenge 16 turns ago, not nearly long enough to produce a Great Prophet. Templars researched Wheel only five turns ago, so it's not them either.

Honestly, I wonder if Snoopy may have made a mistake and posted in the wrong forum. According to my charts, no one should have founded a religion this turn... Maybe someone on the other continent? I guess we will find out soon enough though.

[mostly-harmless]

It appears Imperio did found Islam (remember religion choosing is on) in their second city Lakhama!
That city is now getting 6cpt, not bad for a second city. Templars will be delighted to hear that their juicy land in the NE is rapidly covered by Imperios culture. :-)
But it sure is puzzling how Imperio achieved this.

This is my statement from turn 11:
A size 1 capital for the Templars researching either Polytheism (143beakers) or Meditation (114beakers) in 11 turns. Since it would have shown up in the GNP graph if they were getting 13bpt and that would mean working a ?/?/4 tile, which is unlikely (even impossible?) it is safe to assume the Templars went for Meditation .
If I screwed that one up, then Templars did not get their first religion from Meditation but from Polytheism, researched or popped Masonry from a hut and went for Monotheism to get their second religion. Which means Meditation was still available for grabs. If that is the case, surely Imperio was rather surprised!
Sullla, please try to run the GNP numbers again for Templars to check if they could have gotten to Polytheism in 11 turns.


In other news, the impressive growth in PALs three cities, is due to an event ("post war baby boom" - is that really linked to ending a war?). Check the event log. A good example how events can be pretty unbalancing in the early turns.

mh

[Sullla]

Meditation was still available?! God, I *HATE* the "choose religion" option. All it does is make everything more confusing. And do we seriously have events turned on for this game?! Someone... well, enough said. You all know how I feel about the organizers of this game by now.

mh, to answer your question - yes, it is possible. We know the Templars were working a 1/1/1 plains river tile to start the game, presumably for the extra commerce. Every civ starts with 9 commerce (8 from the Palace, 1 from the center tile) so with the plains river tile, they were getting 10 beakers. When the research algorithm goes through, 1 beaker is always added to the displayed output, because you always get at least one beaker every turn. This is meaningless outside the early game, but for the purposes of this exercise, the Templars were getting 11 beakers/turn to start.

Now because the Templars started with Mysticism, they got a pre-requisite discount on researching Polytheism. We can therefore determine that their true beaker output was (11 * 1.2 = 13.2) -> 13 beakers/turn in the early going. And 13 beaker/turn over 11 turns = 143 beakers: the exact cost of Polytheism. They threw us all for a loop by selecting Buddhism instead of Hinduism, so we assumed that they had gone after Meditation. Heh.

On turn 21, the Templars then pop a tech from a hut, which we know can assuredly state was Masonry. They just finished AH research that same turn, so went ahead and researched Monotheism next, which was finished on T34. (For having both pre-requisites of Monotheism, Templars got a 40% bonus on research, so 11 * 1.4 = 15 beaker/turn, over 13 turns = 195, which is right around the cost of the tech.) Everyone else probably assumed (like we did) that they had taken the first two religions, when in reality the cheapest one was still sitting there. So Imperio TOTALLY lucked into a religion at almost no cost at all. If we had started with Mysticism, we would have been able to see it ourselves. At least PAL didn't get the religion - they had it there fore the taking with their Mysticism starting tech!

Oy. We in the Cloak and Dagger department got fooled on this one. But at least now we've updated the charts with the correct data now.

And the Templars are *REALLY* screwed now, if they weren't already. That's what you get for not expanding though!

[mostly-harmless]

Ack. I knew about the possibility of religion choosing but was fooled by the prerequisite bonus. It does not show up in the GNP graph & numbers, right?

Although, our decision making was not really affected by that wrong analysis, I nevertheless offer my resignation from the Cloak & Dagger department if the team wants it.

mh

[Sullla]

I should mention that the info on the first page of the Templar/Imperio threads has been updated again. Everyone can get a quick check on what we know about the other teams by looking there, instead of having to dig through this thread.

For those who want the full story, here's the reference chart I've been using, in Excel format:

http://www.garath.net/Sullla/Civ4/ADGStats.xls

I've edited this into the first post of the Cloak and Dagger thread, and will try to upload an updated version every week of so. It took a while to put together initially, but adding new entries once each turn is pretty easy. And fun too - I've always wondered how much info you could glean from the Demographics if you REALLY pushed it.

[mostly-harmless]

Thanks.
In fact I have a set of Excel tables, that look very much the same. My info on the cities development is a bit more detailed, so I will keep maintaining it.

Looking back at 2000 years Cloak & Dagger, I believe it served a good purpose in keeping people interested in the usually somewhat monotone early turns.

mh