Turn 244: 1270 AD

[Aeson]

Do we know where RP is?

[Aeson]

Yah, I forgot the Tanks were all still on boats... that sucks.

[DeepO]

This last idea changes a lot. Lego has 27 tanks left, maybe all of them blitzed, and present in Stanwix. GoW could have lost all its tanks in the attack (we can assume Lego built another 20 tanks, meaning at least 47 attacks, with at least 28 successful ones (1 elite battle won for the army). the other 20 tanks will have damaged infs. So, this leaves GoW with 34 marines, 27 art, and a couple of damaged infs to take 27 tanks.

Without Stanwix, GoW can't threaten Dye or Jackson other than with the tanks already present. If no tanks remain (Lego could have spotted this), those 2 cities could have been kept nearly empty, only needing some protection from chained marines. Meaning that Stanwix has e.g. 27 tanks, 30 infs... and the 2 others have 10 infs each.

Basically, if that is the case, the landing on GoW's side has failed, they have to regroup, and try it again.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Aeson
Do we know where RP is?

Yes, near our coast... at least 3 turns from reaching Legoland. I can't tell you perfectly right now, as I still have the investigation of Abilene open (do I need that anymore? don't think so)

DeepO

[DeepO]

Hum, that doom scenario of above can't happen, I think. those 27 arts could bomb Dye or Jackson, which means they need more then 10 infs to protect against chaining marines. But still, I think it would possibly be very close to preventing GoW from taking a city this turn.

DeepO

[Aeson]

It's better than if the landing failed on our side at least. We wouldn't have been able to make it back... GoW could load up and land again in a turn or two just about as strong as they were.

I think we have 2 real options right now.

Bunker down and put everything in our city... keep Lego busy until GoW and RP can weigh in. Arty/Bomb around our city in the coming turns.

The other option (which could be tried first without too much cost even if we fail) is to hit Quanto. If they have anything of note defending there we can't do it though.

[DeepO]

Huh... more doom (doom III ? )
Lego only needed 2 subs, to take out the last chainer of GoW. No chainer --> no more marines. No more marines --> empty Dye and Jackson and put all troops in Stanwix. Next turn, GoW either fleas, or is eradicated on Legoland.

I doubt that, though, as otherwise we would have seen even more troops in Abilene

Tell me when I'm getting too paranoid, but I think Lego had plenty of reason to keep us from reading the GoW battle report.

DeepO

[DeepO]

I agree, those are about the only 2 options we've got left. We could move our stack onto a hill instead of building it where it is now (but that would basically do no good to our defense next turn, when we most need it). We could move a couple of transports South. But those are only a couple of variations on the theme.

There is one major disadvantage in all of this: next turn, or the one after that, Lego is going to have radio. Meaning their cities are going to be 100% harder to get, and on top of that all their units are going to get a 25% bonus from radar towers.

DeepO

[alva]

Putting pressure on Lego would be the best course of action this turn though IMO. ( destrying anything is a bonus ).

Note that Abilene did not have any food surplus. ( Not very important, I know. )
Hmm, do we have a bomber anywhere near to go after the Cow tile?

[DeepO]

we do not have any bombers at all, alva. We've got 2 fighters, one can reach the cow, the other can't.

The site we are currently on, is not ideal. At any moment, Lego can put 62 art in Abilene, and bomb our defenders, exposing our tanks. Their tanks can always reach us (just as we can always reach Abilene), so the longer it takes, the fewer tanks we're going to have on Legoland. If they block our harbor with BBs we can't get rubber there. If they put a couple of fighters on air superiority, we can't use our transports to send reinforcements (i'm not sure how it exactly works, but I have seen the message of 'can't transport troops because of fighter acitivity more then once)

We risk getting into a war of attrition, which we simply can never win against them. Meanwhile, they build their forces, and invade us.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Anyway... we can debate this for a while of course, but before taking a final decision we should have a word with GoW. They have to be at the same level as us, or this will never work.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Would it help to give MZ a report on what we know, and what we fear right now? After all, more opinions means more thoughts. Maybe they can help us as well, even at this early point in the turn.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Hmmm... I'll start on one. We can decide later if we're going to send it now or not.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Hey, with writing that report, I saw something we nearly forgot... why wouldn't we investigate Fort Stanwix? It only costs 38 gold (size 1).

We might even recuperate those costs from GoW or ND, as otherwise somebody needs to investigate the city anyway.

DeepO

[DeepO]

proposed (partial) report to GoW:

GoW,
this is, what we can see now, the situation. First of all some non-Lego problem: we are without rubber. Fixing the game diplomaticaly has cancelled our deal. Please send us rubber next turn, as otherwise we're back to building rifles and knights.

screenshot of our area:


The following has happened:
- Lego has pillaged all roads next to our stack including the settler. This was perfectly as expected. As a result, we can only threaten Abilene over land.
- Lego has razed Tipperary. No more threat there.
- Lego is blocking the naval access to Abilene, and Quanto. Both blockades are not perfect, in that we've got a good chance of breaking through if we chain arts to Legoland, and use our transports to attack 1/4 BBs or 1/4 DDs. It would however destroy most of our transport capability to get through, and there is no certain way of success.
- we still have a spy in Legoland, they did not expose him (whether they tried or not is unknown)

Legoland forces:

- 1 settler (one used for fort Stanwix, next to (former?) GoW stack)
- 17 worker (+3)
- 3 horsemen
- 2 explorer (+2 B)
- 6 Cavalry (-6)
- 94 infantry (+3)
- 62 artillery
- 27 Tanks (+0)
- 6 ironclad
- 15 transport
- 1 carrier
- 8 subs (-2)
- 8 DD (-1)
- 9 BB
- 2 fighter (+2 B)
- 3 bomber
- 1 army (!)


On your side, this is what we can currently see:



Fort Stanwix obviously was put down to protect blitzing tanks. But more on that later.

We investigated Abilene:

Cost of investigating Abilene: 209 gold.



troops:
- 1 army of 3 infs
- 50 infs
- 3 cavs
- 8 art
- 2 bombers.

An army means they did attack you, most likely in force. The number of troops left to Lego also suggests that: if they built another 20-odd tanks, they lost those 20 tanks attacking you. Add this to the surviving tanks, and it would be entirely possible that Lego has at least damaged all your infs, and destroyed (the bigger part of) your tanks present on Legoland.

Fort Stanwix has one major strategic advantage: as long as it exists, you will not be able to build a city in the next tile. Which means that unless it is possible to take the city, your tanks en route can't join the fight this turn.

Further, we can assume Lego or Vox has a spy with you, seeing what units you've got waiting. We don't know the precise information, but unless you already have a stack of marines present somewhere, they will know that Dye fields and Jackson can only be attacked by the units you build right now, and 8 at most as you only have 1 possible chainer.

Now it becomes a bit guessing, but given Lego's subs, it is very possible that they even destroyed your 1 TR + 1 DD, making chaining impossible for you. This is one of the points where Lego is very right in not giving 'your' battle report before we have played, as it affects the rest in a great way.

Lego knows how many of your tanks remain on Legoland right now. Add to this the amount of marines you can deliver to Legoland this turn through chaining, or landing (they don't know your fleet has no marines, in case you still have some on Bob as of the end of last turn), and they know very precisely what the maximum force is that can attack Jackson or Dye fields. Marines on Legoland can't join the attack if Fort Stanwix is not destroyed.

In short, if all went perfect for Lego, they can make sure Jackson and Dye fields have a perfect defense (even a horse will eat up a marine attack, so Lego only needs 1 horse more then you can deliver marines to both cities). They can use this info, to make sure Fort Stanwix can't be taken (there are already 27 tanks present, and even if those are all 1/4, you will need at least 27 units to capture and destroy it). With Fort Stanwix, Jackson and Dye fields perfectly safe from you, while Abilene is perfectly safe from us, all their other cities can be empty again.

We are of course not certain about this without the battle report. But it seems Lego has played its turn very well, and our combined invasion has hit a major obstacle.

This is only preliminary, we are still debating what to do
next. Going for Quanto would be nice, with a bit of luck we could take that city. But that's only superficial damage, as it would be extremely hard to keep the city next turn. Going for Abilene is out of the question, we maybe could take the city, but only by losing most of our forces, ending the invasion from our side.

The other option is to retreat from your side, and for us to sit it out while you reinforce your troops, RP gets in landing range, and possibly ND could join us.

So, what do you think?

Oh, and if you could tell us if you had some more marines, we would appreciate it, as it would make the difference here. If Lego's attack was not so successful, this could be a ruse. You could take Fort Stanwix, and with cavs could even take Legopolis if that's not defended properly. Or Fort Stanwix could be nearly empty, while Lego protects the surrounding cities (all of these options would still make it necessary for them to protect Abilene with 50 infs plus an army, as it basically makes sure we are at least 2 turns from taking our first city)

Proposal needs to be adapted. I'm in favour of investigating Fort Stanwix to see what's going on, and adding this info for GoW.

DeepO