Console Wars: The Clone Wars

[DrSpike]

If only the Xbox were as reliable as the Wii and the PS3.

[Asher]

New Xbox coming out in August:

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20080507132302_Microsoft_Gears_Up_to_Release_Xbox_360_with_New_Chips.html

Microsoft Gears Up to Release Xbox 360 with New Chips.
IBM, TSMC Land Orders to Manufacture 65nm Chips for Microsoft Xbox 360

Microsoft Corp. reportedly plans to release a new version its Xbox 360 video game system code-named Jasper in August and has already assigned IBM and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to make chips for the new game console. However, there are other important rumours: TSMC got orders to produce the chip for code-named Valhalla Xbox 360 design, which is rumoured to combine microprocessor and graphics chip in a single piece of silicon.

The code-named Jasper design of the Xbox 360 game console will use ATI Xenos graphics and memory controller hub (GMCH) made using 65nm process at TSMC as well as IBM Xenon central processing unit (CPU) produced at IBM’s 65nm nodes. The new system design is projected to consume less electricity, use less complex cooling systems and also produce less noise.

By contrast, current Xbox 360 design named Falcon utilizes GMCH and eDRAM cores manufactured using 90nm process technology at TSMC as well as CPU built at IBM using 65nm fabrication process. The first-generation Xbox 360 used 90nm chips.

TSMC is chosen to make the 65nm GMCH chips, Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE) is contracted to package and test the chips, and Nanya has won orders to supply flip-chip packaging substrates, reports China Economic News Service.

What is, perhaps, more important than the facts that TSMC again got orders to produce ATI Xenos GMCH and IBM land orders on IBM Xenon CPU at expense of Chartered Semiconductor (which once promised to start making 45nm chips for Advanced Micro Devices in 2009), is that “chips” for next-generation Xbox 360 code-named Valhalla will also be made at TSMC. Earlier rumours transpired that Valhalla features a chip that combines CPU and GMCH. In order to build such chip at TSMC, Microsoft either needs to disclose certain design rules of IBM’s fabrication process to the Taiwan-based semiconductor manufacturer, or completely rework the CPU according to fabrication process of TSMC.

Microsoft did not comment on the news-story.

Microsoft Xbox 360 console is based around triple-core microprocessor developed by IBM, high-definition visual processing unit designed by ATI Technologies, I/O controller engineered by SiS and some other key components. The gaming machine provides a broad set of multimedia capabilities in addition to games. Currently Microsoft Xbox 360 is available for $279, $349 or $449 in the USA depending on the version.

[Verto]

Originally posted by DrSpike
If only the Xbox were as reliable as the Wii and the PS3.

QFT. MS has done a great job with the 360...aside from the ridiculous hardware failures.

[Asher]

I'm a bit shocked they haven't released a redesign yet.

[Asher]

Note: This is an op-ed piece.

http://www.cnet.com/8301-13506_1-9939276-17.html

Why the Xbox 360 will win the console war
Posted by Don Reisinger

Lately, there has been a considerable amount of discussion on which console will win this generation's war. Will it be the Wii with its established base and strong sales? Will it be the Xbox 360 with its steady growth? Or will it be the Playstation 3 with its strong sales over the past few months?

If you ask me, it'll be the Xbox 360.

Now I know what you're thinking -- "how?" The answer is actually quite simple: the Wii is not nearly as strong as some want to believe and Sony's strong growth is the result of a lower hardware price, which is allowing it to catch up to the pack.

Of course, Sony's Kaz Hirai doesn't agree with that sentiment. According to the company's gaming chief, Sony will follow a "ten-year cycle" with the PS3 that should propel it to the top spot in the industry once it's all said and done.

And while his desire to do that isn't quite rooted in reality, I guess you can't blame a guy for trying.

According to Hirai, Sony is prepared to battle it out in a "marathon" race against Nintendo and Microsoft and he believes his platform has what it takes to win the day.

"I am very confident that after the 10-year life-cycle we will have the installed base that we are looking for and that is obviously to be in the leadership position," he said in an interview.

Sadly, Hirai totally missed it on this one.

According to the latest sales figures, Sony has sold roughly 13 million Playstation 3 units worldwide, while Nintendo has sold 25 million Wiis and Microsoft has sold 19 million Xbox 360s. And while Sony won't cite those figures, it chooses instead to mention "velocity" -- the rate at which its sales are increasing.

There's no debating the fact that Sony sales are stronger and although the Wii still reigns supreme, it's viability is running low and the chances of it maintaining such a lead in the industry is quite slim. All the while, the Xbox 360 is the forgotten player in this market that's still enjoying hearty sales without any major price drop -- a contributing factor to Sony's gain -- in sight.

With that in mind, you're probably wondering why I think the Xbox 360 will take the day when it's all said and done. Suffice it to say that as it stands, Microsoft has the best strategy in place to appeal to the biggest group of gamers and create a greater value proposition for its customers.

Here's why:

Games, games, games

I don't know how many times I've said it on these hallowed pages, but I need to say it again -- games mean everything to hardware sales once the first year in the new console generation is over. By then, everyone who wanted the new hardware has it and everyone else who doesn't want to spend money on something that doesn't entice them, waits for something big.

In previous generations, this is where Sony performed extremely well. With exclusives from Square-Enix and even Rockstar Games, the company was able to enjoy huge upswings in hardware sales prior to and after, the release of major titles like Final Fantasy and Grand Theft Auto. On the other hand, Microsoft and Nintendo were forced to play catch-up with first-party titles and other semi-major hits.

But today, that game has changed. Nintendo is still clinging to the value of its first-party titles and Sony has lost a slew of exclusives, including GTA IV. And although the company still has Killzone 2, Microsoft had Halo 3. Although Sony has Metal Gear Solid 4, Gran Turismo 5, and Little Big Planet, the Xbox 360 lineup of games overall is much stronger.

Of course, you don't need to take my word for it. Kaz Hirai, in a severe understatement, admitted his company has a problem: "There was also some concern in the media and from customers about the lack of titles available at launch."

The way I see it, those problems are still present.

But let's not forget that Nintendo is not innocent in all this. If it weren't for first-party titles, I'm not convinced that the Wii would be nearly as popular as it is today. And now that almost every major Nintendo title is already available, how much longer should we expect the company to enjoy such strong sales?

The online component

There's no debating the fact that in the video game industry, Microsoft reigns supreme in the online space. Over the past few years, Microsoft has single-handedly create an online experience that not only manhandles Nintendo and Sony's attempt at online entertainment, but has millions wanting more. Beyond that, it's an important selling point when customers need to decide between the PS3 or Xbox 360 versions of a title. Let's face it -- wouldn't you rather play GTA IV on Xbox Live?

Sony's online experience is junky, at best. And although it continues to promise more in that arena, it still doesn't seem nearly as focused as it should be. According to Hirai, Blu-ray discs are still the "best and most efficient way to deliver content" and "when you consider that content that plays on PlayStation 3 can go as high as 50GB it's going to be very difficult to deliver 50GB to consumers in some parts of the world in a timely fashion."

In other words, Sony's online experience will continue to stink.

On the other hand, Nintendo is working diligently to look like a company that cares about online gaming, but most of the integration on that front has been mediocre. To make matters worse, the company's online roadmap is practically forgotten and it seems like it's more focused on "innovation in gaming" than anything else. That's a mistake.

Surely, Sony and Nintendo are downplaying the significance of online gaming, but how can they justify that mentality? According to "Online Gaming 2008" from NPD, 42 percent of Americans play games online and more than half of worldwide gamers play online. Among console gamers, more than 50 percent use the Xbox 360 to get their fix. But as NPD notes, "there is still a large, untapped market for gaming in general and online gaming in particular."

Are Nintendo and Sony really willing to forego that opportunity and surrender to Microsoft? It certainly looks that way.

Although it's currently sitting in the second spot, Microsoft's Xbox 360 will come out the winner of this generation as long as it maintains its strong relationship with developers and continues its dominance in the online space. If nothing else, Sony has shown that it will continue to cling to its outdated business model hoping for a redux of the 1990s, while Nintendo will try to stay true to its innovation plan.

That said, I just don't think either of those strategies can last much longer and both companies will be forced to adapt. When that happens, they will try to play Microsoft's game and fail miserably.

Regardless of what's going on right now, Microsoft is in the best position to win this generation's console war. Now we just need to sit back and wait for it to happen.

[DrSpike]

Looks like an MS tool to me.

The core point about games is a fair one for now of course - but the PS3 exclusives like MGS and GT5 aren't here yet.

Striking to see those hardware figures - I hadn't realised just how easily the Wii was winning, or how fast the PS3 was catching the 360.

[asleepathewheel]

although the Wii still reigns supreme, it's viability is running low and the chances of it maintaining such a lead in the industry is quite slim

I've heard this from day 1 of the wii, and here we are 18months later, the wii just outsold in march its two opponents combined in the US, is smashing the ps3 in Japan, and is well ahead in Europe. This guy is expecting that not only will the wii fall to the point of sales equality,that it will actually collapse while the other two won't. This seems to be a bit dubious.

I don't know how many times I've said it on these hallowed pages, but I need to say it again -- games mean everything to hardware sales once the first year in the new console generation is over. By then, everyone who wanted the new hardware has it and everyone else who doesn't want to spend money on something that doesn't entice them, waits for something big.

These rules really don't apply when 1) one console still requires careful searching to purchase and 2) the other two consoles are still in excess of 300$ each after the first year. Applying old notions of console sales to this generation just doesn't make sense.

If it weren't for first-party titles, I'm not convinced that the Wii would be nearly as popular as it is today.

Where would the wii be without wii sports? Probably dreamcasted. But that seems obvious.

And now that almost every major Nintendo title is already available, how much longer should we expect the company to enjoy such strong sales?

At this point, after 18months of wii sales and decent and in some cases massive success of both old properties and new, I think it would be folly to bet against them having a software plan for the post wii-fit year.

Animal crossing, for one, is guaranteed to be a massive hit, and then you have a bevy of the 1-2or 2.5m sellers like pikmin, kid icarus, and star fox to fill the gaps, while a few decent third party games finally show up (MH3, ToS2, FFCC2)

Surely...Nintendo are downplaying the significance of online gaming, but how can they justify that mentality?

Scoreboard?

[snoopy369]

I don't see why the Wii should be compared to the other two; it's quite clearly in another market, and I bet if you look at the 2-console-owner segment, Wii is ahead of either of the two other consoles by a fraction much larger than its sales lead. (How many people have a X360 and a PS3, but no Wii? Conversely, how many have a Wii and one other console? The latter is almost certainly a much larger group.)

The real question is probably what changes in games over the next 5 years (both the programming, and the technology, and the PC technology) will affect the two consoles. Is the X360 going to continue to be the dominant platform technologically, or are there advantages to the PS3 setup that will negate that lead or overtake it? When PCs become more powerful than either machine, which they will certainly be in a few years, and games once again look better on PCs than on consoles (like they did the few years pre-X360), will the X360's similarity to the PC design give it an advantage over PS3 in getting PC->Console port games - and will that be a good thing, or will people prefer the PS3 as a result because the X360 will mostly have games that are also on the PC, while the PS3 focusses on games that are different?

There are a lot of variables... I'd think the X360 has the advantage, but I don't think it's practical to aim 5 to 8 years in the future and guess what is going to happen. Although, if the PS3 isn't going to be updated for 8 more years, I can't see anyone using it in 2016...

[Asher]

Originally posted by DrSpike
Looks like an MS tool to me.

The core point about games is a fair one for now of course - but the PS3 exclusives like MGS and GT5 aren't here yet.

You can actually download GT5 Prologue from the Playstation store. It's a piece of ****, but it's there. Brutally Dreamcast-like online implementation, no car damage, etc...it's all there for GT fans. No one seems to really care about it.

MGS is even worse. MGS Online beta is public, and the online play quite simply sucks. Kojima has already started some damage control as well by stating the graphics on MGS4 aren't where he wanted them to be...

MGS4 is insanely overhyped. It's not a system seller. Interest in the franchise is waning because Kojima can't pace a game to save his life, the plot is worse than a season of 24, and the control and gameplay mechanics have been superceded by other games like Splinter Cell.

Look at the sales:

Metal Gear Solid 1: 5.59 mil
Metal Gear Solid 2: 5.56 mil
Metal Gear Solid 3: 3.97 mil

As the Playstation userbase grew larger, MGS game sales shrunk. The PS3 has an even smaller userbase than the PS2 did for MGS2/3, and most MGS fans already own a PlayStation and those people who've never played a MGS game or don't like them simply aren't interested.

MGS isn't a big deal.

Striking to see those hardware figures - I hadn't realised just how easily the Wii was winning, or how fast the PS3 was catching the 360.

Why is it shocking? Japan and Continental Europe have never liked the Xbox. The PS3 is basically the only "current-gen" gaming console over there.

The 360 has (and continues to increase) a monstrous lead over the PS3 in North America, the PS3 is leading elsewhere.

You already know my opinion of Europeans, so let's not go there.

[Asher]

Originally posted by snoopy369
There are a lot of variables... I'd think the X360 has the advantage, but I don't think it's practical to aim 5 to 8 years in the future and guess what is going to happen. Although, if the PS3 isn't going to be updated for 8 more years, I can't see anyone using it in 2016...

The "10 year lifecycle" doean't mean there won't be a PS4 in ~3 years...it just means the PS3 will still be produced for 10 years. Just like the PS2 is still produced today.

[Asher]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel
I've heard this from day 1 of the wii, and here we are 18months later, the wii just outsold in march its two opponents combined in the US, is smashing the ps3 in Japan, and is well ahead in Europe. This guy is expecting that not only will the wii fall to the point of sales equality,that it will actually collapse while the other two won't. This seems to be a bit dubious.

I don't agree with him that the 360 will outsell the Wii globally. The Wii is simply too cheap and appeals to people who want to "try something new". No, the Wii sells a lot. But in terms of actual use? There's really no contest.

You don't think interest in the Wii has waned at all, while interest in the 360/PS3 is picking up (especially now that GTA is out)?

I'm with snoopy in that I don't think the Wii and 360/PS3 are in the same market. The people who buy and play on the Wii are a different folk in most cases from your prototypical console gamers. If you want proof, look at the sales of Cooking Mama. That's proof that Wii gamers are touched in the head if I've ever seen it.

I'm still pissed off the Wii is 1990s technology selling for hundreds of dollars today. In due time, more people will join me in feeling like the Wii's an underpowered machine. The least Nintendo could've done is spent a couple more bucks on more accurate sensor chips. The controls are twitchy and insufferable, the longer I've owned the Wii the more I've grown to hate the Wiimote. It's just too ****ing imprecise.

[asleepathewheel]

I think its difficult to argue that the wii is waning until it stops selling out in the US and its sales drop due to demand rather than supply issues.

You can argue quality of this and that all you want, and I agree with many of your points, but this guy is strictly talking hardware sales numbers.

[Asher]

The one thing monthly sales of hardware don't take into account is longevity. I think it's pretty obvious that more people buy Wiis, play Wii Sports for a while, then let them sit and collect dust. Meanwhile, 360 games continue to shatter entertainment records in terms of rapid sales, and Xbox Live is far and away the #1 online gaming service in the world.

While the Wii is selling more per month, I don't think any reasonable person would question the assertion that people are playing the 360 a lot more. To me, that means interest in the 360 is higher. A huge number of Wii purchasers bought it because they were curious. I've got two Wii consoles in my apartment -- no joke. One hasn't been used since last year, the other one hasn't been used since I played SSBM for a couple hours when it came out (and will never play it again).

[DrSpike]

Asher loves the Wii so much he bought two.

[asleepathewheel]

Sure, but again, he apparently defined "console war winner" by the hardware sales, not by games played or sold. I have no problem if he or you argue that the winner is through software sold or usage or revenue generated and anointed the 360. There are different metrics for success, some the Wii is clearly head and shoulders above the competitors, in other ways its clearly way behind (and physically impossible to remedy)