Console Wars - the revenge

[DrSpike]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel


I got crackdown the other day. Really like it, one of the more enjoyable 360 games for me. probably about 1/3rd through (taken out 1 gang).

I only played it quickly but I thought it was pretty average. Maybe I'll check it out again at some point.

[DrSpike]

Originally posted by Asher
In the end, this is how I view it:

Wii: Nowhere to go but down. Aging hardware and gimmicky control scheme will wear off. People point at games like RE4 and Red Steel as examples of how the Wii can succeed. But when you look at subsequent games (eg, Umbrella Chronicles), people aren't buying it. The idea of playing games like that sound better than the actual experience of it on the Wii. And once you've played one shooting game on the Wii, you've played them all. The hardware is a massive limitation.

360: Still on the rise. Outstanding software/hardware sales (look at the revenue difference vs the Wii, it's staggering). Has more growth potential than the Wii both technically and socially with games such as SceneIt doing better than expected. Improved reliability and sure to be a price cut soon that'll move a lot more units in Spring now that they're good with the 65nm consoles.

PS3: Time to hit the panic button. Games are selling brutally bad. Hardware units are well behind everyone else, STILL. New SKUs, radical pricecuts, and still no traction. Even though they still sold almost 800,000 units in December, people clearly aren't buying the PS3 for gaming in many (most?) cases. UT3 sold what, 100,000 copies in its first exclusive month in DECEMBER? That's just PATHETIC. Uncharted, R&C, etc all sell terribly consistently also. And those are big exclusives. Already at the bottom, isn't getting any better from what I can tell.

On the 360 points I have to completely agree - there doesn't seem to be an end to the quality games that are out/coming out, and although the hardware is constant developers seem to be using it better all the time.

Wii: Nowhere but down? I suppose that is true for anything that's doing incredibly well, on hardware sales at least. As usual you are overly dismissing the Wii - I'm not sure about the US market but here the Wii is still flying off the shelf the minute stock comes in. I can see this continuing for the near future at least.

I had the pleasure of playing some Wii this Christmas when visiting some old school friends with families. The kids absolutely love it, and I wonder if this demographic (a key one for the Wii) is just one you aren't in touch with.

Having seen it I agree the hardware will become increasingly obselete from a gamers perspective, but my mates and their kids aren't going to care to be honest, so my prediction is continued strength for the Wii sales for this year. Sure they wont sell as many games as the Xbox but such is life.

PS3: It doesn't look good, but some stronger games will come out soon, and current 360 software sales are at least in part a reflection of the fact that it's hitting the sweet spot where its full potential (or close) is being used. Also, if they are seen to win the format war this should give them a boost.

So on balance I'm slightly more optimistic than you, but I'm far from convinced and think this is a pretty crucial year for Sony.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Asher
In the end, this is how I view it:

Wii: Nowhere to go but down. Aging hardware and gimmicky control scheme will wear off.

Nintendo has three of the biggest games of the generation coming out in 08, Brawl, Mario Kart, and wii fit. Nothing announced besides GTAIV (and that is going to be split at least 70-30) can globally compete with any of those three sales wise.

Originally posted by Asher
But when you look at subsequent games (eg, Umbrella Chronicles), people aren't buying it.

Umbrella Chronicles is a rail gun game that is going to blow past the publisher's expectations. I'm not seeing how that's a failure, its a friggin rail gun game. Not exactly a hot niche of gaming. I have it, its a fantastic game, one of my favorites on the wii.

Originally posted by Asher
360: Still on the rise. Outstanding software/hardware sales (look at the revenue difference vs the Wii, it's staggering).

Of course is staggering, the console costs$100 more and the top games cost at least $10 more.

Originally posted by Asher
SceneIt doing better than expected.

What are the numbers on Scene IT? I haven't seen anything related to its sales.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by flash9286
Looking at the numbers it seems Rock Band won't be challenging Guitar Hero's dominance anytime soon.

Ignoring the hottest selling console on the market is not a way to narrow the market share gap.

[Spaced Cowboy]

Yes, i agree, I think Asher is not in touch with the Wii demographic.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Spaced Cowboy
Yes, i agree, I think Asher is not in touch with the Wii demographic.

I try not to mingle with toddlers and retirees.

[Asher]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel
Nintendo has three of the biggest games of the generation coming out in 08, Brawl, Mario Kart, and wii fit. Nothing announced besides GTAIV (and that is going to be split at least 70-30) can globally compete with any of those three sales wise.

WiiFit as one of the BIGGEST GAMES OF THE GENERATION? You just blew my mind. I may not be in touch with the Wii demographic, but you're not in touch with reality.

Brawl will sell very, very well.

Mario Kart looks like ass, will sell decently but I don't think it'll be one of the biggest selling games of the generation... Am I the only one here who played Double Dash? That series is going downhill at a good clip. It peaked at Mario Kart 64.

Umbrella Chronicles is a rail gun game that is going to blow past the publisher's expectations. I'm not seeing how that's a failure, its a friggin rail gun game. Not exactly a hot niche of gaming. I have it, its a fantastic game, one of my favorites on the wii.

Aren't rail gun type games one of the main types with the Wii? The whole gimmicky controls thing with no depth.

What are the numbers on Scene IT? I haven't seen anything related to its sales.

It's at 250,000 last I checked. Well, well above expectations.

[Asher]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel


Ignoring the hottest selling console on the market is not a way to narrow the market share gap.

Problem with this is simple:
1) Try playing Rock Band reliably in SD. That's difficult.
2) Wii software sales for non-Nintendo games aren't that great. The fact that Rock Band is a pricey game compared to the Wii, full of small children and retirees (is this the "demographic" you refer to?), and I don't see why it'd sell well at all.

Even if it was released on the Wii, I think it'd clearly be the 3rd best selling platform (eg, last place).

The sell rate of the hardware doesn't matter if the software's sell rate is much lower and there's less units to play the game anyway. You make it sound like if they had put it on the Wii like GH3, it'd be a lot more successful, which is simply absurd.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Asher

WiiFit as one of the BIGGEST GAMES OF THE GENERATION? You just blew my mind. I may not be in touch with the Wii demographic, but you're not in touch with reality.

Its already at over a million (1.1) in Japan and is not losing any steam, I can't fathom what will happen to it once its out in the US and on Oprah. I know the mere thought makes your skin crawl

Wii Fit is the Nintendogs or the Brain Training of the Wii. And it is going to sell ****loads. I expect it to finish in the top 15 of this generations (non handheld) games.

Originally posted by Asher
Mario Kart looks like ass, will sell decently but I don't think it'll be one of the biggest selling games of the generation... Am I the only one here who played Double Dash? That series is going downhill at a good clip. It peaked at Mario Kart 64.

I refer you to Mario Kart DS.

Originally posted by Asher
It's at 250,000 last I checked. Well, well above expectations.

Thanks. Probably pretty good from an investment perspective, but not a real chart burner.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Asher

Problem with this is simple:
1) Try playing Rock Band reliably in SD. That's difficult.
2) Wii software sales for non-Nintendo games aren't that great. The fact that Rock Band is a pricey game compared to the Wii, full of small children and retirees (is this the "demographic" you refer to?), and I don't see why it'd sell well at all.

GH3 has sold over a million on the Wii, and is in a continual state of sell out. Whatever problems would plague rockband on the wii would plague gh3 and haven't demonstrably injured its sales.

Originally posted by Asher
You make it sound like if they had put it on the Wii like GH3, it'd be a lot more successful, which is simply absurd.

Yes, I think its obvious that if they put RB on the Wii it would have increased its overall sales by a minimum of 20-30%, maybe even more depending on production issues.

You can't seriously think otherwise, can you?

[Asher]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel
Its already at over a million (1.1) in Japan and is not losing any steam, I can't fathom what will happen to it once its out in the US and on Oprah. I know the mere thought makes your skin crawl

Wii Fit is the Nintendogs or the Brain Training of the Wii. And it is going to sell ****loads. I expect it to finish in the top 15 of this generations (non handheld) games.

I don't consider it a game, first of all. Not any more of a game than Tie-Bo or whatever it was called.

Second of all, I sincerely hope people are not stupid enough to buy that piece of ****. What's the point? If you want to exercise, get a bike, you don't need an overpriced piece of plastic with annoying Japanese-style commentary to lose your mantits.

And success in Japan doesn't mean success elsewhere. Look at Pocket Monsters, which is way way more successful than Wii Fit in Japan...

GH3 has sold over a million on the Wii, and is in a continual state of sell out. Whatever problems would plague rockband on the wii would plague gh3 and haven't demonstrably injured its sales.

This is demonstrably false. You're fitting four instruments on a screen. GH3 doesn't do that. It'd be hard to see what you're doing in SD. It IS hard to see what you're doing in SD on the 360/PS3 in Rock Band.

Yes, I think its obvious that if they put RB on the Wii it would have increased its overall sales by a minimum of 20-30%, maybe even more depending on production issues.

You can't seriously think otherwise, can you?

I most certainly do. For starters, Rock Band isn't in stock ANYWHERE I can see. The problem isn't lack of demand, it's lack of supply.

2nd, I don't think increasing it by 20% would in any way validate your comment about making it competitive with GH3.

[vovan]

Originally posted by DrSpike
The point that was being made in the other thread (which I think you are referring to) was rather than given the impressive hardware sales (which continue) the Wii games aren't selling as much as you would think.

Ah, good point.

Also, if someone would care to enlighten me as to what this attach rate y'all are going on about actually is, that would be sweet. (I'd guess from the context, the average number of games sold per console sold, or some such?)

[vovan]

Originally posted by Asher
And success in Japan doesn't mean success elsewhere.

QFT. Crazy Japanese.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Asher

I don't consider it a game, first of all. Not any more of a game than Tie-Bo or whatever it was called.

Second of all, I sincerely hope people are not stupid enough to buy that piece of ****. What's the point? If you want to exercise, get a bike, you don't need an overpriced piece of plastic with annoying Japanese-style commentary to lose your mantits.

I'm going to buy two copies just to spite you!

Originally posted by Asher
And success in Japan doesn't mean success elsewhere. Look at Pocket Monsters, which is way way more successful than Wii Fit in Japan...

What? Pokemon Diamond was #6 in sales this year in the us. I'm not sure where Pearl was, but its pretty clear that combined the two sold in excess of 3.5 million copies this year.

Originally posted by Asher
This is demonstrably false. You're fitting four instruments on a screen. GH3 doesn't do that. It'd be hard to see what you're doing in SD. It IS hard to see what you're doing in SD on the 360/PS3 in Rock Band.

Seems more an issue of screen size than hd-sd. I have a 20 in lcd that I shudder to think what splitting it 4 ways would look like.

Originally posted by Asher
2nd, I don't think increasing it by 20% would in any way validate your comment about making it competitive with GH3.

Denying that the gap between the two would be reduced is ridiculous. I think whomever made the decision not to push a wii version has been regretting it.

[Asher]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel
Seems more an issue of screen size than hd-sd. I have a 20 in lcd that I shudder to think what splitting it 4 ways would look like.

You seriously can't comprehend what impact resolution has when you need to fit more detail on the screen?

Denying that the gap between the two would be reduced is ridiculous.

It is absolutely true that expanding the platforms it's available on will increase potential platforms. Of course, someone who follows such things would recognize the problem with Rock Band is not the lack of demand, but the lack of production capacity and shipping logistics. Such a person would surely recognize that claiming further straining production/shipment resources for yet another platform would actually not have any reasonable impact, but would increase base costs. Again! The problem isn't lack of demand, but lack of supply. And producing it for yet another platform doesn't solve this problem.

I think whomever made the decision not to push a wii version has been regretting it.

I VERY much doubt it. It can always come later. Taking resources away from PS3/Xbox 360 versions on a new franchise would be a mistake. The fact that they can't make/ship enough units still for the PS3/Xbox 360 also lends credence to the idea that making it for Wii at launch was a mistake. Simply makes no sense. At all.

They can always add it later, but you seem to think developing games is easy and cheap. With Nintendo, they add in the fun of being anal with high royalties, low support, and strong-armed production restrictions.

But, it all comes down to this: the bottleneck in sales is production and shipping logistics, not platform support. I'd say your comments re: RB are fundamentally misguided.