Turn 244: 1270 AD

[Aeson]

Originally posted by DeepO
Oh, I'm off to bed, but could someone please go over my calculations, and confirm I'm not wrong in my assumptions?

It looks good. The only thing I could add is that in that number of attacks there probably were at least a few retreats from attacking Infantry. So I'd think the numbers would be slightly more in favor for GoW, though if Lego attacked with Cavalry it would be back around even.

------------

Everyone is going to be overlooking something. I'm not sure GoW is planning to use Settlers that as they only have 4 Settlers along. That doesn't mean MZ wouldn't be aware of it as a possibility though. Same thing with Cavalry. I'd assume MZ would think of it, but it can't hurt to mention it.

[Aeson]

I'm driving up to Utah early tomorrow morning. So here's my take...

I think we should scope out Quanto with the N Marine stack or with the Explorer (move 6 should uncover it... Explorers see 2 tiles right?). It at least diverts a few Lego units next turn. If it is empty, definitely try to take out the blockade. If it shows a unit, do we have enough cash to investigate?

To get through the blockade I think our best bet is to make sure we kill all the BB HP's we can with our 2/4 DD. Sending it up against a 1/4 BB may end up with us with 2 DD HPs just wasting and not helping the assault. So I think if we can get a shot at the 4/4 BB with our 2/4 DD that would be good, or hit it when/if it's 3/4 and uncovered. The drawback is if we lose, the 4/4 BB will end up having 5 HP overall almost for sure, so it's close either way. We increase the risk of a promotion for Lego, but increase our chances of doing enough damage to get through.

So chain across the 8 Artillery. Bombard the 5/5 BB and uncover the 4/4 BB (should defend before the 4/5 BB). If we have 7 Artillery left to fire at that point, bombard the 4/4 BB with Fighters trying to take off 1 HP. If we are at 6 or fewer Artillery left to fire, attack with the 2/4 DD.

Then finish bombarding with the Artillery. If we uncover the 4/4 BB at 2/4 and still have our 2/4 DD we would definitely need to hit at that point. Once we only have Transports left, if Lego's blockade is down to 2-5 BB HPs left (including the upgrade for the 4/4 BB) then try to break through with our Transports. (Follow the path the DD took.)

If Lego's blockade has 6+ HPs left, or at any time we fall behind being able to possibly get them down to that level with our Artillery, Fighters, and DD, call it off.

If we do get through we are guaranteed to be able to have at least 2 Transports full of units we can bring to bear. Our 11 Transports are 2 moves away from the blockade, so will have 2 moves left after attacking. To get through we have to kill 2 or 3 BB with Transports meaning at least 2 Transports survive.

The S group Transports can make it to where the N group Transports will be attacking from, Quanto 11. So we don't have to load troops until after the attacks.

-------------

If we get to Quanto with 2 Transports of mostly Tanks/Settlers we will be able to do a rather large amount of damage. There is a city overlapping with Quanto even, so maybe it's reachable without a Settler even. If we take Quanto just barely with 2 Transports of Marines we still can raze the city, which should pay off quickly. If we can't get through the Blockade we lose up to 8 Artillery shots at Abilene, which could be pretty valuable, and up to 11 Transports and a DD.

We can get through 4 Infantry in Quanto with 16 Marines at 50% odds. Anything more than that and we wouldn't want to try. Otherwise I think it's a good gamble.

[Aeson]

If Lego's blockade has 6+ HPs left, or at any time we fall behind being able to possibly get them down to that level with our Artillery, Fighters, and DD, call it off.

I'm not sure on this. The odds I'm using factor in upgrades, 2/3rds of which Lego can't get. At 6 BB HPs left we'd have around 20% odds of getting through with those upgrades... so probably 30-40% without. So maybe go as high as 7 BB HPs.

[Cort Haus]

ND can investigate Lego cities for GoW. Are we saying that if GoW can take Fort Stanwix, chain over 8 Cav, and do some settler-hopping they can reach several undefended cities? If so, how many settlers would they need?

Seeing as Abelieine has more than enough defenders in it, I'd have thought that Fort Stanwix would easily have enough to soak up whatever GoW has left that it could attack with.

[Cort Haus]

If GoW were to take cities, especially Legopolis, they should be trashed, as I can't see them being defendable. I'd love to see Lego's luxury slider with Sistine and Bach reduced to 'dust and asheses'.

[vulture]

Doing simulations with 8 artillery, 2 fighters 2 2/4 DDs and 11 trannies vs a 5/5 BB and 4/4 BB, we have about 75% chance to get through them (75.3% in my calculation). Most likely result is losing both DDs and 5 trannies, although the no. of trannies lost is highly variable.

That's predicated on using arty and fighters to bombard until both are down to 1 hp (or we run out of bombard units) and then DDs, then trannies.

[alva]

For unit calculations, would it be a bad idea to have a spy with GoW ( and vice versa)?

That way we (and them) would be better equipped to see what Lego did, no?

[vulture]

Aeson, I'm not seeing the logic of your idea to attack with the DDs when there is 6 hp of BB left to attack. Is it simply that since it is a 50/50 fight, each DD is likely to do 2 hp of damage (on average) before dying, and therefore bombarding down to 1 hp and attacking with a DD is inefficient use of artillery units?

[DeepO]

Sorry I haven't been around for the better part of the day. I'm here now, and will continue on where I was last night.

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Cort Haus
ND can investigate Lego cities for GoW. [quote]
We'll have to think more carefully about this, but let's get the rest of the plan ready first. Can ND investigate cheaper than we can?
Only two cities need to be investigated: Jackson and Dye fields. The thing is, in case the losses of GoW are worse than expected, no investigation is going to help.

Are we saying that if GoW can take Fort Stanwix, chain over 8 Cav, and do some settler-hopping they can reach several undefended cities?

If I'm right, and all the other cities are completely empty (it surely looks that way), GoW can take 8 cities with 8 cavs. They can take out the whole North, apart from Jackson, Castlea (which has already been bombed), and Dye fields.

If so, how many settlers would they need?

No more then already present: 5. I'll work on a precise plan for them once I do the rest.

Seeing as Abelieine has more than enough defenders in it, I'd have thought that Fort Stanwix would easily have enough to soak up whatever GoW has left that it could attack with.

Yeah, my idea as well. I'm glad we investigated the city. It proves that Lego is anxious about a naval assault. They made a mistake (they might have made two with blocking Quanto), in that they put a force in Abilene which we would never attack, while a few less infs on our side would mean the same thing. We would not have attacked a 45 inf city either. Those 5 infs can make the difference in Stanwix.

I think Lego has more fear of us than of GoW. But if we work together, we're basically equally dangerous.

DeepO

[DeepO]

I'll go over Aeson's plans in much more detail in a while. When I read everything here, I'll move one marine next to Quanto, to see what's in that city. If it's not empty (I doubt it, but you never know), we can decide whether we want to investigate it or not. I'm not convinced we should.... and the main reason is money.

Look at it this way: we currently have enough gold to expose Lego's spy. If we investigate, I'm not sure, but I fear we will be a couple of gold short. However: Legopolis not only has Bach and Smith's, but also the Lego CIA... no CIA, no new spy!

BTW, does anyone have any idea, or wants to test if destroying the CIA also kills the spies of that civ? Otherwise, we don't need to spend >300 g on exposure...

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
If GoW were to take cities, especially Legopolis, they should be trashed, as I can't see them being defendable. I'd love to see Lego's luxury slider with Sistine and Bach reduced to 'dust and asheses'.

I think so too, however I've got to give it more thought before really having a fixed position in this. There might be a way that the combination of pillaging and defense makes it possible to have at least one turn of safety for GoW.

Legpolis has to be trashed anyway, IIRC (I don't have the save open atm). They need to relocate the city with a settler in order to reach another city (kloreepville?) with a cav. Besides, much too dangerous to keep those 2 wonders in reach of Lego.

O, AFAICS, Lego will not run into major happiness problems. But if 8 cities are gone, they will experience delay on the tech, which is good for us.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by alva
For unit calculations, would it be a bad idea to have a spy with GoW ( and vice versa)?

That way we (and them) would be better equipped to see what Lego did, no?

Interesting idea!

We should run it by them, though. And at this moment, we're not swimming in cash either.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by vulture
Aeson, I'm not seeing the logic of your idea to attack with the DDs when there is 6 hp of BB left to attack. Is it simply that since it is a 50/50 fight, each DD is likely to do 2 hp of damage (on average) before dying, and therefore bombarding down to 1 hp and attacking with a DD is inefficient use of artillery units?

I think this is it, yes. But I haven't looked into this in detail... at a glance, we should get the DD to attack the vet BB, and leave the elites for the transports, as otherwise the vet is going to promote for sure.

BTW, if we would get lucky here, we might have a couple more transports ready to transport tanks and settlers (we would only have 4 settlers to work with, though. 4 will be left behind on Stormia in order to take 8 art, and 1 needs to found our first city on Legoland). In that case, the FP is ours...

DeepO

[DeepO]

Well, as expected, Lego is playing flawlessly this will be quite the challange. Depending on the number of our tanks that Lego destroyed we can know if taking Ft. Stanwick is viable or not, we will have available - barring significant naval losses which is unlikely - 20 bombers and 27 artilleries which could hit the city, and then barrage it with whatever units we still have standing.

Taking Stanwix would basically open the door for our remaining 40+ tanks and we could with settlers perhaps reach Legopolis. But 20 Infs are 20 Infs and it's likely that Dye Fields and Jackson house the remaining Infs making it pretty pointless to attack them.

Lego's attack likely left the Marines untouched. That's 34 units which are pretty much expendable at this point and could sufficiently damage the defenders. The infantry are likely damaged from artillery and tank attack. If our 16 tanks end up undamaged then I'd say there's a chance to take the city after a 47-unit bombardment. I'll do some calculations in a while.

As a very very very backup plan, we'll likely resort to building more carriers and bombers and just bomb them back into the stone age, that should at least screw their chances of winning the game.

I'll see what else comes to my mind in the next couple of hours and I'll PM you guys later.

-MZ

Just copying it here, to keep everything in one thread. I'll respond in detail later. MZ is vagely familiar with the settler blitzing concept, but obviously not so focused on this as we have been. I'll draw him a detailed plan later.

But first, replaying the save up to the point we're at now, and having a little walk to Quanto.

BTW, does anyone know the answer to Aeson's question: do explorers see 2 tiles? I don't know, but it would be important to know in case we can get through the Q-blockade

DeepO

[DeepO]

CH, in the mean time, could you ask MZ again if they had marines on Stormia?

Also, could you ask them if they still have cavs left, or need to build these from scratch? They will need 8 cavs ready next turn, if they can break through, they simply have to risk it.

DeepO