Console Wars - the revenge

[UnOrthOdOx]

Originally posted by Asher
I most certainly do. For starters, Rock Band isn't in stock ANYWHERE I can see. The problem isn't lack of demand, it's lack of supply.

Really?

The local Wal Mart, Target, Best Buy, and FYE have STACKS of them for both systems.

Maybe Utah just doesn't like it?

Edit: Appears to be in stock at Amazon.com too.

[Asher]

Originally posted by UnOrthOdOx

Really?

The local Wal Mart, Target, Best Buy, and FYE have STACKS of them for both systems.

Maybe Utah just doesn't like it?

Maybe...they didn't even start arriving in Canada until a couple weeks ago. WAY late due to supply problems.

So judging the December sales for the game as an indicator of demand is, well, stupid.

[Asher]

http://www.amazon.ca/SEP-Rock-Band-Special-Edition/dp/B000TT4GBG/ref=pd_sim_gw?ie=UTF8&qid=1200677002&sr=8-1

Out of stock.

http://www.bestbuy.ca/catalog/proddetail.asp?logon=&langid=EN&sku_id=0926INGFS10096824&catid=23380

Out of stock.

It may be different now in the states, but it certainly wasn't widely available in December...

[UnOrthOdOx]

lol...ran across this.

http://www.coolest-gadgets.com/20080113/fog-machine-and-light-show-coming-to-rock-band-later-this-year/

You guys might not know this about me, but I’m a huge Rock Band fanatic. I’ve met a lot of the gang at Harmonix and even rocked out in their Star Chamber. Trust me when I say you won’t find a place that’s more fun to hang out than there. Needless to say, my friends and I spend a lot of time rocking out. I’ve bought a mic stand, a drum throne and my own pair of drumsticks, but that’s really the extent of my extra hardware purchases for the game. Since you can’t currently buy standalone instruments, there aren’t a lot of extras to buy (aside from more songs). That’s going to change in the future, as GameStop has let slip a new kit that will add some effects to your show.


Specifically, this Rock Band Stage Kit will add lights and a fog machine to your performances. Supposedly the lights are going to be synced up with the music you’re playing. I’m a little torn on this one. My dad is a musician, so I can appreciate a good set of lights, but you don’t want to overdo it. In my opinion, a fog machine is overdoing it. That aside, I can’t really picture myself rocking out in my living room with something like this going. I think that it would be cool if you were having a tournament somewhere public, or you wanted to shoot a cool video. If this sort of thing would rock your world, you’ll be able to pick it up (allegedly) on 6/23/2008 for $99.99.

Fog juice would get expensive if you're using that much. Though I highly doubt it's a good quality fog machine.

[UnOrthOdOx]

Originally posted by Asher

http://www.amazon.ca/SEP-Rock-Band-Special-Edition/dp/B000TT4GBG/ref=pd_sim_gw?ie=UTF8&qid=1200677002&sr=8-1

Out of stock.

http://www.bestbuy.ca/catalog/proddetail.asp?logon=&langid=EN&sku_id=0926INGFS10096824&catid=23380

Out of stock.

It may be different now in the states, but it certainly wasn't widely available in December...

You crazy canadians.


Outside the PS2 version, there wasn't any huge lacking locally that I saw. In fact, the 360/ps3 version was a featured product for most stores in the after-christmas sales. Since it was in the print adds, I gotta think that was more a national trend than just a local one, but I can't be 100% sure.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by vovan


Ah, good point.

Also, if someone would care to enlighten me as to what this attach rate y'all are going on about actually is, that would be sweet. (I'd guess from the context, the average number of games sold per console sold, or some such?)

You would be correct as far as I understand... number of games console owners own on average. Your average Wii owner has less than four games, your average 360 owner has something around seven. That judges the profit of the game manufacturers. (Attach rate is only partially meaningful when you don't also include actual hardware sold; one major thing it doesn't measure is people who buy a console, one game, and then don't keep going. If a console sold 3x as many HW as another, and had 1/2 the attach rate, that still means 150% of the SW sales, and it's possible even the true attach rate is similar if 1/2 of the folks who buy console A never buy a game for it.)

It's interesting separate from console sales, because folks who buy more games have different buying patterns than those who buy fewer games. Particularly, mature gamers often buy more games (hence why i'd assume the 360 should have a higher attach rate, it's a more mature demographic), and mature gamers might be more likely to buy a less mainstream game than younger gamers who often are more affected by current publicity/fads. Mature gamers often were affected by fads ten years ago, and so will play games that aren't popular 'now'.

[Kuciwalker]

Asher's attach rate arguments are somewhat misleading though: attach rate should constantly increase over the life of the console, just like units sold, so the Xbox's advantage is explainable as a consequence of the extra year it's had.

[DrSpike]

That's a good point actually - though as usual he's exaggerating rather than flat out wrong. The Wii attach rate should improve over time, but I doubt it will ever match the 360, even if you adjust for time since release.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Asher's attach rate arguments are somewhat misleading though: attach rate should constantly increase over the life of the console, just like units sold, so the Xbox's advantage is explainable as a consequence of the extra year it's had.

exactly. attachment rates compared with ownership months is a more interesting and useful measurement than merely dividing software by hardware on a specific date. This way of calculating is even more important and relevant when the launches are staggered by a year as is the case between 360 and wii and 360 and ps3.

Of course, as time goes by, and more consoles are in homes, attachment rates become increasingly irrelevant and become the province of poor hardware performers like the gamecube. For example, the ps2 would have to sell what, 120m software units to increase their attach rate by 1. San Andreas' 14m bumped up the rate by a fraction. Compare to Melee or Halo2 on their respective consoles. Even though the attach rate bump was considerably less, SA sold around what the other two combined did.

In some ways, trumpeting the 360 attach rate is a negative-it shows that hardware growth is lagging, which you can clearly see from the 2007 pre Halo3 sales. Certainly if the 360 enjoyed the Wii's growth over the past year, the attach rate would be much lower, though overall software sales would be higher.

I expect these trends to continue, 360 with a historical attach rate, but I expect the Wii to sell more software worldwide in 2008 and beyond.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Asher's attach rate arguments are somewhat misleading though: attach rate should constantly increase over the life of the console, just like units sold, so the Xbox's advantage is explainable as a consequence of the extra year it's had.

It is not unusual at all for attach rates to drop after the first year or so. More consoles are bought as replacements or second-hand, the used game sales increase, people who buy at lower pricepoints tend to be less hardcore and don't buy as many games, etc.

Edit: Let's also discuss the obvious...

1) The wii has more hardware sold worldwide than the 360, correct? So why is the "year head start" relevant at all when the user base is larger, and users buy games and not time?
2) The wii has cheaper games, another advantage here
3) Why don't you compare the 360 last year to the wii this year? Last year the 360 (Nov 2006) was ~5-1 What's the Wii at now?

[vovan]

Thanks for the explanations, fellas, however, these raised more questions.

First of all, I am guessing renting doesn't figure into the attach rate? Actually, I am not even sure whether renters pay just a one-time fee to get the game, or some sort of fee-per-rental. What I do know is that I own 8 games, but have played far more, through gamefly.

And this leads me to the second question. I said I own 8 games. That's 8 little green boxes I brought in from the local gamestop. But I also own a few live arcade games. So, are those counted for the attach rate? What about the Xbox originals that have recently made their way to the marketplace? It would seem kind of strange (to me), if both the $60 Halo 3 or CoD4, and the $10 Bomberman or Worms counted the same towards this attach rate.

[Asher]

Arcade games don't play into it. Nor do Xbox originals. It's strictly how many Xbox 360 games have been purchased (by blockbuster, by you, etc).

So your attach rate is 8:1.

[Kuciwalker]

1) The wii has more hardware sold worldwide than the 360, correct? So why is the "year head start" relevant at all when the user base is larger, and users buy games and not time?
2) The wii has cheaper games, another advantage here
3) Why don't you compare the 360 last year to the wii this year? Last year the 360 (Nov 2006) was ~5-1 What's the Wii at now?

1) Users don't buy all their games at once - they buy games over time, and as the games come out. The Wii is doubly penalized because a) it doesn't have as many games out and b) the owners haven't had as long to build their collection.
2) Not much of one.
3) I haven't found that number in ~5 minutes of searching, and I actually don't care - because I'm more than willing to admit the 360's advantage over the Wii. But comparing historical attach rates is a very different argument from the one you've been making on this board - and the one that I advocated.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Asher

You seriously can't comprehend what impact resolution has when you need to fit more detail on the screen?

Its negligible and 99% of wii consumers are not going to care.

Oh, and Wii Music is going to be four player split screen. That is going to be the wii sports/wii fit of 2009, easily outselling rockband.

Originally posted by Asher
It is absolutely true that expanding the platforms it's available on will increase potential platforms. Of course, someone who follows such things would recognize the problem with Rock Band is not the lack of demand, but the lack of production capacity and shipping logistics. Such a person would surely recognize that claiming further straining production/shipment resources for yet another platform would actually not have any reasonable impact, but would increase base costs. Again! The problem isn't lack of demand, but lack of supply. And producing it for yet another platform doesn't solve this problem.

There's no shortage on RB from what I can tell in the US, though, again, I live in one of the strongest markets, there are copies of both console versions everytime I go to best buy. Close to x-mas, the 360 version sold out, but the ps3 version never did, to my knowledge. There was literally a stack of 50 360 rb's for at least a week lining one of the walls near the registers.

[Asher]

asleep: If you didn't hear about RB shortages, I guess you didn't follow the gaming news over the holidays. And yes, the fact that you live in one of the largest markets had a big role on it since the main issue was logistics and transportation in getting it to the smaller markets.

As I said, Canada didn't get it til the end of December at all. It was scheduled for a day & date release with the US.

Anyway, more numbers: total revenue in 2007 per platforms in the US:

Xbox 360: $4.8 billion
Wii: $3.5 billion
PS3: $2.2 billion.